The Life of Brian

Moving Day!

2011-04-22T13:19:00.003-04:00

Hey everyone, please find your way over to Faddasy Baseball, where I'll be focusing exclusively on all fantasy baseball. All politics and media will be organized in two separate areas of the blogosphere. Thanks for all the support and I look forward to talking with you all soon!

First Basemen: 2010 Fantasy Projections

2010-01-03T14:21:00.006-05:00

Last year, I professed my unabashed man-crush on Pablo Sandoval. So it's only fitting that he's my "value pick" at first base according to my points-per-plate appearance calibration (using statistical projections from the 2010 Bill James Handbook). Displayed in the previous link is the point breakdown in a standard points league. My approach to deciphering value is based on draft position, depth, and potential for at-bats.

Last year, for example, Joey Votto's projected .91 fantasy points per plate-appearance put him above annual stars like Justin Morneau (.86), Kevin Youkilis (.85), and Carlos Pena (.87). However, as we all discovered, Joey Votto didn't live up to his potential due to injury (for more on this projection, see last year's article).

2010's central difference is the influx of .90 pts/pa first base-eligible batters. Last year, only 7 players satisfied this requirement: Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, Miguel Cabrera, Lance Berkman, Mark Teixeira, Prince Fielder, and Votto. This year, however, 13 players surpass this threshold, nearly doubling the list of "effective" first base options.

Joining the seven players from 2009 in this group are Mark Reynolds (.99), Pablo Sandoval (.90), David Ortiz (.90), Adam Dunn (.90), Justin Morneau (.90), and *surprise* Chris Davis (.90).

Of the 13 players projected to average the most points per plate-appearance, I'd absolutely stay away from Chris Davis. Last year he was hyped to an ADP between the 5th and 7th rounds, an atmosphere WAY too high for a rookie... I don't care how much he looked like Shane Spencer in his initial September call-up. In points-based-leagues, the value at this position is coming by way of Pablo Sandoval, Joey Votto, and Adam Dunn (in leagues that do not penalize strikeouts!). Pujols, Howard, Cabrera, Teixeira, and Fielder will all be gone before round two is complete in most drafts (under-statement of the century) and Berkman's name, Morneau's ability, and Mark Reynolds' 2009 will be the next 1B off the board. At this point, in a standard 12-team league, four teams will be without first basemen, leaving fantasy favorites Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis, Kendry Morales, and Carlos Pena available.

My advice? Let them go. Fill in the rest of your roster while the other members of your league fill up on the position. While they grab 1B, fill in your OF or pitching staff. Some will value Votto a bit more than players like Pena and Morales, but unless your peers view Sandoval as a solid 3B option, he should slip into the later rounds. Other than a brief stint on the bench with a sore back in 2009, Sandoval was one of the most reliable 1B options available.

Now comes the bad news: players to avoid based on pts/pa. I think this is the point were everyone stops expecting anything from James Loney (.76/pa). Essentially, the calibration equates him to Lyle Overbay (.75/pa)... aka, he's useless in a points league. If he's a singles-hitter, he needs more RBI opportunities, and with Manny Ramirez, Andre Ethier, and Matt Kemp on his team... he's not going to get many.

The same can be said for Nick Swisher (.82), Russell Branyan (.82), and Michael Cuddyer (.82). Rather than spend mid-round picks on each of these streaky batters, grab a younger potential-laden player like Garrett Jones (.85) in the later rounds... especially due to his multi-position eligibility (OF/1B).

In the end, if you take anything from this 2010 first base projection, let it be that you can wait this year. In 2009, if you didn't grab an early 1B, you were in a bad place to start the year. In 2010, you can afford to wait. As always, let your opponents make your decisions for you, it's easier that way.

Jackass Much? Media Ethics Come into Question

2009-09-17T00:43:00.007-04:00

I'm sure we're all up to speed on President Obama's "off-the-record" comments about Kanye West's antics at the MTV Video Music Awards. For those who have no clue what I'm talking about, here's a link that will get you up to speed.

Today, CNN released the video aid to the President's comment...

After the words left President Obama's mouth you could see his eyebrows shoot off his face. He could tell he may have made a boo-boo and frantically tried to eye everyone in the room as he begged that it be off the record and that the President be given "some slack."

The reason for Obama's frantic nature was not unwarranted... before a minute could pass, the following message hit more than a handful of "newsfeeds" on Twitter.com:

First of all, thanks Terry Moran! I hope you ethical obligations as a journalist flying out the window were worth the thousands of "followers" you picked up over the last few days! Though ABC's Moran attempted to remove the "tweet," he failed miserably.

I originally read Moran's tweet on Tuesday afternoon via the Drudge Report, which didn't surprise me. Matt Drudge never met a salacious story he didn't like... especially with a Democratic President involved. BUT, I didn't think much of it. I thought it was awesome that Obama watched the MTV Movie Awards and, like everyone else, was shocked by the Kanye outburst.

Later that evening, as I drove in bumper-to-bumper traffic on Sunrise Highway, 1010 WINS' (1010 AM, New York) evening anchor broke the story as "something we shouldn't know... but we do... so we're telling you." I nearly veered off the road when I heard this. Was this "off-the-record" comment really making drive time news casts? More so, what are the ethical implications of breeching an "off-the-record" comment?

Obviously, Terry Moran was in the wrong here. The video clearly shows President Obama frantically attempt to quell the cantor throughout the room before it even began. Moran, however, completed his witty tweet...

Now...

Is it okay that CNN, and the other major players in the network news realm took this breech and ran with it? The video above was obviously just scrap that was meant to be cut for the evening news... not something that would hit national news coverage by this evening!

I've personally experienced comments like this while covering MLB, NBA, and NHL games. Sure, sometimes athletes say funny things between "on-the-record" comments. But, does that mean I try to make a name for myself by telling the Internet what David Ortiz really thinks about Manny Ramirez? No. I don't have a relationship with Ortiz, but I still respect his privacy in an "off-the-record" basis. It's just something I thought was journalism 101...

AOL... Too Little, Too Late

2009-09-08T15:22:00.011-04:00

This afternoon, I read through an New York Times article by Miguel Helft (linked here) about America Online's (AOL) attempt to 'fix' itself. The company is bringing in former Yahoo! Executive, Brad Garlinghouse, to straight-shoot the higher-ups and tell them what exactly is wrong with the former Internet juggernaut.

In his article, Helft describes Garlinghouse's new role with America Online:

"In his new role, Mr. Garlinghouse will lead the effort to expand the reach of AOL’s popular e-mail and instant-messaging services. He will also head the company’s Silicon Valley operations, which AOL plans to expand, and lead the West Coast arm of AOL Ventures, a unit in charge of investing in start-ups and spinning off businesses."

This description brought me back to my high school years, when everyone and their brother (literally) was on AOL's Instant Messenger (AIM). Yahoo! attempted to replicate this (Yahoo! Messenger) in the early new millennium, but failed to capture the momentum and, virtual, monopoly that AIM possessed. Essentially, AOL had something that everyone wanted in its AIM product.

When I went to college, AIM was replaced by face-to-face interaction. Afterall, the people with whom I "messaged" lived within a 3 minute walk of my bedroom... and I much preferred to talk to people in person while soaking in the sun than reading their text in my dim, cold dorm room. But this is not more than an isolated case. For me, AIM died when I went to college.

Once college ended and I came back home to Long Island, I considered myself a "messaging" free agent. There were a variety of tools at my disposal. AIM was still waiting for me... but I felt I had outgrown this "adolescent" utility. I looked ahead to the possibilities of Google's "gchat" and Facebook's Instant Messenger. It appears I am not alone, though. Helft continues as he mentions commentary of AOL Chairperson, Tim Armstrong:

"In an interview on Monday, Mr. Armstrong said that communications products, which include e-mail and instant-messaging services, remained one of AOL’s most important assets, keeping customers engaged and helping drive traffic to other AOL properties. But in that area too, AOL faces challenges. Its e-mail service was recently overtaken by Google’s Gmail, which became the No. 3 e-mail service in the United States, behind Yahoo Mail and Hotmail, owned by Microsoft."

I believe that Gmail did what AOL was afraid to do: they took off the training wheels. For years I've been trying to convince my mother to get rid of AOL because it was everything that's wrong with the Internet: it charged you for something that should be free and it over-simplified the Internet.

Not only does Gmail offer (free) e-mail service, but the iGoogle interface allows you to make

your homepage whatever you want. It's RSS Feed friendly and does whatever YOU want it to do. Want a video of goldfish eating to greet you everytime you sign on? Done. Want to see that kid singing "Chocolate Rain" when you turn on your browser? Done. Do you want your e-mail server to identify "work mail" and "family mail" before you even open it? Done.

Most of all... do you want all these options for free?

This is what AOL needs to grasp. Actually, this is what they needed to grasp, because they've begun a downward spiral. There will be some people who continue to use AIM and AOL, but this article's note that Google's Gmail has displaced AOL on the e-mail popularity list notes the beginning of the end of AIM's stranglehold on Instant Messaging utilities.

To conclude, it will be interesting to see what Mr. Garlinghouse brings forth to retrieve AOL from it's current rut. To be certain, it will have to be a somewhat novel idea because Google has essentially taken what AOL birthed... and made it better.

Brazilian Movie Update: "The Motorcycle Diaries"

2009-09-02T09:54:00.007-04:00

Gael García Bernal stars in Walter Salles' 2004 Diarios de Motocicleta ("Motorcycle Diaries"), the biopic of Ernesto 'Che' Guevara's memoir's during the summer of his 23rd year (1952). During this trip, Guevara motorcycled across South America with his friend Alberto Granado (Rodrigo De la Serna) who's main goal through this journey is to see as much of Latin America as he was able to before his 30th birthday.

For backstory, Guevara is a semester away from graduating medical school. He and Granado both know that the future is looming and this may be their last chance to do something "selfish" or "out-there." This is noted almost immediately, when Guevara's father takes the youth aside and tells him that he's jealous and regrets not doing anything like this during his life.

The film is almost a tale of two movies. The first half deals with two men enjoying themselves on the open road. They are the focus of the film. Guevara's love interests, Granado's wacky antics all come to the forefront as we see a great deal of character development at the on-set of the film. However, once the duo journey's to Chile, where they encounter a poor mining couple, the film becomes more about social injustice and poverty throughout Latin America.

The rest of the film is truly moving. Guevara's demeanor makes a 180-degree turn, as the focus changes from our main characters to the side characters they meet throughout their journeys. The mining couple was the spark, but the full change comes when they reach Peru. While there, Guevara and Grenado work at a leper community. During their three weeks (as told during a speech by the director of the community), Guevara repeatedly breaks the community's 'rules' about interacting with the lepers. During one of the most moving scenes of the film, Guevara's words and actions result in a soccer game between the medical staff and the lepers... though, initially, they were not allowed to touch each other without wearing full body protection.

The film ends with Guevara and Grenado going their separate ways. Grenado has been offered a residency program where he can finally "settle down" by getting a "job and a girlfriend," as Guevara states. Guevara tells him, before departing back to Buenas Ares, that he's not the same person and something has changed inside him. Obviously, the movie need-not go into detail, as history tells us what exactly has changed inside Guevara as he becomes one of the most influential people in world history during the remain years of his life and beyond.

Overall, my lack of initial research left me in the dark for the beginning part of the film. I didn't realize that Motorcycle Diaries was a biopic about Che Guevara until much later in the film when words like "communist," "social injustice," and "revolution" were being discussed by Guevara. Whether or not you realize the premise of the film, it was really good. I highly recommend it to anyone who's interested in biopics or quality foreign films, period.

Second Half Players: Aubrey Huff

2009-07-14T11:05:00.005-04:00

July is already halfway over is it's time to start looking for those notorious "second-half-studs." Scanning over the last two seasons, using OPS as my guide, I found two constants that could be had a potentially moderate price.

Aubrey Huff should be owned in all fantasy leagues. He's not a guy who you're going to just 'pick up' from waivers without giving up anything substantive. To date, Huff started out like a bat from hell in 2009. Recently, though, his numbers have been dipping. His once-.300 batting average has dipped to Elvis Andrus territory at .250, and he's seemingly been stuck on 11 home runs forever!

Rewind to 2007, Huff slugged 8 home runs in August. On top of that, he scored 19 runs and drove in 19 RBIs of his own. His OPS was an astronomical 1.135, placing him in vintage David Ortiz, Alex Rodriguez, and David Wright territory.

In hopes that 2007 was not an aberration, we look to August 2008, when, you guess it, Huff clubbed 8 home runs (...again...), scored 20 runs, and drove in 26 RBIs. His 1.056 OPS, again, placed him fractions of a point away from the 2008 AL MVP, Dustin Pedroia (1.060).

Officially, I suggest you chase Aubrey Huff. He shouldn't take much to land in a deal because he's stumbled into the All-Star Break. The one caveat surrounding Huff is that he's in a contract year and is highly likely to be traded within the next several weeks. If he goes to a team like the Mets or the Mariners, he'll be hard pressed to club 8 home runs in such a huge home ballpark. That all said... I still think he's a worthwhile investment for your team down the stretch... especially in August.

Fantasy Man-Crush: Pablo "Kung Fu Panda" Sandoval

2009-07-01T19:52:00.003-04:00

This one's overdue. Up until today, there's been one "official" Life of Brian man-crush: Nick Markakis. Today, we expand the population to two with the addition of Pablo Sandoval.

Several months ago, I drafted Sandoval hoping he would attain catcher eligibility for the Giants within the first few weeks of the 2009 season. However, much to my chagrin... catcher eligibility never came for the Kung Fu Panda... in fact, it still hasn't arrived.

But...

I'm okay with it. Yes, it was hard for me deal with nagging groin and elbow injuries combined with bouts of the flu early on. For all the hardship Sadoval delivered early on this year, he's paid off in dividends when healthy.

...which has been for some time now. It's kind of hard to believe, but the 22 year-old Venezuelan is still a rookie for the San Francisco Giants. Masking this fact is Sandoval's current (as of 7-1-2009) .338 BA, 11 home runs, and .958 OPS on the season. To give you an idea of how good that is, here's a list of the Top-5 First basemen in BA and OPS for the season:

Batting Average (at least 250 ABs)

1. Pablo Sandoval -- .338

2. Miggy Cabrera -- .332

3. Albert Pujols -- .332

4. Victor Martinez -- .313

5. Justin Morneau -- .312

On-Base + Slugging (at least 250 ABs)

1. Albert Pujols -- 1.197

2. Prince Fielder -- 1.034

3. Adrian Gonzalez -- 1.001

4. Justin Morneau -- .975

5. Pablo Sandoval -- .958

I'm not going to repeat this chore for third base for one reason and one reason only: LOOK AT THE NAMES ON THESE LISTS!!! Seriously, this kid is hanging with the big boys of the most potent position in baseball.

Whether you're starting him at first or third, Sandoval has provided "must-start" support in 2009. If someone in your league is using Sandoval as a back-up or bench-warmer... feel confident in making a move for this young man... especially if you're in a deeper, keeper league.

Weekend Update: Ryan Doumit (Rotoworld.com Error)

2009-06-28T13:21:00.003-04:00

I logged on to Rotoworld this morning and found an update for Ryan Doumit, reading:

"Doumit has his whole rehab process laid out, including a July 5 return. "We are very pleased with his progress," GM Neal Huntington said last week. The catcher has been out since April 23."

Just to be clear, the source for this blurb (the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette) doesn't clearly say that Doumit is coming back to the big club on July 5th. The arctile states the following of Doumit's return:

"As catcher Ryan Doumit's rehabilitation schedule stands, he will report Tuesday to Pirate City for a minimum of four days of catching and designated hitting in Gulf Coast League games followed by additional at-bats in simulated games.

Doumit, after late-April wrist surgery, projects to head north July 5 for the rest of his assignment if everything works out well. Then, he would report to Class AAA Indianapolis or Class AA Altoona, both of whom play at home that day. The rest will depend upon his progress, "how he feels and how he does," Russell said. "Once we do send him down, we don't want him to have really a scheduled day off."

As far as I can tell, the Post-Gazette's sources indicate the Doumit will BEGIN a Triple-A or Double-A rehab assignment on July 5th. My best guess (as well as the best guess of many others writing about this today) is that Doumit is (as he always was) looking at an All-Star Break return.

Here's what some Pirates' bloggers are saying about the Doumit situation:

"Ryan Doumit will start his rehab assignment next week for the GCL Pirates. He will alternate between C and DH. The plan is then to send him to Altoona or Indianapolis On July 5th, since the Baby Bucs have an off day. Manager John Russell says, 'Once we do send him down, we don't want him to have really a scheduled day off'" (Northside Notch Blog).

"Ryan Doumit will start his rehab on Tuesday, and is shooting for a return just before the All-Star Break, but will probably be back right after the break" (BuccoFans.com).

And here's a DL-based blog talking about Doumit's looong recovery:

"RYAN DOUMIT is set to go on a rehab assignment this week and has a tentative return date of July 5. This would put him just past the original 10-week recovery period for his broken right Scaphoid (wrist) bone. The fact that he is even able to return this soon is pretty impressive, as Scaphoid fractures tend to be one of most hit-or-miss fractures as far as good healing is concerned. The surgeon who performed the procedure to stabilize the fracture must have done an exceptional job stabilizing it. Those of you who held onto this catcher who can rake will be rewarded handsomely. He was dropped in many leagues, so take a quick look to see if he’s out there - he is easily a top-ten catcher" (Disabled List Informer).

Thanks to all the above bloggers/sites for clarifying this issue. Rotoworld's vague report will probably result in a large quantity of teams grabbing Doumit sooner than necessary. I'm not for useless moves at such a pivotal point in the season, so please take note of the several caveats revolving around Ryan Doumit.

Nick Blackburn Update: Still Good

2009-06-24T23:27:00.004-04:00

Brief post time:

I was able to watch his game against the Brewers and noticed something: his good starts are effortless. He didn't strike out a ton of batters (two). In fact, he was underwhelming in the strikeout department. But his fantasy owners shouldn't be expecting that at this point. Blackburn and Twins' manager Ron Gardenhire have said repeatedly that this is a classic "pitch to contact" starter.

Looking to my last Blackburn post (Nick Blackburn is Actually Good) there may be an interesting trend starting up:

First, Blackburn pitched his second consecutive complete game. Yes, it was in loss. But Blackburn has pitched a combined 25 innings in his last three starts. For every fantasy "expert" who claims this guy should be dealt really needs to check themselves. Listening to the Twins' announce team tonight, every member stated not only that Blackburn's record hasn't truly reflected how good he is... but he's pitched BETTER than staff "ace" Kevin Slowey.

Second, Blackburn's defense let him down BIG TIME tonight. Joe Mauer's off-target throw into left field (over Joe Crede's head) cost the Twins and Blackburn the win tonight. I know, I know... I praised the Twins defense in my last post... but I think that's more the reason to buy into Blackburn. This isn't something that will happen often.

Lastly, if there's an owner in your league that's looking to deal Blackburn right now, you should consider making an offer. I'm not saying this is a top-of-the-order stud, but he's an awesome, awesome 4th or 5th starter in any league... especially when he's facing a two-start week (LIKE NEXT WEEK!!!).

Enough of me proving myself correct for now... just a weekly "Nick Blackburn Rocking" update.

Carlos Quentin: Major League Disappointment (Continues...)

2009-06-19T00:24:00.004-04:00

Here's the latest from last year's MVP candidate via The Sports Xchange:

"We're aware that if a relapse happens where the tendon ruptures even more, well, that's major," Quentin said. "That's something that's going to take longer, maybe even the rest of the season. So we're thinking that if that tendon goes, that's a two- to four-month recovery. Where we're at in the baseball season, two-to-four really doesn't work out as far as being able to play again this season. That's more of the concern right now."

Wow. Personally, I am a horribly disappointed Carlos Quentin owner in a 12-team keeper league. When I saw this news, my initial impulse was to throw something... hard. Or, better yet, punch something... hard. That impulse, however, reminded me of last season... when Carlos Quentin broke his hand in frustration...

The combination of two thoughts (the first being how much I hate Carlos Quentin and the second being my concern for my own hand) prevented me from taking any physical action. The above is the latest in an on-going injury plagued career for such a promising young major leaguer, in Carlos Quentin.

Nearly two years ago, when I skimmed the pages of the 2008 Baseball Prospectus, I almost immediately stumbled upon the name "Carlos Quentin." Why? Well, he played for the D-Backs at the time and BP is displayed in alphabetical order. In Quentin's bio, the guys and gals at BP noted that he had a world of talent, but was too injury prone. The projected meager stats, and Carlos Quentin made them look silly....

...or did he?

If anything, 2009 has shown what an aberration 2008's MVP campaign was for Carlos Quentin. Furthermore, it displayed how scarily accurate Baseball Prospectus can be.

So... fellow Carlos Quentin owners, what's our next step. Well, for anyone who's late to get on the bandwagon, Quentin is almost "drop-able." Yes. It pains me to say so, but if you're in a single-season (non-keeper) league, Quentin's foot ailments and news of *almost* shutting it down puts him in the red-zone. Here's who we all should be looking at as potential replacements:

Cody Ross: In most leagues, this guy's available. He started off like a bat out of hell but really, really, REALLY cooled off for most of April and the early parts of May. Over the last 5 weeks, however, Ross has averaged nearly 26 points/week in points based leagues. Not to mention his OPS of nearly .900 during his last 15 games. While other studs like Hanley Ramirez take over the spotlight in Miami, look for a hard-nosed break-out player in Ross to help ease the loss of someone as spectacular as Carlos Quentin.

Juan Rivera: I remember young Juan fumbling around the Yankees' outfield in the early part of the new millennium. While his average and arm left something to be desired, he still had that little "Ricky Ledee" in him that all Yankee fans wanted to grasp on to as a token of their championship years. Well... Ricky Ledee's probably warming someone's bench right now (maybe in the independent leagues? It's not important enough to look up, to be blunt) and Juan Rivera is doing his best impersonation of Bernie Williams (yes, THAT Yankee favorite of the Dynasty years). Over his last 15 games, Rivera's OPS is in vintage Big Papi territory at nearly 1.000. And he's averaging around 23 points/week over his last five weeks. Kudos to ESPN's Matthew Berry for having such a man crush on this guy that he stuck out in my mind. Rivera's dominance probably will not last... but it doesn't mean you can't ride him into the ground, Dusty Baker-style!

Nolan Reimold: Yes, one of the many man-crushes of my blog, Reimold has done nothing but impress since his call to the bigs. The Greenville, PA product has averaged 20/week in points based leagues--with the potential to do a bit more. It's hard to put all your faith in a rookie, but Reimold's OPS of .951 over his last 15 games is enough to warrant consideration in most leagues. Hold him as a 3rd - 4th OF for your team. This guy has the make up of a 2nd half sleeper and may be worth it on your team's turn-around run.

Week 11 Update: Nick Blackburn is Actually "Good"

2009-06-18T17:37:00.006-04:00

I was reading an article at Sportsfrog.com a little while ago... it demanded that I trade Nick Blackburn. Bronto, the author, suggests:

"Blackburn has benefited from a better-than average BABIP, which stood at .278 before today’s game compared to last season’s .308 BABIP. And he’s walking more hitters too. After walking just 39 last year, Blackburn has walked 25 people this season after walking just 39 in 2008."

Yes, this is all 100% accurate. However, with this all know, do we think anyone would be willing to deal anything for Blackburn and if so, what? Personally, I don't think you're going to pull the wool over anyone's eyes if you're in a competitive league. Blackburn is what he is: a nice option in mixed-leagues and a really, really good option in AL-Only leagues.

...and though everything Bronto said was accurate, I'm not ready to sell on Blackburn yet. I look at his GB-rate and think there may be something more here. The Twins have historically preached speed and defense to their position players. This is blatantly obvious in the fact that the Twins lead baseball with only 24 Errors allows all year! It's mind-boggling, but it's true. With that all said, why not take a chance on a kid who's decreasing his HR/FB rate and pitching to a better-than-50% GB rate?

My point is that Blackburn's BABIP is so low because his GB Rate is so steady and his HR/FB is severely decreased from what it was last year. As Brian Pietrzak suggests in his "Inside Nick Blackburn's last five starts," Blackburn's reputation is a bit misleading:

"Blackburn has garnered a reputation as a "fly-ball pitcher," especially from Twins' announcers Bert Blyleven and Dick Bremer. However, Blackburn's ground ball to fly ball ratio is 1.21 through his first 13 starts of 2009. As a contrast, Carlos Silva was often considered by many, including Blyleven and Bremer, to be a "sinkerball pitcher" who induced many ground balls. In his final season as a Twin in 2007, Silva had a ground ball to fly ball ratio of 1.41."

In the end, it comes down to whether or not YOU like Blackburn. You can find all the stats in the world to support either side as Bronto and Pietrzak deliver above. For me, I say stick with him. Let him ride your bench next week and throw him in for two-starts in Week 13. Unless the Twins trade their top-flight defenders, I'd expect more of the same.

Weekend Update: Ryan Doumit, Scott Kazmir, Cubs' Bats

2009-06-14T13:45:00.004-04:00

For those of us who've been waiting to vulture Ryan Doumit from the waiver-wire... you may want to wait a little longer. A few minutes ago, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette gave an update on Doumit's rehab:

"He's been cleared to resume baseball activities, which means throwing and swinging a bat. Yesterday was the first time he threw soft toss from 45 feet and also took some dry swings. He did it again this morning. 'It's a progression and I'm going to ease into it,' Doumit said, who's beginning a two-week throwing/batting program. 'I'll do that for a couple of weeks and we'll see where it goes from there.'"

Essentially, he's still a while away from coming back. Throwing from 45 feet is typically the first of three legs a catcher has to run through to prove his health... not even including working your swing back into... swing. That all said, Doumit's return shouldn't be for at least another 3 weeks. The good news is that you'll start getting more regular updates about his condition and training now that he's starting a regular program.

The St. Petersburg Times also provided a brief update on Rays' starter, Scott Kazmir, who told reporters he would be starting up a rehab campaign this coming week:

"[Joe] Maddon confirmed LHP Scott Kazmir will start for Class-A Charlotte Wednesday."

Short and to-the-point. Nothing that I could find about Kazmir's shoulder or side-sessions, but I'm sure most of that will be available after his first go-round on Wednesday afternoon. Check back at the above link for more on Wednesday night or Thursday morning (as usual, I'm sure Rotoworld or MLB Trade Rumors will also have something on this).

Finally, the Chicago Tribune reports the Chicago Cubs fired team hitting coach, Gerald Perry. Normally, this is a purely cosmetic move, but Perry coached one of the most feared offenses in baseball not even two-years ago. So, needless to say, he'll resurface somewhere within the next season or two. Jim Hendry on the firing:

"Von [Joshua] has had a lot of success with our guys on the way up. We're really, really struggling offensively for reasons way beyond Aramis (Ramirez) being gone. Every day we have guys in the lineup who have played in the All-Star game. For whatever reason, they're just not performing anywhere close to the level they've performed through their careers."

That last part is huge. Owners of Alfonso Soriano, Derrick Lee, and Milton Bradley may start to see some signs of life soon. Though, Soriano has been struggling, now might be the time to try and make a trade for the perennial fantasy superstar. He and the rest of the Cubbies' bats have the potential for a huge second half.

Nick Swisher: 2009's Carlos Quentin?

2009-04-15T15:32:00.008-04:00

Well... not quite Carlos Quentin (Swisher will not hit 40 bombs this year), but in Fantasy terms, Nick Swisher's initial value (nothing) and long-term value (high-end #2 outfielder) match-up well to Quentin's 2008 Fantasy Baseball Odyssey.

What makes Swish so valuable this early in the season was the severe lack of respectable first basemen in last month's draft. His dual eligibility (1B and OF) makes him particularly attractive in leagues that have little to no room on a team's bench.

All prep aside, let's take a look at what makes Swisher's 2009 "Quentin Worthy:"

Above, we see Nick Swisher's major league numbers. It's hard to believe, but this guys only been in the Majors for just over 4 years. Looking over his career, Swisher obviously had his "career-year" in his sophomore 2006, when he almost slugged at a .500 clip. Since then, his SLG% has fallen dramatically, resulting in last year's .410 result with the Chicago White Sox.

Now, we all know Swisher's bread-and-butter is his on-base percentage... but even that was down in 2008, which begs the question: "What the hell happened in '08?"

Well, to start, Swisher's BABIP fell over 50 points last year, pointing to shitty luck as an immediate culprit in his horrendous 2008. As Yahoo! Sports' Matt Buser notes in a February 2007 article, "One of the most interesting things about [BABIP] is that it's widely acknowledged that luck plays a part in each player's BABIP. For hitters, there are three things that play a large part: skill, speed, and luck."

Furthermore, Buser's ambiguous notion that "skill" plays a role in BABIP eliminates any subsequent discussion about Swisher's apparent skill, so I'm not going to even go there. But it doesn't take a brain surgeon to realize that Nick Swisher is a slow guy. Again, assuming Swisher has "decent" skill, we have a 1-1 split coming down to luck as the deciding factor.

So me... Swisher was just "unlucky" in 2008. Much like Quentin's 2007, Swisher was viewed as a 4th outfielder and a back-up first baseman on a team that already featured two (Jim Thome and Paul Konerko). Essentially, Nick Swisher had nowhere to play.

His fate seemed similar with his new team, the New York Yankees, as the team vowed to use Brett Gardner in CF rather than the defensively inept Swisher. This made Swish the number one back-up for Johnny Damon in left, Xavier Nady in right, and Mark Teixeira at first.

That is... until about 2 hours ago when news broke that Xavier Nady will likely miss the remainder of 2009 with a torn elbow ligament.

Now it's Swisher's turn to prove that he's worthy of a full-season of at-bats. Let's not forget... it was Carlos Quentin's white-hot start that placed Nick Swisher in a "back-up" role as a member of the White Sox. Now, in a ironic twist, Swisher finds himself in a similar position.

During the off-season, I compiled an average "projected points" list using Bill James' Handbook, Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster, MARCEL, ZiPS, and ESPN. This conglomerate projects Nick Swisher's 488.9 points to outscore fellow outfielders Shane Victorino (484), Vernon Wells (475), Jayson Werth (451) and Rick Ankiel (453). He also places above first basemen Paul Konerko (471), Connor Jackson (481), and Carlos Guillen (451).

To say the least, Swisher is a must-add bat right now... ESPECIALLY batting in the middle of the Yankees' potent line-up. Feel free to confidently add him to your starting line-up for the next scoring period.

Shin-Soo Choo: 2009's Rick Ankiel?

2009-01-29T10:03:00.006-05:00

Okay, wipe the coffee you just spit out off your monitor...

If you're asking yourself who's Shin-Soo Choo, then you're in dire-straights before the season even begins. Choo, a former starting pitcher in the Seattle Mariner's farm system, converted to outfielder after a copious amount of arm problems in the minors and has thrived since his trade to Cleveland.

What I found most interesting about Choo's extended call-up in 2008 (361 plate-appearances), was the fact that his OPS (.924) topped Hanley Ramirez, Chase Utley, Carlos Lee, and Josh Hamilton, just to name a few. Does this mean Choo's going to top these guys? No! Of course that's not the case, but 2008 may be an indicator that a breakout is on the horizon for Choo in 2009.

Looking back to 2007, there was another converted-outfielder who put up a high-OPS (.863)in limited plate-appearances. His name: Rick Ankiel. In 2008, Ankiel continued more-of-the-same in his PA's with a .843 OPS. Ankiel, like Choo, played in a hitter's park and eventually found himself in the middle of the line-up with Albert Pujols somewhere nearby.

Taking a look at Choo's projected points/plate-appearance (formula offered here), he's expected to do much better than some "names" who will be drafted before him:

Bill James: .842 pts/pa

CBS Sports: .841 pts/pa

MARCEL: .875 pts/pa

For Bill James, Choo should be expected to outperform the likes of Jermaine Dye (.83), Andre Ethier (.82), Nick Swisher (.81), Hideki Matsui (.80), Vernon Wells (.80), and Johnny Damon (80) in a points-based fantasy baseball league. Now, I like the comparables here, BUT the oddball in this equation has to be Andre Ethier. Like Choo, he's a younger (27) and in everyone's favorite "breakout" age. Due to the fact that Ethier is guaranteed much more playing time, I would elevate him a bit out of the group of mediocrity where Bill James places him.

Moving on to CBS Sports, Choo's fantasy output (.841) is similar to those of Alex Rios (.841) and Torii Hunter (.841), two guys who will be drafted light-years before anyone even considers giving Choo the time of day.

MARCEL provides the most favorable points/plate-appearance projection for Choo (.87); placing him in the top-20 OVERALL. That's right. Choo denied Chase Utley a finish in the Top-20 (Utley was 21... not bad).

Of all the players Choo weighs in above, one thing is for certain: your outfield CAN be built late. In a draft where you're more concerned with position eligibility, be sure to have post it with "Shin-Soo Choo" written on it somewhere in your notes. He has the potential to hit 20-25 home runs for Cleveland in 2009 while maintaining a ~.300 BA.

That all said, don't rely on him as a guaranteed 3rd outfielder in your league. Draft him as a high-end 4th and watch what happens. I'm not saying he's going to be the next Carlos Quentin, but you could definitely do a lot worse than having the 2009 version of Rick Ankiel at your disposal.

(Side-note: If you believe in the "Age-27" Breakout Theory... then Choo's also turning 27 this season. Enjoy.)

Fantasy Baseball Prep: Castigated Outfielders

2009-01-21T12:13:00.005-05:00

Now that the Bill James-enhanced Fantasy Baseball Prep Chapter has finally come to a close, I've been shifting through CBS Sports and Marcel projections over the past few days to really key in on the "popular" choices for breakout players and potential slumping players for the 2009 season.

While I continue working through this, however, I wanted to write a bit about someone who's name I've seen brought up quite a bit on the message boards and who I didn't really mentioned in my outfield prep post. Again, it's worth mentioning that an "average" outfielder has a Fantasy Points / Plate Appearance of 0.81 pts/pa.

The Nationals' Elijah Dukes had a problem getting opportunities in 2008. This has to do with a number of issues: first, he has a horrible attitude (best example came against the Mets at mid-season when he felt Mike Pelfrey was throwing at him...), second, he has a problem with consistency, and third, he has enough off-field issues to last multiple seasons.

So why the hype? Why are owners, in the cold of January, hyping someone who may not even be a regular for the Nationals in 2009?

Bill James: 0.89 pts/pa

CBS Sports: 0.83 pts/pa

Marcel: 0.82 pts/pa

I guess that about sums it up...

While Dukes isn't head-and-shoulders above average, he has shown the potential to be if given the at-bats. Two years ago, while working for WFUV as a Yankees' beat reporter, I bumped into Dukes, then a member of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Now, I've seen some big baseball players, but Dukes is one of the biggest guys on the field. If talent were determined by the shier size of a player, Dukes would be among the tops in the game. However, for some reason, he's yet to "put it all together" (you've heard this so many times before... but I truly believe it when it comes to a guy with, seemingly, all the tools, like Dukes).

So, who should you look to rank Dukes ahead of, if given the ABs?

Marcel projects Dukes' .82 pts/pa ahead of Hunter Pence (.81), Eric Byrnes (.80), Mike Cameron (.79), and Shane Victorino (.79) -- most of whom will be drafted in points leagues (especially if strikeouts are of a minimal penalty).

For CBS Sports, Dukes barely edges Vernon Wells (.82), while also placing ahead of Jacoby Ellsbury (.81), Johnny Damon (.81), and Hunter Pence (again).

Bill James provides the most liberal, abstruse projections with Dukes' .89 pts/pa topping those of Bobby Abreu (.88), Nate McLouth (.87), Curtis Granderson (.86), Magglio Ordonez (.85), and Pat Burrell (.84), just to name a few (of the guys who will DEFINITELY be drafted before Dukes).

When all is said and done, the most you can do (at this point, anyway) is wait and see what happens in Spring Training for the Nats. As of now, they're rolling into the season with Lastings Milledge, Wily Mo Pena, Josh Willingham, Austin Kearns, and Dukes... while also being rumored to have interest in free agent Adam Dunn and the Yankees' Xavier Nady. Now, I was never adroit to numbers games, but I don't think you're going to have very much sucess fitting upwards of 7 major leaguers in 3 outfield spots.

To conclude, there's a bit too many pieces to this puzzle to derail my circumspect approach to a player like Dukes. I know a lot of fantasy participants out there love him, and it's not hard to see why... but until Adam Dunn signs with another team, the Yankees trade Nady to the Mariners/Pirates, Josh Willingham converts back to catcher, and Wily Mo Pena retires... I'm going to remain an innocent bystander even with the risk of being burned by Elijah Dukes.

Fantasy Baseball Prep: Outfield

2009-01-16T12:38:00.008-05:00

Far and away, the outfield portion of this series is the most mind-boggling. Each day, before sitting down to write my latest post, I take a look at the spread sheet to see what names pop out at me as "strange." Not "strange" in the fact that it's unfathomable that a players be ranked so highly, but "strange" that I didn't think of this without the guidance of stats and numbers.

Today, however, "strange" refers to the former.

For this reason, I'm going to analyze this position the same way I did for catcher, first base, second base, third base, and shortstop before pointing out a few outliers that found their way(s) "in."

Starting with our first statistical category, points-per-opportunity (see introductory chapter for a rundown of statistics and formulas), Ryan Braun (2.92 pts/opp.) reigns supreme. In fact, Braun tops every statistical category I've created for the purposes of this blog series. It's safe to say that Bill James has crowned Braun as the "cream of the crop" in 2009.

Behind Braun, filling out the top-three, are Alfonso Soriano (2.77) and Marcus Thames (2.76). I can't say I'm too surprised with the top-three. Soriano rakes when healthy... but that's been a bit of a problem for him recently (many Cubs' fans know about his "hopping" problem in the outfield). Thames, on the other hand, is projected to hit only 22 more singles than home runs in limited at-bats. He's not quite up to the rate of a Glennallen Hill, but he's probably the closest the Majors have to offer.

The bottom three of the 120 ranked outfielders for this research produce two familiar names: Brian Giles (1.99) and Ichiro (2.05). These two players are the typical examples of fantasy bats you'd expect to find at the bottom of a pts/opp. category. One is an aging "power" bat (yeah, remember way back when?) and the other's a singles-hitting-base-stealer. Don't be too concerned about Ichiro being ranked this low. Remember that most of his opportunity is made by stealing bases and scoring runs, two things that are risky and that he has very little control over.

The median for this category is our favorite fluctuating fellow: Aubrey Huff (2.39 pts/opp.). Huff was a "surprise" to most fantasy owners last year as he put up his typical "Devil Ray" numbers from almost 3-years ago. Bill James projects similar numbers for 2009: 23 HRs, 80 RBI, 70 R, and a .280 BA.

Notable "below-average" sluggers identified are Delmon Young (2.32), Nick Swisher (2.31), and Josh Willingham (2.31). Of these three, I think it's important to note that this may be Delmon Young's last chance to live up to the "next Ken Griffey Jr." billing we were all promised back in 2005-06. I know that I can't be the only one who was fed up with hearing about him and Lastings "the next Willie Mays" Milledge (2.43).

When thinking of Willie... the LAST word that comes to mind is "average," which is what Milledge (.81) represents when moving to our next category, points-per-plate-appearance.

[I hope you all enjoyed the above sentence. In the biz, that's what we call a beautiful transition. I'm gonna just read it one more time before moving on...]

The top-five of our OPS translator deliver four familiar names and one not-so-familiar name. The four players whom you've undoubtedly heard about before are Ryan Braun (1.05 pts/pa), Matt Holiday (.96), Josh Hamilton (.95), Carlos Beltran (.949), and Manny Ramirez (.94).

Our out-of-nowhere member of the top-five is the EXTREMELY streaky Nelson Cruz (.967), who, along with Chris Davis, carried the Texas Rangers down the stretch of the 2008 MLB season. Cruz is an interesting option in fantasy leagues this year. Like fellow Quadruple-A member, Dallas McPherson, Cruz has been touted as too good for Triple-A... but not disciplined/good enough for the Majors.

However, Rangers' mangaer Ron Washington said that Nelson Cruz would bat clean-up for the Rangers if they added no offense in the off-season. The Rangers' added nothing offensively so far this season, so (barring a random signing of Manny Ramirez or something) one would expect Washington to make good on his commitment. Cruz, 28, is in the prime of his offensive career and will be batting consistently behind Josh Hamilton in 2009.

That's too much to ignore.

Combine this with Bill James' projected 28 home runs, 84 RBI, and 18 stolen bases and you have the foundation for what may FINALLY qualify as Cruz's "break-out" season. That all said, please don't go ahead and draft this guy as your #1 outfielder. You'll be laughed at. Seriously, laughed at. I would rank him as a low-two, high-three... but please be sure to draft a serviceable back-up for protection if he struggles throughout April and May.

However, if Cruz does for your fantasy team what he did for mine during the fantasy play-offs last year, you'll be more than pleased you took the risk on this potential late-bloomer.

Fantasy Baseball Prep: Shortstop

2009-01-14T23:31:00.007-05:00

Shortstop is an interesting position this year. Last year was the first time that I could ever remember three shortstops being hands-down 1st round picks, including the A-Rod, Derek Jeter, and Nomar Garciaparra days of yesteryear. The three aforementioned shortstops, Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and Jimmy Rollins are still projected as early picks, but Jimmy Rollins’ “welcome back to Earth” 2008 has knocked him out of the 1st and, probably, second rounds of most fantasy drafts.

Before taking off, remember to take a look at my introductory post for a chart of the breakdown of points in this league. From there you can find links to my previous 2009 looks at catcher, first base, second base, and third base.

Taking a look at our points-per-opportunity statistic as an indicator of Fantasy Baseball Slugging-Percentage, we find our “average” shortstop to be Rafael Furcal (2.21 pts/opp.). Though in 2008, Furcal started off like a man possessed, a back injury (originally diagnosed as a trip to the 15-day DL) cost him a majority of his season. I’m not surprised to see Furcal sitting in this spot when looking at his declining home run and stolen base totals. Combine that with his injury history and new, unmotivating, fat contract and I’m ready to put Raffy on my “Buyer Beware” list in 2009.

Flanking Furcal as “average” slugging shortstops are Troy Tulowitzki (2.26) and Bobby Crosby (2.17). Tulowitzki is an interesting case for a couple reasons. Last year, as we all know, Tulo’s quad and lacerations forced him out for a majority of the first half of the season. He was hyped to be the next 25 HR shortstop and delivered nothing but mediocrity when he DID play. However, let’s look beyond the sour taste Tulo left in our mouths in 2008 and look back to much happier times in 2007. Anyone who selected the Rockies then-rookie in the later rounds of the draft noticed the youngster’s rather slow start. After the All-Star break, however, something changed in Tulo, as he played more like a cagey vet than a bumbling rookie.

Fast-forward to 2008, and we saw the same approach from Tulowitzki, a slow start once he received regular playing time. I’m not going to go ahead and crown this guy the next Eric Chavez, but I think he’s slow start may be more to blame for his less-than-desirable numbers once he became healthy in 2008.

Now, enough about Tulo and Slugging-%, let’s move on to points-per-plate-appearance, where Maicer Izturis’ .73 pts/pa marks the middle-ground. This is awesome for fantasy owners for a few reasons: (1) this is an indication of the large number of “above-average” shortstops in 2009, (2) shortstop is a position you can sit on, and (3) the difference between the highest pts/pa (Hanley Ramirez’s .98) and the average can be easily made up with another position (say, drafting a more productive OF over a SS early in the draft, thereby ignoring the position scarcity approach).

Topping our list are the Big-Three (or big two-and-a-half) of Hanley Ramirez (.98), Jose Reyes (.90), and Jimmy Rollins (.85), but there’s a name placing in the Top-5 that sticks out like a sore thumb… and no it’s not Troy Tulowitzki (.80).

Though I didn’t mention it before, the Angels’ Brandon Wood is as close as one can get to putting Richie Sexson circa 2003 at shortstop. He’s big, strong, and strikes out a ton. He topped the list of shortstops in the pts/opp. category and places 4th on the pts/pa statistic.

So what does this all mean?

It means that Wood, despite his lack of playing time, could be a deep sleeper for 2009. The Angels have a few players blocking the way for Wood with Chone Figgins, Maicer Izturis, and Erick Aybar. Last year, the injury bug took a severe bite out of the left-side of the Halo’s infield and forced the call-up of players like Brandon Wood.

Bill James doesn’t project anything astronomical (23 HRs, 26 doubles, 10 SBs), but he does project these numbers in about 200 fewer at-bats than a guy like JJ Hardy, who offers a similar output.

Now, I’m not saying to definitely draft a guy like Brandon Wood… but I am giving you an early warning: pay close attention to the Angels’ third base and shortstop situations going into spring training. Remember, this is a team that lost out on Mark Teixeira during the off-season… they’re going to need to do something to replace that offensive output. I have a feeling that, in this instance, “something” is going to be giving players like Brandon Wood and Mike Napoli a lot more ABs than they’re typically accustomed to.

Fantasy Baseball Prep: Third Base

2009-01-12T10:10:00.005-05:00

When looking over the field of third basemen in 2009 you have a large number of (close-to) sure things masking a, perhaps, even larger group of sleepers and deep-sleepers. For anyone just joining in, feel free to read over my introductory post for the scoring break-down in a generic points-based fantasy baseball league as well as the subsequent posts centering on catchers, first basemen, and second basemen.

Obviously, the third base position takes a hit with the loss of Ryan Braun, who played zero games at the hot corner in 2008, from the 2009 eligibility roster. However, with the loss of one player comes the advent of another, as Evan Longoria joins Alex Rodriguez, David Wright, and Aramis Ramirez as the "powerhouses" of the position. Aside from these four no-brainers, there are a smorgasbord of alternative options for teams looking to drafts batters for this power position later in their respective fantasy drafts.

Beginning with the points-per-opportunity (pts/opp.) slugging break-down, Chone Figgins (not surprisingly at 2.1 pts/opp.) and Twins probable third baseman, Brian Buscher (2.0) round out the bottom of the list with Texas' Chris Davis (2.9) taking the top-spot nearly a full-point higher.

Now, when I first crunched these numbers and saw the mashing potential of Chris Davis I got giddy, no lie. I couldn't believe that this virtual rookie was ranked ahead of guys like A-Rod, D. Wright, and notorious mashers like Troy Glaus. Combine the numbers with the Rangers' history of cultivating young, slugging position players (thanks in large part to Rudy Jaramillo) and I was sold that I found the sleeper of the year!

...that is... until I noticed everyone coming to the same conclusion.

So, there we have it. Chris Davis is 2009's Josh Hamilton, someone who could be a sleeper, but, due to a huge amount of hype, won't be come fantasy-draft season. If you remember back to last season, Hamilton was getting so much love from a variety of fantasy baseball sources that he was being insanely overvalued in drafts everywhere. Obviously, the fantasy talking-heads earned their paychecks with this prediction, as Hamilton was a first-half fantasy MVP.

Just below Davis' 2.9 pts/opp. are Alex Rodriguez and Mark Reynolds who tie for second 2.67 pts/opp. We all know A-Rod's deal, so it's silly to waste space talking about how great he is, so I want to shift my attention to Mark Reynolds.

Last year, Reynolds was about as all-or-nothing as someone not-named Jack Cust can get. He batted a horrific .239 for the year, all the while knocking in 97 RBI with 28 long-balls. The reason for this drastic difference was essentially strike-outs. If Reynolds can just down on blindly hacking at anything thrown in the direction of home plate he's be an awesome option for 2009. Bill James anticipates a .270 BA with a near-.350 OBP, which is a huge improvement from both categories in 2008. However, before I decide to endorse Mark Reynolds in 2009, let's shift our attention from pts/opp. to points-per-plate-appearance (pts./pa), which (as you all know) is an indication of OPS in points-based fantasy leagues.

We return to a bit of normalcy in this category with Alex Rodriguez topping the position once again with a ridiculous 1.03 pts/pa. However, our good friend, the unfortunately overhyped Chris Davis places second with a 1.02 pts/pa (also ridiculous). Our "average" player(s) in this position are Edwin Encarnacion (.83), Alex Gordon (.82), and Scott Rolen (.81). This should answer any break-out questions surrounding Encarnacion and Gordon. Unless you're satisfied with an "average" player in a "power position," I'd let another owner take a risk on one of these young players in 2009.

Interestingly, Garrett Atkins (.80) falls BELOW average in 2009. This might be a player to rank a bit lower on your draft list this season, especially with younger players like Davis (1.02), Reynolds (.93), and the Brewers' Mat Gamel (.85).

A few more notables who fell well below average in the points-per-plate appearance category were Joe Crede (.74), Mike Lowell (.76), Jorge Cantu (.77), Chone Figgins (.77), and Kevin Kouzmanof (.77).

It's important to remember not to overrate players based purely on name. So far, of all the positions I've analyzed, there's a huge risk of this at the third base position. Don't be the owner who's pointed and laughed at for thinking Mike Lowell deserves a spot on your roster... please.

Fantasy Baseball Prep: Second Base

2009-01-09T00:39:00.005-05:00

A new day, a new position. Let’s continue our trip around the diamond with a rather deep crop of second basemen. Again, just for clarification purposes, you can find the key for a generic points-based Fantasy Baseball league in the introductory post to this series.

If you missed out of my analysis of the players to key in on for both catchers and first basemen, you can follow the links provided or navigate the side bar.

All that said, let’s jump right into our Slugging% indicator (points-per-opportunity) and take a look at who may be stepping up as a masher in 2009. The range for this list starts with Aaron Miles (1.87) who just recently signed on with the Cubs as a starting second baseman (though I don’t think it will last, personally) and ends with Alexei Ramirez (2.60), who began his breakout year at the later part of the 2008 season with the Chicago White Sox. Though Ramirez will be Chicago’s starting Shortstop in 2009, he’ll maintain his second base eligibility from 2008… so be sure to take advantage of this on your draft boards.

For this statistic, 2.21 was the average for second basemen. Obviously the heavy hitters like Chase Utley (2.55), Ian Kinsler (2.53), and Dan Uggla (2.51) were all a good distance above the average. Why? Well, mainly because they’re making the most of their opportunities. Utley and Uggla both hit a ton of home runs (for second basemen, anyway) and Kinsler gives you a nice 25-25 option at a position that doesn’t offer that mixture all the time.

The average second baseman in this instance was Brian Roberts (2.21), exemplifying exactly what I was hinting with Kinsler. Roberts walks a good amount and hits a lot of singles. However, because he plays in a rather anemic Orioles line-up he doesn’t score a ton of runs. To make up for this, Roberts must steal a ton of bases to make the most of his opportunity. Dustin Pedroia (2.218) places right above Roberts. Pedroia, last season’s AL MVP, does have the benefit of hitting in a line-up that scores a ton of runs. However, Pedroia doesn’t walk, doesn’t steal; bases, and bats in a spot with minimal RBI opportunities. His singles, doubles, and run scoring potential all combine to provide your team with a serviceable, average slugging second baseman in points-based fantasy leagues.

When we make the shift from PTS/OPP. to PTS/PA (points-per-plate-appearance), we see a few familiar names topping the list with Utley (.93), Kinsler (.90), Ramirez (.85), and Dan Uggla (.849). At the bottom of this list, again, sits Aaron Miles, who’s probably not even drafting himself in his own fantasy league… so you should probably follow suit and do the same thing.

Our “average” group of players contains two annually overrated bats at this position and one generally underrated bate. Starting with the bad, Jeff Kent (.73) and Robinson Cano (.75) flank an underrated Kaz Matsui (.74). Again, as a veteran fantasy player, you know that Kent and Cano are going to go early. Whether it be the “consistency” of Kent of the “potential” of Cano, they’ll be over hyped going into 2009 Fantasy Baseball drafts. Kaz, on the other hand, will probably NOT be drafted in most leagues, despite the similar output you should expect from him.

While scanning this list, there’s a few things that jumped out at me. First is the Colorado second base situation. Last year, Jayson Nix sucked the morale and life out of the position with his “great defense” while fending off potential sleepers Ian Stewart and Jeff Baker. While Stewart has the greatest potential of the three, Bill James provides both he and Baker with identical pts/pa outputs at .817.

In the grand scheme of things, Baker and Stewart are both ranked ahead of annual fantasy starters (not to be confused with “fantasy stars”) Brian Roberts (.80), Brandon Phillips (.78), Howie Kendrick (.80), and Kelly Johnson (.81). Now, I’ve never been a huge fan of Kelly Johnson and Howie Kendrick’s injury-problems have broken my heart one-too-many times. But I am a big fan of both Brian Roberts and Brandon Phillips and was surprised to see the tandem of Stewart and Baker ranked ahead of them for 2009.

All this said, second base seems like a great position to sit on in 2009. Let your competition make uo your mind for you. If you’re forced into taking a risk on a Jeff Kent or Cano while filling out the rest of your roster with better players, make sure to grab Stewart, Baker, or both while the Rockies (hopefully) come to their senses and goes with one of these offensive threats as a regular in 2009.

Fantasy Baseball Prep: First Base

2009-01-08T00:01:00.005-05:00

Part Two of this multi-part mini-series brings us to First Base. Again, for an introduction to this series, feel free to click here for a break down of the point system.

Also, if you missed out on the rather telling "Fantasy Baseball Prep: Catchers" post from yesterday evening, feel free to either scroll down or follow the above link to the post's location.

To begin, I want to rehash the two statistical formulas that I am incorporating into my research this year: points-per-opportunity (pts/opp) and points-per-plate-appearance (pts/pa). Essentially the two categories boil down like this, pts/opp is the Slugging% for points-based fantasy baseball leagues and pts/pa represents the OPS for points-based fantasy leagues.

With that said, let's start with the slugging and make our way to the OPS. The range of pts/opp. was pretty vast. The low (1.54 pts/opp) was Daric Barton, who coincidently may have lost his job today with the A's signing of Jason Giambi to a 1-year contract. The high (2.68) went to, you guessed it, Ryan Howard. The average for first basemen was 2.31 points/opp.

That places a few familiar a a few unfamiliar names at the average point position in this slugging category. The first, a maybe-surprising / maybe-not, player is Derrek Lee (2.26), who's seen his overall production decline dramatically over the past two seasons. Below Lee is Kevin Youkilis (2.25), who had a break-out season in 2008, and Ryan Garko (2.24), the Indians' over-hyped first baseman.

While Garko is where I would expect him to be, some may be surprised by the presence of Youkilis among the "below-average" points/oppertunity crowd. To that I say, take a look at the numbers. 2.25 pts/opp. is not a bad total at all for someone... especially someone dubbed the "Greek God of Walks." Think about it. That means that for every walk Youkilis takes in 2009, he should be expect to (a) score a run, or (b) steal a base... then get caught stealing. Obviously, option-A is a bit more likely to occur in a line-up as potent as that of the Red Sox.

Above Derrek Lee (our Mason-Dixon line for the purposes of this post) are two virtual unknowns: Kendry Morales (2.28) and John Bowker (2.34).

The aforementioned Bowker may be a bit of a long shot. Especially if the Giants sign Joe Crede and shift Pablo Sandoval from 3B to 1B in 2009. Though Bowker is obviously capable of putting up respecitble points with the increase of opportunity, the Giants may opt for a discounted rate on Crede and give the 25 year-old more time in the minors.

Kendry Morales, on the other hand, is in line to be the Angels' starting first baseman in 2009. When the Halo's traded Casey Kotchman for a virtual rent-a-player in Mark Teixeira, you had to think that L.A. had some-sort of "ace" up their sleeve. In this case, the ace was Kendry Morales. Now, don't get me wrong... the Angels would've loved to bring Teixeira back to to L.A., but Morales may provide a considerable more pop from the 3-spot than Casey Kotchman EVER did during his time with the Halo's.

Moving on from our first base mashers, let's take a look at a few OPS superstars for points-based fantasy baseball leagues. The top-dog in the yard is everyone's favorite Cardinal, Albert Pujols (1.06). I'm sorry. But if you have a player who's averaging a point per plate appearance... you should thank your lucky stars on a night basis. Pujols and Ryan Howard (1.00) are the only first basemen who top the 1-point threshold... which is absurd. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to tell you that if you can get your hands on one of these fantasy-monsters... pull the trigger and get in while the getting's good.

The average players in this category surround Adrian Gonzalez (.83). Below Gonzalez are seriously, a bunch of fantasy scrubs. The first two are Paul Konerko (.82) and Adam LaRoche (.81), both of whom, as everyone who's owned them know, are hugely overrated at this point in their careers.

To me, the best value in the Top-12 in the pts/pa category is Joey Votto (.91), who places above perennial All-Stars Justin Morneau (.86), Kevin Youkilis (.85), and Carlos Pena (.87). Also, a bit above Votto is everyone's favorite vegan, Prince Fielder (.91) and new hundred-million-dollar-man, Mark Teixeira (.95).

To say the least, you could probably draft Votto 5 rounds (if not more) behind the majority of these first basemen. If you're a Bill James supporter, look for Joey V. to bust it out in '09, and be a regular contributer for both the Reds and your fantasy baseball team.

Fantasy Baseball Prep: Catchers

2009-01-06T21:46:00.004-05:00

Using The Bill James Handbook as my primary resource, I calculated the point totals for each player in the Catcher position based on the table I posted earlier.

In 2009, I feel like there's going to be a number of new catchers entering the forefront. For the most part, these players are those who were once in a platoon or are rookies/second-year players who finally reached the bigs. In order to gauge what their "point-potential" may be for 2009, I created two new categories: "points per opportunity" and "points per plate appearance."

Essentially, points per opportunity (pts/opp.) is the number of points each player makes when doing something ASIDE from making an out. This statistic divides the total number of points by the hits and walks of a given player. For me, this statistic is the SLG% of a points-based fantasy league. You're able to see who does the most when they connect. The average PTS/OPP. in this instance was 2.22.

Benjie Molina (2.22), Kenji Johjima (2.23), Ramon Hernandez (2.23), and A.J. Pierzynski (2.21) are all examples of an average player using this statistic.

While Johjima wasn't a starting catcher in my fantasy league last year, I'm surprised to see players who were (Molina, Hernandez, and Pierzynski) lumped in the same group. What does this tell us? Not that Johjima is going to bounce back... rather, that 2009 may represent a changing of the guard at catcher.

This isn't totally surprising to me. The average age of starters at the catcher position has increased every year (I know, that sounds logical and stupid), rather than staying the same. The reason that I suggest that it's not as "stupid" as it seems is due to the fact that older catchers should be breaking down and younger catchers should be taking their spots. A couple things prevent this from happening. First, there are longer contracts being signed by catchers. In the list above, Johjima, Hernandez, and Molina are all examples of this. Let's also not forget players like Jorge Posada, who signed a lucrative deal last off-season, and Jason Varitek, who's about to do the same. Second, catchers are losing their offensive ability before their defense ability. Exemplifying this are Pudge Rodriguez, the aforementioned Benjie Molina, and Jason Kendell.

Moving to our second and, in my opinion, more-telling statistic, points-per-plate-appearance (PTS/PA) we take a look at the OPS of points-based leagues. This statistic shows us the number of points each player should accrue each time they step to the plate. To find this number, I divided the points total of each player by their at-bats (AB) and walks (BB).

The average, in this case, was .74 PTS/PA. Jeff Clement, Chris Snyder, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia were the three players who represented the "average" in this category. Personally, I'm so happy about one of the names that this formula spit out. If you're like me, you've considered Jarrod Saltalamacchia nothing but a long name and nothing else. Year-after-year I see this guy drafted before the Ryan Doumit's and Chris Iannetta's of the league and can't help but scratch my head... This statistic has justified what I've thought all along, "Salty's" nothing but an average player at this point in his career.

Toping this list is, not-surprisingly, Mike Napoli, who should get regular AB's for the Angels in 2009. The problem with Napoli has never been his consistency at the plate... in fact, he's mashed whenever he's been healthy-enough to do so. Bill James' projection reveals a .93 PTS/PA for Napoli. To put that in perspective, the other players with a .93 PTS/PA are Manny Ramirez, Evan Longoria, and Chase Utley. Household name much?

Of the top-tier of catchers, Brian McCann (.87) is the only player listed in the Top-5 (Russell Martin is #7, Victor Martinez is #14, and Jorge Posada is #13). With this known, I would wait until Russell Martin is drafted to pick up McCann. I say this because, I feel that people are beginning to sour on the injury issues surrounding Victor Martinez and Jorge Posada. While both players bat in high-powered line-ups, I think their age and injury problems are enough to turn off a healthy portion of "informed" fantasy owners.

Fantasy Baseball Prep: Bill James Handbook

2009-01-06T17:34:00.007-05:00

For Christmas this year, I made three requests:

(1) Beyond Belief, by Josh Hamilton

(2) Coldplay's Viva la Vida

(3) Bill James' 2009 Bill James Handbook

As you can tell from the title of this post, I received only one of these gifts... and for that I am thankful.

Nothing against Josh Hamilton or Chris Martin and the guys of Coldplay, I'm sure their respective products are great (and Grammy-nominated in some cases), but Bill James' 2009 Handbook is a priceless necessity to my fantasy baseball preparation.

Now, I don't expect everyone to begin their fantasy prep at the beginning of January, but, in all honestly, I couldn't wait to dive into James' predictions and see what he's forecasting for a few batters in 2009.

Two days ago, I started my journey through pages and pages of statistics. Who would be this year's Carlos Quentin? Who would be this year's Robinson Cano? Who did I forget about already?

To say the least, any free moment I had in the past few days as been devoted to sitting in an uncomfortable chair, hunching over my copy of The Bill James Handbook, and crunching numbers in search of a few diamonds in the rough.

Over the next few days, I'm going to remind you all of a few players you should re-familiarize yourself with in the months leading up to Spring Training. Before, I do this, however, I want to give you an indication of the scoring system for my fantasy league. This is seen below:

I'll throw of the pitching categories later on... but for now, I'm focusing strictly on the offensive side of the playing field. The rundown of events will begin today with Catchers, followed by First basemen, Second, Third, Short, OF, and Utility. Again, all my statistical projections will be derived from those of Bill James and his team, so stay tuned.

***Addendum***

Fantasy Baseball Prep: Catchers

Fantasy Baseball Prep: First Base

Fantasy Baseball Prep: Second Base

Fantasy Baseball Prep: Third Base

Fantasy Baseball Prep: Shortstop

Fantasy Baseball Prep: Outfield

Mark Teixeira to the Yankees; 8 years $170+ million

2008-12-23T15:36:00.002-05:00

Just got word from a more-than-reliable source at a more-than-reliable sports network who informed me that the Yankees have just locked up Mark Teixeira to a ridiculous 8-year, $170+ million dollar contract.

I'll be back with more about Tex's new-Yankee value later on. For now here's a list of links with the story rundown:

John Heyman on the Yanks and Teixeira
MLBTRADERUMORS.com coverage
ESPN.com's Baseball Coverage

Again, more on this later... I just wanted to get the news out as quickly as I could.

A.J. Burnett Brings His PWR/GB Stats To The Bronx

2008-12-13T11:07:00.003-05:00

The story is covered in length by the New York Post's George A. King III here. The most interesting excerpt I found, though, was this:

"And the Yankees, who had $88 million come off the books after a very discouraging 2008 season, still have money to chase Derek Lowe, Ben Sheets, Andy Pettitte and possibly Mark Teixeira or Manny Ramirez."

Now, before getting to the fantasy impact of A.J. Burnett's arrival, I have to weigh in and say that I cannot see the Yankees chasing Derek Lowe or Mark Teixeira of all the names listed above. Its been made apparent that the 5th spot in the Yankees rotation belongs to Pettitte, if he wants it. If not, enter Ben Sheets. It's about as simple as that.

Again, I'm not going to pick up the Manny Ramirez torch, but, as I outline here, I think Manny would absolutely accept the same offer the Dodgers made (2 years, 50 million) if it was offered by the Yankees. He would then be the team's full-time DH and clean-up hitter for 2009-2010.

Aside from all this housekeeping, let's get down to the meat-and-potatoes of this post: A.J. Burnett. In Ron Shandler's 2008 Forecaster, he classifies Burnett as a PWR-GB (Power-Ground ball pitcher). Essentially, this classification is defined by a pitcher whose GB rate is over 50% and who limits balls in play by strikeouts, walks, or both. In Burnett's case, let's take a look at the numbers:

2006: 135 IP, 118 K's, 39 BB

2007: 165 IP, 176 K's, 66 BB

2008: 221 IP, 231 K's, 86 BB

Okay... so his BB/9 for 2006-2008 are 2.6, 3.6, and 3.5; which aren't the greatest... but aren't horrible either. I like to see semi-consistent numbers here because we'll have an indication of what to expect in 2009. His K/9, on the other-hand, is ridiculous (2006-2008): 7.8, 9.6, and 9.4. Again, a pretty good model of consistency over the past three seasons.

Consistency, statistically-speaking, hasn't been the problem with Burnett. Consistency, medically-speaking, has. For this reason, drafting Burnett will always be a risky situation. Judging his fantasy value is easy. If healthy, he'll be dominant in a fantasy league. However, is drafting Burnett the most cost-effective approach to winning?

Looking at the difference in offense, the 2007 Yankees scored 215 more runs than the 2007 Blue Jays while batting, as a team, 31-points higher (.290). The bullpens, tell a bit of a different story, though. IN 2007, the Toronto bullpen features a 2.94 ERA in 425 IP, nearly an earned-run less than the Yankees' 3.79 ERA in 543 IP (thanks for Baseball-Reference for the help).

While the Yankees' 2009 bullpen will not be a carbon copy of their 2008 counterparts, there is no, I repeat: no, way they're going to put up a 2.94 bullpen ERA. And while Burnett won't necessarily need the help from the bullpen... it would definitely be a nice cushion to fall back on for those rough nights.

Listen, all this is arbitrary at this point. Entering the 2009 baseball season, A.J. Burnett is going to be ranked in the Top-10 starting pitchers of every fantasy board. I would try to avoid being the team that drafts him because of the injury problems. There are two ways to avoid this problem: (A) draft a better SP early and put the pressure on your opponents to pull-the-trigger on Brunett, or (B) draft Burnett with a pick, then draft a high-end SP with the following pick for insurance.

If you're like me, you're allergic to the high-maintenance fantasy pitchers like Burnett, and likely choose 'Option-A.' I enjoy seeing people forced into drafting players they don't whole-heartedly love... and leaving a Burnett out on the table should put a rival in that more-than-precarious situation.

J.J. Putz, Aaron Heilman, and Brandon Morrow: The Anatomy of a Trade... Fantasy Style

2008-12-11T10:37:00.005-05:00

Before we get ready to Rock-and-Roll, let me throw a few good articles about this story your way:

The ESPN crew chronicles the path if this deal from Wednesday night into Thursday morning, here.
The NY Daily News' Adam Rubin, too, follows the development of this deal on his blog.
Finally we have our old reliable(s): John Heyman and Ken Rosenthal.

Now that you have the news about how vastly improved the Mets' bullpen is, let's get down to the fantasy values of these players:

J.J. Putz's value is non-existent in most mainstream leagues. I played in a Roto-League last year that gave a decent amount of weight to the holds category. To be honest, I used a few Mets (Pedro Feliciano, Joe Smith) during the course of the season and they all did a more-than serviceable job during their respective tenures on my team. In a league like the one I'm speaking of, Putz would be a GREAT catch, and here's why:

2006: 2.30 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 1.33 K/IP

2007: 1.38 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, 1.14 K/IP

2008: 3.88 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 1.22 K/IP

Look at that strike-out to innings pitched ratio! That's ridiculous! This is a guy who, as Ken Rosenthal says (in the above link), wants to be a closer... and deserves to be. However, he's going to have to suck it up and enjoy his lack of fantasy value this season while he sets up for K-Rod and the Mets. That all said, the second K-Rod goes down with an elbow, shoulder, or fore-arm injury... dive onto Putz head-first... because he's that good. Fantasy Diagnosis: Pass... but monitor K-Rod's health throughout the season.

Aaron Heilman's wish has finally been fulfilled; he's now a starting pitcher! After finding his "home in a relief role" in 2007, Heilman faced eviction in 2008 (Ron Shandler's 2008 Baseball Forecaster). In 2005, 2006 and 2007, despite Mets' fans' hatred of Heilman's attitude and relief pitching, he put up decent... and improving numbers:

2005: 3.17 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 47.4 GB%

2006: 3.62 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 47.6 GB%

2007: 3.03 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 48.1 GB%

Then... 2008 happened:

2008: 5.21 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 24.3 GB% (thanks to MetsGeek for the stats help).

So, Mets' fans were finally justified for their hatred of Aaron Heilman... but was 2008 a fluke or a sign of things to come in Seattle? My best guess is that 2008 was a fluke. My reasoning is based less on numbers and more on history. Heilman's age (30) is not the typical age of decline in major league players. In fact, this is considered the prime of his baseball life (the time in his career when he puts up his best numbers). Second, the most successful relief pitcher conversions have been predominantly ground ball pitchers. Examples of this include Miguel Batista, Adam Wainwright, Derek Lowe, and Braden Looper.

In the end, I think Heilman will have good success in Seattle as a starter and is definitely someone I would consider drafting in the back-end of my fantasy baseball draft (if not someone I follow on waivers for a good portion of the first month of the season). Fantasy Diagnosis: Draft and hold in the later rounds. He has the potential to be a surprising sleeper candidate.

Brandon Morrow is best known for filling for J.J. Putz for a majority of his injury plagued 2008. He finished the year with 10 saves for Seattle en route to a 3.34 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. However, that's not the Brandon Morrow that sticks out in my mind... the Brandon Morrow I remember from 2008 is Brandon Morrow, "The Starter," who nearly No-Hit the New York Yankees in his first major league start (broken up in the 8th, box score here).

Fantasy baseballers generally felt that Morrow was going to be 2009's Joba Chamberlain, a guy who would have value no matter what role he fulfilled. With J.J. Putz's departure, however, Morrow's role becomes somewhat more solidified as the closer for the Seattle Mariners. Morrow's not thrilled about this, as he wants to be a starter in the majors, but the arrival of Heilman and trade of Putz leave him with the role (unless Seattle trades/signs another closer... which is not going to happen... they're clearly in rebuilding mode right now).

Personally, I'm with Morrow. After I saw him physically handicap the Yankees last September, I was excited to see more of what this kid had to offer from a starter's perspective. As it stands now, he'll have to settle for being a great closer on a bad team. Fantasy Diagnosis: As a closer, Morrow has value, but his true worth comes as a starter. If you're in a deep keeper league draft and hold Morrow for the future. Otherwise, 2009 may not be the year you truly see Morrow shine his brightest.

C.C.'s Yankee Fantasy Value

2008-12-10T11:09:00.006-05:00

Late last night, Yankees' GM, Brian Cashman, departed Las Vegas for San Francisco to meet with C.C. Sabathia and agent Greg Genske.

Tyler Kepner of the New York Times is keeping the story updated here.
Joel Sherman, of the New York Post, broke the story here.
And I'd be remised if I neglected to mention Peter Abraham's on-going Yankee coverage at the Winter Meetings (which you can find here).

Now that all the background information is covered, let's get down to business. From a fantasy perspective, I can't see Sabathia's value increasing or decreasing. The Yankees' offense, on a good day, is just as good as the offense the Brewers put on the field. After the All-Star break, however, the Brewers slumped badly with a .753 team OPS. The Yankees, on the other hand, featured a .794 team OPS. Both aren't great... but if you had to choose the lesser of two evils, it'd be the Yankees.

While Sabathia will definitely benefit the Yankees by delivering a bona fide ace to the Bronx for, arguably, the first time since Roger Clemens donned the pin-stripes, I'm not sure the same can be said for the Yankees' impact on Sabathia.

He returns to the AL, where he struggled in the first half of 2008. While this may be due, in part to pitching for the disappointing Cleveland Indians, I don't wholeheartedly buy into that. Let's not forget that the American League Cy Young, Cliff Lee, came from the same team that allegedly handicapped Sabathia. Here's Sabathia's numbers over the past 3 seasons facing AL East opponents. I adjusted the numbers to reflect Sabathia's numbers against AL East teams excluding the Yankees:

2008: Home v. AL East Opponents (excluding NYY): 1-0, 1.29 ERA, 1.14 WHIP

2007: Home v. AL East Opponents (excluding NYY): 3-1, 2.78 ERA, 1.33 WHIP

2006: Home v. AL East Opponents (excluding NYY): 3-1, 2.19 ERA, 0.83 WHIP

Aside from 2008's skewed numbers (due to the Cle-Mil trade mid-season), Sabathia has proven his worth against AL East opponents.

To me, this trade won't improve or hinder C.C. Sabathia's numbers. He will, barring injury, be the same stud pitcher he's been over the past three years. However, looking at this deal from a team v. individual perspective, the Yankees have come out the winners over Sabathia's non-monetary gains from this deal.

Nick Swisher's Impact on Yankees Offensive Plans

2008-11-16T15:31:00.007-05:00

Nick Swisher to the Yankees... hmm... I thought I read something about that over a month ago. Oh, that's right... I did... on this blog.

Despite the contention of readers that Nick Swisher was not a "Girardi Guy," he was acquired this past week by the pinstripes to play a little centerfield and a little first base (as forecasted by yours truly). Where does this deal leave the Yankees? Well, there's a couple different avenues they can travel to solidify Swish as either a first baseman or an outfielder.

As it stands now, Melky Cabrera is on the outs. He's really never been anything more than a 4th outfield that the Yankees tried to make a CF. I don't know if it was because of the "Got Melky?" shirts or the "el Leche" calls by John Sterling, but either way, the Yankees were stubborn in not realizing what this guy was: a AAAA baseball player.

Next we have everyone's new Flavor of the Week, Brett Gardner. It's uncanny how much Yankee fans don't learn. Starting Brett Gardner in center next year is starting Melky Cabrera all over again! Different name, same game. I know Girardi loves the kid, but love him off your bench in a pinch-running, defensive replacement role. This kid is seriously Dave Roberts with less pop. I know that Yankee fans remember the 2004 play-off collapse against the Red Sox (yeah... sorry to bring that up again). Do you remember what killed the Yankees near the conclusion of each game? Obviously, David Ortiz's bat gets most of the attention, but it was Tito Francona's use of Dave Roberts in the late innings. Roberts would steal second base, and Papi's prowess for clutch hits would bring the speedster in to score. This happened two nights in a row (Games 4 and 5). Ironically, the two games that turned the entire series around for the Red Sox.

The trip down memory lane wasn't designed to have you start tearing up in frustration. It was just used to show you HOW Brett Gardner should be used: off the bench, in late innings, to put pressure on the opposition. So please, please, please stop with this non-sense about Garnder's role as a starter next season. Case closed.

Next, everyone's favorite prospect, Austin Jackson. This kid really, really shouldn't even be considered. But, as we've seen with prospects like Alex Escobar, after hearing about a young player so much, his name is worth than his ability. The guys over at WasWatching detail Jackson's minor league report card, noting specifically that Jackson's good... but not what we've all come to expect from such a prestigious Yankee prospect. With all that said, Jackson may be more valuable to the Yankees in a Padres uniform. That's right, San Diego, reportedly, would require Austin Jackson in any Jake Peavy deal. To that I say, sayonara.

Now, because the Yankees have a noticible lack in CF talent, I motion that they use Swish exclusively as a CF. He played his entire career at Ohio State there and is more athletic than industry sources give him credit for (though he is a bit shaky at 1B).

If you use Swish in CF and move Johnny Damon to 1B (again, as I suggested here), which he is willing to do, you clear the Damon-Matsui log-jam in LF and open up the Designated hitter position.

If the Yankees do this... they now have the option to bring back Jason Giambi at a discounted rate, or make a run at Manny Ramirez. Both of whom would look very good in a offense that's shaping up to look something like this:

1. Damon, 1B

2. Jeter, SS

3. Rodriguez, 3B

4. Ramirez / Giambi*, DH

5. Matsui, LF

6. Nady, RF

7. Posada, C

8. Can0, 2B

9. Swisher, CF

Election Day Manifesto

2008-11-04T14:24:00.007-05:00

Last night I could barely sleep. The feeling was reminiscent of the nervousness/excitement I used to get every Christmas Eve... but, a little over a month away from December 24th, I looked with excitement to 8:30 AM, when I would wake up and vote for Barack Obama.

8:30 AM

Like every morning, my Home Medics Pro Alarm Clock disrupted my sleep with the sounds of waves crashing onto a shore that I've never been to. I hopped out of bed with an extra pep in my step as I hustled to the shower before letting my dogs out for the first time today. I looked in the mirror at a day's worth of facial hair growth and decided not to shave... if there was a day

to look like a hippie-college-grad-Democrat... it was today (thought not hippie-college-grad-Democrat enough to skip the shower).

8:45 AM

Dogs are out and I'm going for the instant gratification of some Honey Nut Cherios. CNN's Morning Election Coverage blares off my television as I inhale my breakfast and hastily make-up a a few cups of coffee. I change to News-12, Long Island and wait for the right moment to begin my journey around the block to Bay Shore Middle School, my designated voting center.

That's my dog, Bernie. He's actually watching the Election coverage with me (the television's across from the wood burning stove in my living room) as he sits on his perch. While continuing morning routine on this most un-routine of days, I open my laptop and discover the people over at Facebook.com provide a friendly reminder to everyone who's been living under a rock for the past year:

9:45 AM

Now seems like the perfect time to vote. I will miss the morning rush and avoid the lunch-breakers. Plus, it's too early for the voting machines to malfunction. So, I switch off the television, log-off of Facebook, and say 'adios' to my puppies as I trot out of my house and down the walk-way to my car. It's time to vote.

9:50 AM

It's "go-time." I roll into the parking lot at Bay Shore Middle School and notice a small sign "prohibiting" any "campaigning on the premises" during Election Day. Ten feet past the sign, there's a man wearing a business suit with a rubber Barack Obama mask on his head. I laugh at the ridiculousness of the situation and slowly roll along down the entrance. He raises his fist to me, his fake rubber eyes meeting mine, and I return the fist raise out of my car's window. It was a true moment of solidarity...

...I then looked around to make sure no one saw the intimate moment between the masked supporter and myself...

...No one did. Moving along.

10:10 AM

My guide. "Vote Aqui," welcome to Bay Shore.

10:13 AM

I'm immediately confronted by a large man who demands my district. Obviously, my youthful look has already discredited everything I should know. He might as well of asked my age as I blew past his ignorant, girthy body and entered the Middle School lobby. The table for District #169 was empty and I hastened my steps until I reached the table.

Perhaps a visual learner, the large man watched from a distance as I passed his "What-To-Do-On-Election-Day" Test.

10:15 AM

My name is signed, and I'm ready to roll. There's one person ahead of me and I look at the photocopy of the voting booth taped to the wall. I look through, make up my mind on several candidate (though I already decided on everything weeks beforehand) and nervously tap the wall with the toe of my shoe and pretend to read some dedications on the wall of the school.

10:17:28 AM

The curtain opens. My turn.

10:20 AM

I click down my last vote and stare at the "Democrat: Barack Obama, Joe Biden" one last time. To it's left was the 'red-X,' signifying my support. I stared long and hard wishing I had that ability from the "Cam Jansen" books we read in Elementary School. This was definitely a different experience from 2004. I care more.

I gripped the red handle to register my vote and took a deep break. Crank.

10:30 AM

This is my attempt to look extremely stoic. Or to have the "Man on a Mission" vibe. Either way, it does the trick (to me anyway... and don't any of you attempt to say otherwise...). My vote was cast, it was out of my hands, and I have one thing on my mind:

10:40 AM

Gotta love Election Day. Exercising your rights and Free Coffee? What a country! I walk into the next town's Starbucks and, once asked by the barista for my order, exclaimed: "I just voted. May I have a free cup of coffee?" The barista acknowledged my vote (by no official means... I'm sure if I really wanted to I could drive around to every Starbucks on Long Island and do the same thing) and gave me a free "tall" (small for those of us who refuse to use Starbucks lingo) coffee:

The Starbucks was actually out of Whole Milk... but on a day like today... who can complain. I'll take Free Coffee, Skim Milk, and Barack Obama any day of the week.

11:40 AM

There's Bernie, again, with his brother, Ziggy. They're both obviously very excited to see me... but only because they both are Obama supporters at heart as well. It's time to settle in, watch the Election Coverage, and prepare (finger's-crossed) for a huge night for Barack Obama and the Democrats.

Democrat Strategists Leaning on MLB?

2008-10-28T21:51:00.003-04:00

Karl Rove is recognized as one of the most brilliant strategists in American politics today. Some love, most love to hate him... but his strategies can only be acknowledged as scarily brilliant and impeccably planned out.

But that's what he's paid for... so why expect anything else.

My question tonight is: Who's taking notes from Karl Rove in the Democratic Party?

Two nights ago, the Philadelphia Phillies were on the verge of winning their first World Series Championship since 1980. For the city of Philadelphia, it would be the first taste of championship glory since the 76ers won the NBA finals in 1983. However, this potentially glorious moment for the Phillies and Philadelphia sports fans was knocked off course by "Mother Nature."

Despite the steady rain throughout the game, MLB Umpires waited until the Tamp Bay Rays had the opportunity to tie the game... which they did on a Carlos Pena two-out, RBI single in the Top of the 6th Inning.

What happened in the bottom of the inning? Well... nothing. Minutes after Carlos Pena tied the game at two, the Umpires called for a postponement of the remained of the game. It seemed as though the Phillies and their fan-base would have to wait another day to bring a World Series home to Philadelphia.

So waited they did. The Phillies. The Rays. The fans. All waiting another 24-hours for the potential conclusion of the 2008 World Series.

But the game never resumed. In fact, Major League Baseball declared the game postponed (again) THREE HOURS before first pitch. Here's an excerpt from MLB.com on the story:

Bob DuPuy, MLB's president and chief operating officer, called the resumption of play on Wednesday night "problematic" even though the weather is supposed to be better.

"It's going to be less wet, less windy and less cold than today, but it's still problematic," he said. "The Commissioner wants to avoid what happened last night and that the game is finished with full integrity."

So the weather is going to "be better," but Bud Selig wants to avoid "what happened last night." Is it that far fetched to wonder how in the world last night can be repeated if the weather is going to be vastly improved from the night before?

Here's the underlying story that's being ignored: Barack Obama's 30-minute commercial.

This commercial was threatened to proceed a re-run of COPS or King of the Hill rather than a World Series game... and, better yet, a potential SERIES CLINCHING World Series game.

Funny how that worked out, huh?

Don't get me wrong here. I support Sen. Obama. I'll be voting for him a week from today when the polls open. But this seems a little too blatant for me to just ignore. The postponement of this game for two-days will not guarantee Sen. Obama's commercial receives the FOX Sports audience (typically blue-collar Joe "Six Pack" / Joe "the Plummer" types) rather than the Simpson's audience (college kids... you know... the one's voting for him already).

If I'm giving the Democratic Party too much credit here... then I'm (not) sorry. If this was some sort of strategic move, kudos. If not... it's still interesting to suppose what was going on behind the scenes in the Commissioner's Office as Bud Selig and the Fox exec's rooted passionately for the Rays to tie the game before they inserted their feet in their respective mouths.

Luckily for them, Carlos Pena saved the day and will now receive the AL MVP and a seat on soon-to-be President Obama's cabinet.

No Lapel Pin? John McCain Obviously Hates America...

2008-10-07T21:10:00.004-04:00

America is in trouble. Yet... three days ago a Cedar Rapids reporter asked Sen. Barack Obama the following question after the Senator delivered a speech at a ralley in Waterloo, IA:

“Is this a fashion statement? Those have been on politicians since Sept. 12, 2001.”

The question referenced the fact that Barack Obama neglected to wear an American Flag lapel pin during the rally. Despite the obvious fact that Obama was jacket-less (therefore, lapel-less), he humored the reporter with an answer to his absurd question.

Fast-forward to tonight: the Second Presidential Debate at Belmont University in Nashville, TN.

All the propaganda that you've been receiving in your e-mail inboxes from the GOP about Obama's non-verbal message of "hating America" through not wearing an American Flag lapel pin is somewhat questioned. Looking at the close-ups on my television I found a great deal of humor in America's favorite war hero, John McCain's lack of an American Flag lapel pin.

Do I think he hates American for not wearing this pin? No, of course not. What kind of idiot would that make me?

If I were a betting man... I'd go out on a limb to say that Barack Obama and the Democratic Party won't be sending out absurd e-mails about the audacity of McCain's lapel pin-less jacket on October 7, 2008.

Week 5 Desperation: Ahman Green

2008-10-05T12:26:00.004-04:00

I know a lot of fantasy-laden offenses have BYEs this week. So I decided to take a look in fantasy purgatory and see who no-one owns and who may have a good start in Week 5.

This week, I'm going back to my roots. When Ahman Green left Seattle and joined the Green Bay Packers, I relied on this bearded-wonder to carry my fantasy squads into the playoffs year-after-year.

This week, Green's ankle is finally healthy enough for real game action. His first assignment, as Steve Slaton's number two, is the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts sport one of the worst rush-defenses in the NFL thus far, and I see Green finishing the day with about 30 rushing yards and at least 1 TD (around 9 points in generic fantasy football leagues).

Also, Matt Shaub is out and Sage Rosenfels will be under center for the Texans. All the more reason to expect Houston to run the ball all-over the Colts lackluster run-stop.

New York Yankees 2009 Off-Season Make-Over

2008-10-01T17:20:00.006-04:00

I've spent the last day and a half looking over the off-season rumblings and grumblings over at MLB Trade Rumors and couldn't help but put my two cents in on the Yankees' off-season game plan.

First, let's get it clear that the Yanks have a lot of payroll being freed with the assumed departures of Jason Giambi, Bobby Abreu, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte, and Carl Pavano (not to mention minor contracts of Morgan Ensberg, Kyle Farnsworth/Pudge Rodriguez, LaTroy Hawkins, Chad Moeller, Chris Woodward, etc). All together, we're looking at a freed-up 75 million (according to Peter Abraham) for this off-season.

Now... going into the off-season here's what the Yankees are rolling with offensively:

Catcher - J. Molina / J. Posada*

Firstbase -

Secondbase - R. Cano

Thirdbase - A. Rodriguez

Shortstop - D. Jeter

Left Field - J. Damon

Center Field -

Right Field - X. Nady

Designated Hitter - H. Matsui

* - Posada plans on catching about 120 -130 games in 2009. I don't really see this as a realistic expectation. He had surgery just past the All-Star Break; so I can only see him realistically playing a little more than half the season at most. Also... wouldn't it be a little bit risky/irresponsible of Joe Girardi to play a 38 year-old catcher coming off shoulder surgery 120 games?

The starting rotation, on the other hand, is much more worse off:

1 - Chien-Ming Wang

2 - Phil Hughes

3 - Alfredo Aceves

4 - Ian Kennedy

5a - Kei Igawa

5b - Darrell Rasner

Essentially, the Yankees would be surrendering before the season even started if they neglected to improve that God-awful pitching staff. No joke: I'd make a case that the rotation listed above would be among the worst in baseball.

Because Brian Cashman and the Yankees recognize this, C.C. Sabathia is the Bronx Bombers' number one target entering the 2008-09 off-season. However, Sabathia is not (repeat NOT) coming to New York. As SI's Jon Heyman notes, Sabathia "loves" the National League and is currently building a home in Orange County, near his family. While the Yankees will, inevitably, bring a huge offer to the table for Sabathia, I can't help but think that the Dodgers and the Giants are going to be the top-two destinations where Sabathia will end up.

This brings us to a flurry of second tier options for the Yankees to consider. It's been made absolutely clear that Yankees' co-chair, Hank Steinbrenner, loves A.J. Burnett. I think this deal gets done as soon as Brian Cashman and the Yankees' brass realize that C.C. to N.Y. is not happening.

Today, Buster Olney, acknowledged something that I've been pushing to Yankee fans for a while now: Derek Lowe in Pinstripes. Think about it: Two of the best sinker ballers in the league (Wang and Lowe) on one team with a decent-enough infield to make it work. I would love this move for the Yanks, and think Lowe would love to come back to the AL East and take on his former team, the Red Sox (afterall... if you can't be in L.A., why not N.Y.C.?).

The Yankees' fantasy rotation should be completed by bringing Andy Pettitte back with a one year contract. If Pettitte decides against playing baseball in 2009, the Yanks have Phil Hughes to fall back on as their 4th or 5th starter.

These signings give the Yankees a rotations looking something like this in 2009:

1 - C. Wang

2 - A. Burnett

3 - A. Pettitte

4 - D. Lowe

5 - P. Hughes

This looks MUCH better than the monstrosity listed above. I know a lot of people are probably reading this and wondering: "Where's Joba?"

The Joba situation is a tough one. Jorge Posada, as a guest on YES' CenterStage a few weeks ago, comment that Joba's shoulder should not be overlooked. Like a young Mariano Rivera, and Kerry Wood after him, Joba may be destined for a role in the bullpen as Mariano's heir apparent.

Think of it this way; in 2009 Mariano Rivera will have a platoon of Phil Coke, Jose Veras, and Edwar Ramirez in the middle innings with Damaso Marte (lhp) and Joba Chamberlain (rhp) doing their best Mike Stanton and Jeff Nelson (circa 1996-1999) impersonations.

I don't know about you... but I think that group has the propensity to be one of the best and most talented bullpens in baseball entering 2009. Combine that with a healthy season from Phil Hughes in the starting rotation and the Yankees are sitting pretty as a play-off contender once again.

Turning back to the offense for a moment; there's obviously some holes that need filling:

Catcher: Obviously, this is going to be a weird set-up for 2009. Jose Molina will be back in the Bronx as will a recuperated Jorge Posada. However, the Yankees are going to need a serviceable platoon partner for the first part of the baseball season. The free agent crop of catchers is extremely thin... maybe bringing in a guy like Greg Zaun or Paul Lo Duca would be the best idea. This way, you can just drop them onto waivers and let them spend the remainder of their one-year deals in Triple-A once Posada comes back to the bigs.

First Base: Big Tex (Mark Teixeira). It seems obvious right? The thing is... do the Yankees want to financially handicap themselves with another outrageously expensive contract? I really don't think that's what Brian Cashman's looking to do this off-season. In fact... I believe that Cashman acquired Xavier Nady this past year for two reasons. First, to fill in for an injured Hideki Matsui (and platoon with a defensive liability in Johnny Damon) and, second, to take over at first base when Jason Giambi's team option is declined during the off-season.

Also, Johnny Damon wants to be thrown into the first base mix next season, according to NY Daily New writer Mark Feinsand. To me, this move makes the most sense. To his credit, Damon goes all-out in the outfield, but a lot of times... this leads to injury. I think moving Damon to first keeps his bat in the line-up, which is what the Yankees really need to keep their offense functioning (despite what my friend, and fellow blogger, Mike Plugh has to say about Damon's offensive inabilities). This move also keeps Nady and, possibly, Matsui in the two corner outfield positions; drastically improving the Yanks' outfield defense.

Second Base: I think Robbie Cano will be back in 2009. The only thing I attempt to trade him for is a young Center Fielder... because the CF market is extremely dry this offseason. A few examples of CF that would fit the bill for possible trading would be the Brewers' Corey Hart, the White Sox Nick Swisher, or maybe the Marlins' Cameron Maybin (with a package of players, of course). The only other chance the Yankees have is to cross-their-fingers and hope the Brewers buy-out Mike Cameron's team option for 2009... thereby making him a free agent this off-season.

If any of these moves are made... look for the Yankees to lock up formet AL East Second Baseman, Orlando Hudson or a serviceable stop-gap like Mark Ellis. Though they could just slide Wilson Betemit in a 2B, I don't trust his durability in the long run.

Third Base and Shortstop: A. Rod, Jeter. Case Closed.

Left Field: I think Hideki Matsui will be back in the LF fold next spring, with Nady moving to RF and Damon getting most of his playing time at 1B. However, I think that the Yankees' big splash this off-season will come with a guy who can play a little LF and a little DH, splitting time with Matsui and Damon in the OF. For now, though, we'll stick with Godzilla in left because his contract and increased batting average last season make this look like a smart idea.

Right Field: The Yanks aren't going to pick up Bobby Abreu's team option; instead shifting Xavier Nady from LF to RF (because it's more cost-effective). Pretty clean-cut here.

Center Field: The Yankees, historically, have always had very good Center Fielders... but this season they have nothing. For this reason I would really like to see them trade Robbie Cano for one of the names listed about (especially if they can't sign Mike Cameron for a few years while Austin Jackson figures things out down on the farm).

Designated Hitter: Manny Ramirez. The Yanks are going to save a lot of money when they don't get Sabathia, and they realize all the talent they can rope with their new freed-up cash (rather than spend it all on one Teixeira). Combine all this with the fact that Hankenstein wants an offensive spark in the worst way... and you're got Manny Being Manny in the new ballpark in the Bronx.

I think signing Ramirez to a 3 year deal would be well-worth the offensive presence he brings to the Yankees' line-up. If the team does this... look for a murderer's row that looks something like this:

1. Johnny Damon, 1B (lefty)

2. Derek Jeter, SS (righty)

3. Manny Ramirez, DH (righty)

4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B (righty)

5. Xavier Nady, RF (righty)

6. Jorge Posada, C (switch)

7. Hideki Matsui, LF (lefty)

8. Nick Swisher, CF (switch)

9. Orlando Hudson, 2B (switch)

Combine that monstocity of a line-up with the improved pitching staff and bullpen in 2009, and I can definitely see the Yankees getting back into the play-offs in 2009.

Sunday in Chicago: Weather Update

2008-09-14T17:24:00.002-04:00

The White Sox and Tigers just started the first game of their double-header on Sunday. However, unless this is the fastest game in American League History (which is unlikely due to the offenses involved), I can't see Johnny Danks starting a second game tonight.

From a fantasy perspective, look for Danks to have two-starts next week... which would be AWESOME for any championship/play-off games in the upcoming scoring period.

I'll update this as I get info. Stay tuned.

Weather Warnings: How the Weather Could Influence Your Pitching Rotation

2008-09-13T13:31:00.006-04:00

I found this useful article on CBS Sports... I thought it might be useful for anyone who's unsure of pitching match-ups for the rest of this week and for next week's scoring period:

Twins @ Orioles

BALTIMORE -- Relentless rain forced Minnesota and Baltimore to play a doubleheader Saturday.

The game never started and was finally called after a delay of nearly two hours.

Saturday's doubleheader will start at 5:05 p.m.

The Twins began the day in second place in the AL Central, one game behind the Chicago White Sox. Minnesota trailed Boston by 5½ games in the wild-card race.

My Take: Glenn Perkins and Scott Baker are set to pitch today (Saturday the 13th) for the Twins. They'll be facing Garrett Olsen and Daniel Cabrera... though I'm sure more fantasy players have the Twins young-hurlers than the Orioles' duo for Saturday's double-headers. Tomorrow, Nick Blackburn and Radhames Liz wrap this puppy up.

However, according to the weather report for this series, the O's and Twins will probably only get the afternoon game in (there's supposed to be a lot of rain and thunder-storm activity in the area

tonight). Tomorrow, there's supposed to much more baseball-friendly weather. I would look for two games for Sunday, rather than Saturday. If you're in a daily league, don't bank on Scott Baker and Daniel Cabrera for today's schedule...

Tigers @ White Sox

CHICAGO -- Rain forced the postponement of the game between Detroit and

Chicago. A makeup date was not immediately set.

Even though batting practice was canceled, the grounds crew worked on the field to dry it out and it appeared the game would start on time. But three minutes before the scheduled 7:11 first pitch, the tarp was rolled out and the field was covered again.

The Tigers were scheduled to start Justin Verlander against Chicago's John Danks on Friday. The series marks Detroit's final appearance in Chicago this season.
It is the AL Central leading White Sox's second rainout of the week. They were also postponed Monday night and then swept in a doubleheader by Toronto on Tuesday.

My Take: According to the weather report in Chicago... I don't think either of these games are going to be played. The first match up pits Kenny Rogers against Javier Vazquez... first pitch is scheduled for 2:55 PM (EST), but 3:00 PM has a 80% chance of precipitation. The second game, scheduled to take place and hour after the conclusion of the first game, offers a Zack Minor - Lance Broadway duel. If, and that's a big IF, the first game does get played... I don't think the second one will...

I would say that a double header would be more likely for Sunday... but that weather report isn't much better. There's a chance that this entire series could be rained out as Sunday has a 70% chance of rain for the entire day (and that's not an exaggeration). Owners of Javier Vazquez (Saturday), John Danks (Sunday), and Justin Verlander (Sunday) should definitely be prepared for each of these starts to be bumped into the beginning of next week. If you're in a weekly league... that means two-starts for each at a pivotal point in the fantasy season... so keep you eye on this developing story.

Braves @ Mets

NEW YORK -- Eager to lock up the NL East title after letting it slip away last

season, the New York will have to wait a day before beginning their taxing stretch drive.

New York's game against the Atlanta Braves was postponed by rain Friday night and will be made up Saturday as part of a single-admission doubleheader beginning at 3:55 p.m.

The tarp stayed on the field all evening Friday and the game was called after a 90-minute delay. Johan Santana (13-7) had been scheduled to pitch for the NL East leaders against ex-Met Mike Hampton (2-2). Pedro Martinez (5-4) was lined up for Saturday against Atlanta lefty Jo-Jo Reyes (3-10).

Now, the Mets are scheduled to play 17 games over the final 16 days of the regular season, without a day off. New York is three games ahead of second-place Philadelphia -- four up in the loss column -- and desperately wants to erase the bitter memories of last September's embarrassing collapse.

My Take: The Mets are going to have really bad weather all day... but no rain, it seems. So if

you have Johan Santana, Mike Hampton (both a 3:55 PM, Easter start), Jo-Jo Reyes, or Jonathan Niese (Game 2 on Saturday)... it seems like all four starters will get their games in. On Sunday, Ollie Perez and Jorge Campillo may experience a delay due to thunder storming, but they'll get the game in at some point. Feel free to treat all three games as if they're guaranteed to occur this weekend.

Brewers @ Phillies

PHILADELPHIA -- Cole Hamels gets to rest an extra day. Brett Myers is ready to pitch whenever the Philadelphia Phillies need him.

Steady rain forced the postponement of a key matchup between the NL wild card-leading Milwaukee Brewers and Phillies on Friday night.

The game will be made up as part of a day-night doubleheader on Sunday. The first game starts at 1:35 p.m. and the nightcap at 7:35 p.m.

The Phillies won the opener of the four-game series Thursday night to move within three games of Milwaukee.

Scheduled starters Hamels (12-9) and Manny Parra (10-7) will start Saturday.

Milwaukee will send Dave Bush (9-10) and Jeff

Suppan (10-8) to the mound Sunday. Joe Blanton (2-0) and Myers (9-11) will pitch for the Phillies.

My Take: Saturday's game between Manny Parra and Cole Hamels is going to feature an annoying drizzle that could come and go creating several minor delays. It wont be enough to cancel the game, but it will be annoying and could influence the starts for each of these pitchers.

Sunday both games will definitely be played. It's supposed to be beautiful... so expect Hammels/Parra (Saturday), David Bush/Joe Blanton (Sunday, Game 1), and Jeff Suppan/Brett Myers (Sunday, Game 2) to all get their games in and stay on regular rest going into next week.

The "Roy Oswalt Situation"

2008-09-12T09:43:00.003-04:00

I, like many of you, drafted Roy Oswalt semi-early in my fantasy draft this year (we're in a five player keeper league, so technically I drafted him at the end of the 6th Round)... and he was absolutely putrid for me.

I want to take a look at Oswalt's Pre-All Star Break numbers compared to his Post-All Star Break numbers just to indicate how unbelievably he's been pitching lately:

Pre: 7-8 (sub .500), 4.56 ERA, 1.39 WHIP

Post: 8-1, 1.94 ERA, 0.88 WHIP

It took 4 looooooong months, but Oswalt is finally acting like the ace of the Astros pitching staff and I am loving it!

However, though I am jumping for joy over this turn-around, I'm also wondering 'why?' What exactly made Roy Oswalt, who many experts deemed 'done' at the beginning of the season, turn his entire game around?

A part of you has to think that it's mental. Think about the Houston organization: this is a team that is notorious for extraordinary second half play. It seems like every year Houston makes a random deal at the trade deadline at clicks for the rest of the season as it chases the Cubs, Cardinals, and Brewers. This season, the Astros currently chase the Phillies and Brewers for the Wild Card (Houston is 3.0 games back of the Brew Crew as of post-time).

With this known, let's look back to last year; a season when Oswalt showed the experts signs that we has slowing down:

6-2, 2.57 ERA, 1.20 WHIP

Is that absolutely putrid? I didn't think so... I mean... Oswalt didn't win very many games, but that's also a byproduct of the Asros themselves not winning very many games. You give Oswalt the command that delivered a 2.57 ERA for the second half of 2007, and he'll win more than 10 games in the second half of 2008... that's all but guaranteed.

But this isn't really enough for me... his double-play balls are about the same, his walks are going to be about the same, but the hits are what's causing his WHIP rate to be so low.

What does this mean?

Well, to me (and I know a lot of people are going to hate this), Oswalt may just be hiding the ball better right now. Maybe Brad Ausmus is calling a better game. Perhaps he's throwing more change-ups than rotator cuff tearing/groin straining fast balls.

Essentially what I'm saying here is: the change might be something that sabermetrics can't measure. This "Roy Oswalt Situation" could be that he made a mechanical change in his pitching during the All Star Break and has been cruising ever since.

Either way... I'm just happy he's figured this out, because he's picked the perfect time to start acting like the ace of a fantasy rotation.

Entourage 5.1

2008-09-08T21:03:00.004-04:00

We come into the opening of Entourage's 5th season in the wake of Medellin, the huge flop project co-produced by E, directed by Billy Walsh, and starring Vince. Richard Roeper has a few funny lines as he talks about this "straight to DVD" flop, noting that Vince's "fat suit that makes him look like the love child of Jimmy Glick and a case of Twinkies."

While Roeper, and virtually anyone else who saw Medellin, tear into the film and Vince's career (or lack thereof), the fallen star seems to be doing everything he can to be getting over the Medellin disaster in his own way... as Vinnie Chase reenters out televisions in an orgy with two Mexican hostesses on a remote beach.

We later discover that Vince has not received a job offer in six months! It really shows too, Vince dons an untamed beard and tattered clothing from living a simplistic existence on the beach with Turtle (who's also enjoying himself...) and (what seems like) dozens of beautiful Mexican women.

Back in the "real" world, Ari and E deal with the Medellin disaster differently. Ari's even too uptight for Ari. He seems stiff, irritable, and sour within minutes of being on camera (Jeremy Piffen, again, does a great job characterizing these characteristics). On the other hand, E has buried himself in building up "The Murphy Group." We later discover E's motivation for putting his energy into his infant firm is because he blames himself for ruining his best friend's career.

Things start to turn around for Vince's team when fictional director Carl Ertz confesses his interest in Vince to Ari. From there, all hell breaks loose...

Ari, after pressuring E (who pressures Johnny Drama for Vince's location), displays his loyalty and friendship to Vince by chartering a flight to his hide-away on a beach in Mexico.

During this whole ordeal, we're treated to classic Johnny Drama, who's in the midst of a Five Towns photo shoot (he's made it clear that he wont shoot from the right because it's his "bad side"). Locking himself in his trailer to protest the shoot, the photographer calls on Ben Silverman, the co-chairman of NBC, to force Drama into the cast photo shoot. Silverman's efforts are thwarted by Drama, however, as he becomes preoccupied with his 'next' dramatic role: rescuing his marooned brother's movie career.

Within the last five minutes of the episode (yes, it was pretty bang-bang after E and Ari flew to Mexico), Vince is convinced by E to come back to L.A., take lunch with Ertz, and begin the Resurrection of Vinnie Case...

Unfortunately, Ertz is essentially using Vince to knock down the asking price of Emile Hirsch... the actor he originally wanted for the role. In the end, Vince's crew has somewhat of a "last laugh" as Johnny Drama and Turtle drive-by Ertz's home, smash his windshield, and lay a dead fish on the hood of his car... signifying Aqua Man's return.

Overall, I thought it was a great episode to bring us back into the season. It didn't drag out the depressed Vin angle and got the group together as a single-unit once again. I also liked how the separate stories of E and Drama are getting a bit more involved. Drama's moving himself beyond the roll of comic relief already and I look forward to seeing what the writers have in store for him this season.

Manny Ramirez... taking attention away from a certain young hurler

2008-08-02T13:27:00.002-04:00

Thank God for Manny Ramirez. Not only does he have the best hair in baseball, but now he's also hogging the Hollywood spotlight and I LOVE IT! Not because I enjoy living vicariously through the most abominable baseball players, but because it takes some attention off other Dodger players who may be on the cusp of fantasy (and baseball) dominance/stardom/relevance (take your pick).

Look back a few months to how much attention Clayton Kershaw received in May. Dodger fans and fantasy aficionados treated this kid like the second coming of the Messiah while others (like myself) found more reliable options while Kershaw took his hits before being demoted to Triple-A.

Now, about two month later, I am ready to jump on board the Clayton Kershaw express. He's pitched two efficient, impressive games in a row and hasn't allowed an earned run in 13.1 consecutive innings. His walks have been cut down over this span and his innings have increased.

Basically, my official recommendation with this kid is to grab him and watch what happens. If you have the room, take a flier and cross your fingers that he does exactly what Chad Billingsley did at the end of 2007 (straight up dominate).

Jorge Posada's Cranky Labarum

2008-07-23T13:20:00.005-04:00

The Journal News' Peter Abraham has the play-by-play of Posada's injury right here. Apparently the injury bug decided to absolutely decimate my team this year. As many of you already know, Posada has now joined a long list of players (John Smoltz, Takashi Saito, etc) who have made this season one of the more difficult ones to manage in recent memory.

However, the Posada injury definitely puts Posada owners in a weird situation. On the one hand, Posada has been told that he needs surgery, in fact... it's been recommended. On the other hand, Posada wants to rest for about 10 days and try to come back as a 1B/DH. Inside sources say that Posada's being pressured to come back by Yankees brass due to his huge contract.

However, I live in New York and, as a result, watch the YES Network and Yankee games on a near nightly basis. I can put to rest the notion that Posada is being pressured to play by Steve Swindell or any of the Yankee Brass. Posada is one of the most prideful baseball players in Major League Baseball and the only reason Posada is considering a comeback is because he loves playing the game.

Enough about Posada's pride. Let's take a look at a few replacement players if Posada realizes that he can't hit either:

Chris Snyder (C, Diamondbacks) was incredible in the second half of 2007. In 161 ABs, his OPS was .889. He swatted 6 Homers and netted 31 RBI, while hitting to a tune of .292. He's a forgotten man in fantasy leagues as he's been on the DL with a testicular fracture (I feel pain just typing that). I would definitely give Snyder a scouting over the next few games while he re-wins the starting job back from Miguel Montero.

According to MLBTradeRumors' Catcher Market, the Yankees may be interested in Gerald Laird (C, Rangers) and Ronny Paulino (C, Pirates). However, I think that the Yanks executing a deal for Rod Barajas (C, Blue Jays) or Greg Zaun (C, Blue Jays) is more realistic. Both Blue Jay Catchers would serve as rent-a-players because they're both eligible for free agency at the end of the season (Barajas has a team option for 2009). To me, both of those players aren't worth it unless they're streaking.

For this reason, Jose Molina (C, NYY)may end up being the best option for anyone who needs a Posada replacement this year. The catcher position is so thin this season, that Molina may put up decent numbers for your fantasy team. He's never been a full-time starter, but he's proven to be a doubles machine for the Yankees in 2008. In the limited ABs over the past two years in the second half, Molina has actually put up better numbers than both Barajas and Zaun. In 2006 he batted .273 with a .729 OPS. In 2007 (his first season with the Yankees), it was more the same: .294 BA and a .738 OPS.

My official advice, for now, is to grab a guy like Molina or Barajas while you wait it out on Posada's decision sometime next week (when he's eligible to come off the DL). While you're doing this, scout out Chris Snyder as the best possible heir to Posada's Catcher spot on your fantasy roster.

I just found this video of Brian Cashman talking about Posada's injury:

Seems kind of grim to me. He's talking about how the "hitting hasn't been there" either. As a Posada owner, I'm prepared for the worst...

God Bless You Glen Perkins

2008-07-19T10:49:00.005-04:00

Any goober (like myself) that didn't dive all over Jonathan Broxton when Takashi Saito injured his arm last week was in a bit of a pickle for this shortened week. A few days ago, I gave one short term solution. This solution wasn't going to get you any saves, he probably wasn't going to get you any strikeouts, in fact, he probably wasn't going to do much... other than pitch beautifully against one of the most fierce offenses in the Majors.

This man is Glen Perkins, the sole recommendation I gave for Saito owners this past week. Last night, Perkins did his best to make me look like a genius for giving him the nod against Josh "The Great Hambino" Hamilton and the Texas Rangers.

Anyone who took that advice got this nice little stat line added to their Box Score for the week:

6 Innings Pitched, 0 Earned Runs, 3 Hits, 3 Walks, 1 Strike out, and 1 Win

Okay, so he didn't set the world on fire, but he helped your ERA with 6 shut out innings and a 'W' never hurts. In points-leagues, he was more than serviceable accruing a respectable number for your team, despite not having very many strike outs.

For now... It's time to say 'Good-Bye' to Glen. That's right, I want you to drop Glen Perkins from your team. You have to always remember what some experts refer to as the "Shawn Chacon Rule:" DON'T CHASE WINS!

More second half pitching recommendations to come soon.

The Joe Blanton Affair

2008-07-17T21:17:00.009-04:00

Baseball really knows how to kick off the second half. For those who are not aware... Joe Blanton has been traded from the Oakland A's to the Philadelphia Phillies for a plethora of minor leaguers.

Obviously, Blanton's going to find his way into the Phillies' starting rotation... which begs the question: Who's Out? There are three options for this one (keeping in mind the Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer are, obviously, safe from being 'voted off the island'): Brett Myers, Kyle Kendrick, and Adam Eaton.

Looking at the numbers, Kendrick has been serviceable of late, winning two of his last four before the break. One of those wins was an 8 Inning, 4 Hit shout-out against the Athletics, where Kendrick really showed the Phils what the 23 year-old is capable of when he puts it all together. To me, I can't see the Phillies messing with Kendrick's standing as a starter. He's been improving throughout the course of the season and it would be dumb to mess with his head at such a young age.

Todd Zolecki, of Philly.com, seems to think it's going to be Adam Eaton who gets the boot from the rotation (and the fans seem to agree wholeheartedly). Over Eaton's last five starts, he allowed 6 earned runs twice and 8 earned runs one time... so... I may have to agree with the Phillies' faithful. He's already a useless fantasy pitcher... check that... he's a useless starting pitcher, period. His ERA at home is nearly 7 and this former Mets-killer, is not even useful for that anymore (ERA approaching 8 v. the Amazin's).

The guys at Rotoworld, however, suggest that Bret t Myers may be the odd-man-out. At first, I (a Brett Myers owner) nearly vomited on my keyboard. He was so close to coming back and now Pat Gillick had to go and screw it all up! Then, after regaining my composure and taking some Mylanta, I decided to take a look at Adam Eaton and Kyle Kendrick's numbers... in hopes that one of the two were godawful. As you can see, from the above paragraph, Eaton is definitely worse than Myers (even if it is the HR-happy version of Myers) and should be demoted to the 'pen or placed on waivers (which is definitely a possibility).

So, for all Brett Myers owners out there... I hope you see this before you head over to Rotoworld so your body doesn't undergo the physical reaction that mine just did. Brett Myers will be back next Monday to start against the New York Mets. Far from a bold prediction, but I think that now is the time for stating what should be "the obvious."

Takashi Saito Update: Dear Lord No!

2008-07-16T01:34:00.006-04:00

So it's not season-ending surgery... but it's a Kelvim Escobar-esque rehab. Essentially, what the Dodgers have informed us all is that Takashi Saito could have surgery, but, in the interest of the organization's play-off aspirations, he's going to take six weeks off and attempt to rehab afterwards.

So this leaves Saito owners who did not grab Jonathan Broxton in a sticky situation... Personally, as you

may have noticed in my last post, I am one of these owners. Due to the short week, I am looking at favorable match-ups that may pay an immediate dividend for me before considering Saito's long-term replacement on my fantasy team.

The most interesting option to me, is Glen Perkins of the Twins. He's on a decent role with the Twinkies and is matched up against a somewhat flammable Kevin Millwood. Though he's facing off against the Rangers, Perkins will be staring down a Home Run Derbied-out Josh Hamilton and two All-Star Game wearied Rangers in Michael Young (who finally ended this madness as I write) and Ian Kinsler.

Over his past three starts, Perkins has been kind of impressive:

June 30: 6.1 Innings, 7 Hits, 2 Earned Runs, 1 Walk, and 7 Strike Outs

July 6: 7.0 Innings, 7 Hits, 3 Earned Runs, 1 Walk, and 3 Strike Outs

July 11: 6.2 Innings, 6 Hits, 2 Earned Runs, 2 Walks, and 2 Strike Outs

In all CBS Sports Fantasy leagues, Perkins has only a 24% ownership. So, if you're looking for a quick fix for the upcoming short week (and can't get Jonathan Broxton), that's the direction I'd go.

I'll be back on later today with some long term replacements for Saito. In the meanwhile, take a look at the three undervalued starters I mentioned last week and a few hot July pitchers I mentioned a few weeks ago.

Saito Watch

2008-07-15T00:40:00.004-04:00

Not to be confused with fellow baseball blogger Mike Plugh's Yuki Saito Watch, this Saito watch surrounds the current elbow ailment of L.A. Dodger closer Takashi Saito. Despite the All Star Break, I'm sure that anyone who has Saito on their fantasy team has been at work refreshing Dodger message boards, Rotoworld, et al. in hopes that some news on this morning's MRI would be revealed.

However, unlike Alex Rodriguez and Scott Boras during last fall's World Series debut, Joe Torre and the Dodgers decided it would be a good idea to wait until after the Home Run Derby and All Star Game to let the world know what exactly is going on with Takashi Saito. Sure it's a classy move... but what else would you expect from an organization run by Joe Torre...

Yet... I can't help but feel a bit selfish. As a Saito owner, I want to know if I'm wasting my time (not to mention a roster spot) with this 38 year-old closer. I know what you're thinking... and I can't blame you for asking: "Fadds, what about Jonathan Broxton? You picked him up... right?"

My answer: "Don't Ask." I spent an entire weekend with my girlfriend. Pools, Barbecues, Beer, Carnivals, you name it... I was there. It was fantastic. But... it cost me Jonathan Broxton. I'm not upset about it... far from it. I just want an answer already! Let me know if it's time for me to add Manny Corpas before Brian Fuentes is traded to either the Yankees or the Phillies (which is a pick up I recommend looking into if you're starved for Saves).

For the latest news on Saito, I've been checking his ProTrade page. They're fairly pessimistic... but I like that straight shooting when it comes to guys on my team. Personally, I wouldn't cut Saito loose just yet... wait for the calm, soothing voice of Joe Torre to let you down easy before making a drastic move like that.

I'll be back tomorrow to let you know who I am looking at as possible replacements for Saito on my team and yours. Until then, have a night cap and attempt to get some sleep despite this uneasy news (especially if you're a team with play-off aspirations).

McGowan/Harang Update

2008-07-10T22:09:00.002-04:00

Apparently my vent session gave mercy to the respective rotator cuff and forearm of Dustin McGowan and Aaron Harang.

For more on their injury updates:

McGowan Will Avoid Surgery

Reds Receive Good News on Harang

Essentially, Harang'll be back before McGowan. He'll probably spend a stint on the DL and get his act together for a few rehab starts. Maybe this will give Dusty Baker time to think twice before starting his ace on two days rest... now the Reds faithful can take a minute and stop having nightmares about Wood, Prior, and Harang.

McGowan, on the other hand, is going to get a second opinion. I don't know if I'd cut him loose if he's just going to do a DL stint. Stay tuned to the blogosphere over the next few days for more updates on McGowan's status.

Dustin McGowan & (maybe) Aaron Harang: The Straw(s) that Broke the Camel's Back

2008-07-10T16:45:00.006-04:00

Seriously, I don't know what's worse this year: the maple bat epidemic or the injured pitcher epidemic. Think about it... unless you've had incredible luck this season, I'm sure you've lost at least one pitcher for an extended period due to injury. Are they not drinking their milk, taking their vitamins, and saying their prayers every night?

Today, news from Blue Jays camp informed the public that Dustin McGowan was the latest "star" pitcher to hit the DL. McGowan's diagnosis: an apparent rotator cuff tear. So that means at least 4 weeks away from baseball activity. Sure, my only knowledge of rotator cuffs comes by way of my love-hate relationship with Chad Pennington (two years in a row)... but I have a feeling it'll be a bit more than just 4 weeks. In fact, I think it's time for every McGowan owner to cut loose and pick up Anibal Sanchez while he's still available in your league. Normally, I'd deliver a few stats about Sanchez... but I'm on the edge right now. My only advice is this: he's a more valuable 2nd half starter than McGowan; cut away.

I know that I can't be the only one who's in complete amazement (which is another way to say I'm beginning to get a little pissed) about this starting pitcher famine. Think about it... the news about McGowan comes the same week that Erik Bedard landed on the DL for what seems like the 70th time this season.

And now... I see message boards and blogs exploding over this. Don't cue the gloomy "dun-dun-DUN," just yet... let's remember there have been similar scares this year (note Jorge Posada, Victor Martinez, etc) that haven't completely killed fantasy baseball squads around the world (and by "completely killed... around the world" I mean, my team survived...). Could you imagine Harang being lost from the Reds for the year? He'd be added to an already crowded list (including Yovanni Gallardo, Jeremy Bonderman, John Smoltz, Chien-Ming Wang and, now, Dustin McGowan) of season-altering starters who are lost for a looooooong time-- if not the season!

So where does this leave us? Well, that rant was somewhat therapeutic for me... but I'm not going to leave you to just commiserate with me. Instead, I'll attempt to throw you a few fliers who've caught my attention:

Josh Johnson: He's a risk... but this season... not so much. I say this because even if he only pitches for a month, his starts could be quality enough to give your Roto stats a nice boost. Don't get me wrong: he's not a fantasy savior by any means. Hell, he's not even the Robin to your ace's Batman. He's more like the Supporting-Actor's sister's neighbor. How does that translate? Well, he'll help you with WHIP and ERA... he's not going much more than 6.0 IP per start and he'll win a decent amount of games... but not an overwhelming amount. Does this description leave you where you started? Maybe. But Johnson's randomness factor may be worth risking against someone like Daniel Cabrera's guaranteed-to-blow-in-the-second-half factor.

Mike Pelfrey: He's owned in my fantasy league... but that's mainly because it's filled with current and former New Yorkers. If he's not owned in your mixed league, you should take a flier on him. I remember a few years ago, Pelfrey was compared to Justin Verlander-lite. Eric Mack described him as having "Verlander-like Stuff." The funny thing (to me, since I don't own him) is that in 2008, Verlander doesn't even have Verlander-like stuff. All shots aside, Pelfrey is maturing before our eyes. The NY media has caught on, which means your fantasy league is not far behind. Take a flier on him now because, from what I've seen, he's already turned the corner and hasn't yet reached his climax.

Jeff Suppan: When he hit the DL, he was the Brewers' number three starter. He comes back as their number five. Insulting? No! That means a lot of possibly cheap wins. He's going to be facing the fading Todd Wellemeyers and Ian Snells/Tom Gorzelannys of the NL Central for the 2nd half of 2008. As I said about Josh Johnson... don't rely on him as a weekly-start, rather look to him for some stat padding in the second half of the season.

House Keeping Items (Kershaw and Bruce) and HOT July Pitchers!!!

2008-06-24T13:39:00.006-04:00

It's been a while... and to be honest, a part of me was waiting to make sure my previous posts about Clayton Kershaw and Jay Bruce were correct... and they were. For everyone who initially ignored my advice, it paid off in the short term. However, as of right now, I still don't have Kershaw and Bruce on my roster... and I'm not really missing them.

Sure, I was wrong about Jake Westbrook. Who could've seen that happening, huh? Jesse Litsch flamed out (for the time being) and Jose Contreras is slowly, but surely, becoming Jose Contreras again.

Today, I wanted to take a look at the top performers for the month of July. I decided to take a look at a player's numbers from 2005 to 2007 and see if there were any positive trends from April to July during said player's career.

Adam Wainwright is currently getting over his middle-finger energy. He's expected to be

ready to rock and roll come July, which, for him, is a huge breakout month. In 41.0 inning from 2005 to 2007, Wainwright sports a 4.61 ERA in April. May doesn't look much better with his 42.0/4.29. Normally, June is when Wainwright really starts to

bust it out. Comparatively, his IP increase to 50+ (52.1) and his ERA drops below the 4.00 mark (3.78). However, July brings about a different pitcher in Wainwright.

While is WHIP doesn't make any heads turn, his ERA shows that he's grinds it out more in July than any previous month. Again, his innings dip back down to 46.0, but his ERA is a miniscule 2.94 in July. What's even better is that he posts historically identical numbers in August as well. I doubt that Wainwright is available in any leagues right now, but he's a definite buy-low candidate in every league (NL-Only, Mixed... you name it, you buy it). Now, I wouldn't jump through fiery rings to obtain him, but Wainwright's just the guy that a championship run needs in the second half of the season.

We've seen Chad Billingsley begin the turn around process this month. For anyone who thinks that he's going to begin a cooling down process in July, think again. For the last two years of his MLB career, Billingsley has put up his best numbers in July. In 70.2 innings pitched, Billingsley's pitched to the tun of a 3.18 ERA. July represents a turnaround month for the Dodgers' young stud as his career ERA before and after the All Star Break is a full run difference (~4.15 before ~3.15 after).

To me, I can't see someone wanting to trade this guy. I have him on my fantasy team and, unless I was including him in a two-for-one that brought me back a superstar, I don't think I would be looking to

deal him right now. If Billingsley's All Star splits are any indication, his 3.54 ERA (as of post time) could conceivably dip below a 3.00 in the second half of the season.

Aaron Harang has been putrid thus far. For every great start he has, he throws two bad ones. As we're all aware, this is a guy who most owners drafted to be a staff anchor, not a guy who gets benched more than once a month due to inconsistencies.

As a buy-low aficionado, I decided to take a look at Harang's 2008 Monthly splits compared to those of his career. Here's what I found:

In April, he over performed. His career ERA of 4+ was erased with a stellar April 2.98 ERA.
In May, the exact opposite happened. His career May ERA of 3.09 was sullied by a despicable 4.98 in 2008.
As the weather warmed in June, Harange continued to cool. There was nearly a 3 run differential between his 2008 ERA (6+) and his career ERA (3+).

With all these things known, I can't help but look at Harang's July numbers and expect his 3.34 career ERA to remain lost. At this point you have to wonder if he's dealing with an injury because he's become progressively worse as the season has gone on. If you want to make a trade for this potential ace, do so at your own risk. There's a huge caveat surrounding Harang at this point in the season.

Fantasy Pitchers (Not Named Kershaw) to Consider

2008-05-30T13:32:00.008-04:00

So Clayton Kershaw's first start went pretty damn well, as Life of Brian regular Mike Plugh pointed out on the comments page of last week's feature on the Dodgers' young starter. However, for those of us not looking to pick up the next big thing (cough-David Price-cough), I have looked through the ownership percentage page at CBS Sports and found a few guys that should definitely be considered for a roster spot in the upcoming weeks:

Jake Westbrook, CLE: He went down with a rib cage injury after only 4 starts and was promptly dropped in a large percentage of fantasy league with little to now bench depth. He's one of those guys that are good... but not good enough for a DL slot on a fantasy roster. His ownership, at its peak, in Week 4 was 76% of CBS Sports leagues. Today it sits at a lackluster 47%. Again, he's not going to single-handedly carry your pitching staff, but for weeks like next week, when he's a two-start pitcher, he is a more than serviceable option in the deepest of fantasy leagues. Just take a look at his first four starts:

April 3: 7.1

IP, 6 hits, 2 ER, 1 BB, and 3 K's

April 8: 9.0 IP, 7 hits, 3 ER, 0 BB, and 4 K's

April 14: 6.1 IP, 7 hits, 1 ER, 3 BB, and 5 K's

April 19: 7.0 IP, 8 hits, 3 ER, 1 BB, and 4 K's

Now, after looking at those numbers take a gander at these:

May 8: 6.0 IP, 9 hits, 5 ER, 1 BB, and 5 K's

May 14: 6.0 IP, 6 hits, 2 ER, 3 BB, and 3 K's

May 20: 6.0 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 1 BB, and 7 K's

May 25: 7.0 IP, 5 hits, 1 ER, 4 BB, and 3 K's

The stats I places above are of a pitcher who, as of right now, is owned in 97% of CBS leagues. Other than the 5/20 strikeout spike for our mystery pitcher, Westbrook looks like a pretty damn good option. For those of you who are sitting on the edge of you seat wondering who this mystery pitcher is... it's none other than the Tigers' extremely underwhelming ace, Justin Verlander.

Jesse Litsch, TOR: His ownership exploded this week to a whopping 59%, despite only 29% of leagues starting him. For that minority, Litsch has done nothing but pitch brilliantly. Of his last six starts*, Litsch has failed to go 7 innings once (5.2 @ Minnesota). During this span he sports and ERA of 2.08 and a .90 WHIP, which is insane. I don't know how anyone is looking at these numbers and passing on this kid. He doesn't strike anyone out (2:1 IP-K ratio), but he doesn't walk anyone either (9 walks in 69 IP...crazy). Other than all of that... these numbers are in line with everything he's done throughout his career, so there's no fine print or "but" after his stat line. Take a look at what I mean:

2006: 158.2 IP, 1.25 WHIP

2007: 187.1 IP, 1.25 WHIP

2008 (so far): 65 IP, 1.15 WHIP

2008 (on pace): 192 IP, 1.15 WHIP, and 3.15 ERA

That projection, to me, is a bit off. I can't see a guy whose career WHIP is 1.25 shaving it down

that much out of no where. Nonetheless, those numbers indicate that Litsch is on pace to fall somewhere in between the 2007 numbers of Greg Maddux and Chien Ming Wang. Wang's ERA is very low and Maddux's is high... but either way, these indicators are telling you to buy Litsch... and soon.

Jose Contreras, ChW: Wait... let me make sure I want to do

this... Hmmm... 42.2 IP, 2.11 ERA, 0.84 WHIP in his last six? Okay. I'll endorse Jose Contreras as an undervalued commodity (as of now). I mean, look at those numbers, that's absolutely filthy! Obviously any fantasy veteran knows that he's not going to keep this streak up. He's too old and been around the block too many times, plus he's a head-case. However, don't let someone else in your league pick him up and use him against you (don't you hate when that happen?). He's a decent start for next week and maybe the week after that... but don't ride him until he dies, because it could be swift and painful for both you and him. I wouldn't put him in the same category as the two guys listed above, but he's definitely worth picking up if you have the available roster space.

Flavor (Hater) of the Week: Jay Bruce

2008-05-27T14:59:00.007-04:00

Last week, Clayton Kershaw, considered by many to be the top pitching prospect in baseball, was the fantasy flavor of the week. Today the Reds made waves by bringing up the best hitting prospect in the minors, Jay Bruce. Upon his call up, Bruce was hitting .364 (Batting Average)/.393 (On-Base Percentage)/.630 (Slugging Percentage) with 10 homers and 37 RBI in 49 games at Triple-A. Immediately, my attention is drawn toward the miniscule differential between Bruce's batting average and OBP. 30 points? Is that it? I mean obviously this kid's knocking the cover off the ball in Triple-A, but I can't imagine that translating seamlessly in the majors... it hardly ever does. Which brings me to my problem with his OBP. Can the kid take a few pitches in the minors? He's not going to me getting a hit during every at-bat in the majors, so it's important that he have impeccable strike zone vision. I can't say that I see that through his numbers though.

In an ESPN Fantasy Baseball article, Will Harris notes that "it is too much to ask for him to duplicate Ryan Braun's improbable 2007 rookie season, if anyone has a chance to make that sort of impact this year, it's Bruce." I don't have any major qualms with this position, I only want to point out how out-of-nowhere Braun's rookie campaign was. Looking back at this minor league numbers, his batting average, like Bruce's, was in the high .300's. However, his OBP was always at least .600 points higher than his batting average. Bruce's Single and Double-A numbers are freakishly in line with those of Braun, however his Triple-A numbers provide a clear differentiation:

Braun (in 34 games): .342/.418/.701

Bruce (in 49 games): ..364/.393/.630

It's uncontested that Bruce puts the bat on the ball more than Braun did in Triple-A, but Braun's recognition between balls and strikes is what made, and continues to make, him so dangerous. Let's face it, MLB pitchers are out to exploit impatient young hitters like Bruce. A young hitter should establish himself as a guy who's willing to take a few pitches and make the pitcher work for an out... not to just swing away because its worked in the past, that just doesn't work.

I think that Bruce is going to make an impact in the majors. He plays in a small enough ballpark and will definitely have some sort of protection in the line up, no matter where he bats. If Joey Votto is any indication of how a transitioning batter reacts in the Reds' line up when called up to the majors, Bruce should definitely be fine.

For fantasy purposes, it's difficult for me to recommend dropping someone for him. I like to see guys work for a spot on my roster before I dump someone proven for a rookie. Not only that, but outfield has been so incredibly deep this season, I would only consider a guy like Bruce in a really deep mixed league, or a league that requires that you start more than 3 OFs a night/week.

In the end, I'd sit on Jay Bruce. If someone picks him up... good for them. Let Bruce prove you wrong on someone else's roster rather than having you suffer through the growing pains of a young hitter. Try to remember that Ryan Braun doesn't happen every year... the odds are in your favor.

Clayton Kershaw: An Analysis

2008-05-24T00:10:00.006-04:00

Yesterday when I logged onto Rotoworld, I noticed a short note coming from the Los Angeles Dodgers' official homepage: "Clayton Kershaw was pulled from his start for Double-A Jacksonville after just one inning on Thursday, suggesting that he's on his way to the majors." I was almost moved to pick this kid up for my team and ride him to the Promised Land. I have missed out, in years past, on the likes of Francisco Liriano, Yovanni Gallardo, and (this year) Edison Volquez. Of course, it was my own fault. I was slow to action and, as a result, I lost the opportunity to bolster my rotation for the second half of the season.

As of right now, I am still incredibly slow to act on this young man... but I am not so sure that my pensive approach is completely unwarranted. Let's take a step back here. Yes, Clayton Kershaw is better than Esteban Loaiza. Yes, despite his bad record in Double-A this season (0-3) his numbers (2.21 ERA in 36 2/3 innings) have been incredible. Yes, Joe Torre is his manager. Of those three yeses, Joe Torre is my biggest concern. It's hard to say if the way in which the likes of Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, and Joba Chamberlain were handled under the 2007 Yankees had a lot or a little to do with Torre... but, for fantasy purposes, I am sure that I don't want the 2008 version of any of those players.

Let's just take a minute and look at the comparables of a few of the young pitchers who have come up to the bigs over the past few years. For me, Innings Pitches is the most important category, as it demonstrates a potential innings limit any potential starter may see as a big league pitcher. There's no way a Major League franchise risks its future on a guy who has barely seen 100 IP in a season while on the farm. Here's a look at a few of the young arms of yesteryear:

Phil Hughes, NYY: In 2005, 85.4 Innings effective innings with 93 strikeouts and a 0.87 WHIP. So for as many batters as Hughes dominates in the strikeout department, he wasn't allowing terribly many base runners while on the hill either. In 2006, 146 IP, 168 K's, and a 0.87 WHIP, demonstrating, again, that Hughes was absolutely dominating from the full wind up. However, as Yankee fans remember from the 2007 version of Phil Hughes, he had difficultly pitching from the stretch. He was so dominating in the minors, that the scarcity of base runners handicapped his ability to perfect pitching from the stretch.

Francisco Liriano, MIN: Here's Liriano's IP over his minor league career:

2001: 71
2002: 80
2003 (Injury Shortened): 9
2004: 156.2
2005: 191.1

Here's the next extreme. Liriano was making steady progress in '01 and '02 before his injury shortened '03. Then, out of no where, he was somehow allowed to throw 150+ innings a year after coming off an debilitating injury (which is ridiculous when looking at these numbers, but I digress). In 2005, the Twins saw Liriano nearly throw 200 innings in Double-A, Triple-A, and the Majors. In 2006, we all saw what happened, Liriano threw 121 innings, and blew his arm out. Obviously, Liriano's 2006 injury, as well as the injuries to high-profile prospects like Mark Prior and Kerry Wood (years ago), has led to a different approach for some organizations when dealing with pitching prospects, a la 2007 Yankees.

Yovanni Gallardo, MIL: To me, Gallardo was dealt with the best of these three prospects. In 2004, he threw 26.2 IP. In 2005, Gallardo took a huge leap with 121.1 IP for Single-A West Virginia. In 2006, between Single-A and Double-A he, again, increased his workload with 155 IP. In 2007, as we all remember, he threw a combined 188 IP between Triple-A and MLB. Gallardo received the most pampering and, therefore, provided the Brewers with a dominating ace that only a freak injury could snatch away.

And now, we return to our old friend Clayton Kershaw. Which of these three paths will he follow? Let's take a look:

In 2006, Kershaw threw 37 innings in the rookie league. In 2007, between Single and Double-A, Kershaw threw 122 innings, a huge increase over his rookie league campaign. Thus far in 2008, he's thrown 43.1 innings, striking out 47, with a 1.09 WHIP. Looking back over the last three years, the only Hughesian WHIP he's ever maintained was in the rookie league, after that he's allowed enough base runners to work on his pitching from the stretch.

However, the Liriano/Prior/Wood problem, as we've seen last year with the '07 Yankees, is something that is usually fresh on Joe Torre's mind. Hughes, Kennedy, and Chamberlain were all kept on a strict innings limit and, in 2008, the Dodgers have announced that they do not want Kershaw throwing more that 25 innings a month. Torre has shown in seasons past that the front offices' wish is his command when it comes to decisions such as this one.

Does your team really need a guy who, at most will be throwing 5-6 innings a start. Remember how frustrating Felix Hernandez was two years ago when Seattle placed the same inning limitations on him? Combine these inning limitations with the fact that Kershaw is a strikeout pitcher and his fantasy owners will be lucky if he makes it out of the 4th inning for each start.
It's a shame that this is the situation, but if I were the Dodgers, I'd look to the way in which the Brewers managed Yovanni Gallardo and deal with Kershaw in this same way. For me, I passed on Kershaw for this year and picked up his compete antithesis: Jake Westbrook, and innings-eater.

Carlos Quentin: 2008 Surprise? Not According to the Numbers

2008-05-20T21:22:00.008-04:00

It's incredible how out-of-no-where Carlos Quentin has been in 2008... or has it? Last year, Quentin was receiving the same hype leading into 2007 that Hunter Pence received going into this season. In 2005 Quentin knocked out 21 home runs in Triple-A Tuscan on the Diamondbacks' farm, all the while batting .301 with an OPS over .900. After that season, scouts and fans alike were drooling over this 23-year old's potential. Baseball Prospectus said Quentin's 2005 numbers were a true testament to his ability, as he was fresh off Tommy John surgery in the previous season. BP's 2006 projection: 15 homers, .268 BA, and a OPS over .800. Not a bad projection for a rookie outfielder in a then-empty D-Backs line-up.

Baseball Think Factory's ZiPS projected Quentin to knock out 15 home runs, bat .269, to the tune of a .778 OPS. Again, not too bad a projection for a guy who, up until that point, had never seen a major league pitch. As it turns out, Quentin received little time in the Majors in 2006. His combined numbers between Triple-A and the MLB: 18 homers, a .276 BA, with a .912 OPS in Triple-A and a .872 OPS in the Majors.

While the batting average was not fantastic... let's be honest with ourselves, that's pretty damn impressive for a rookie. Combine that with the .872 OPS, and you have yourself a nice looking prospect.

In the 2007 edition of Baseball Prospectus, the projections were on the conservative side (not that I am ever expecting Matthew Berry-esque projections from the folks at BP): 18 homers, .285 BA, and a .872 OPS. Essentially the BP team was expecting more the same from Quentin in the OPS department (more slanted toward the OBP than the SLG%) with an increase in BA. They didn't really offer an explaination, but they didn't really need to either. Quentin was, at best, going to be splitting time with guys like Chad Tracy, (an unproven) Eric Byrnes, Scott Hairston, and two high-end prospects named Justin Upton and Chris Young. Essentially, Quentin's talent was going to be strangled by platoons in

2007.

Ron Shandler, more-less, sided with the BP experts: 20 homers, .275, and .841. For Shandler, however, Quentin's "power may arrive before [batting average], but both are on the way." So, depending on which book you place your trust in, Quentin was either going to see an increase in batting average (BP) or power (Shandler).

What happened? Both were wrong. Quentin suffered a torn labrum in the early goings of 2007 and never really got back on track. Both his power (9 homers) and batting average (.258) fell and left both our experts turned off (BP: 11-.263-.788, Shandler: 12-.262-.754). What both sources may have dismissed as 'fluke' was Quentin's SLG% of .400 in 2007...

Now, obviously, hind-sight is 20-20 and Quentin, after being dealt from the D-Backs (who had no room for him anyway) to the Chicago White Sox, is absolutely raking. As I am writing this, he just hit his 12th home run of the year, putting him on a pace for more than 40 in 2008. His OBP is in David Ortiz's realm at 1.004 and he's hitting over .300 while batting 2nd in a potent White Sox line-up.

Quentin went through, what I like to call, the "Hank Blalock Effect (named after Blalock who, after being hyped like nobody's business in 2001, failed to meet expectations in 2002-- Only before breaking out without warning in 2003 after he was left on the scrap heap by fans and analysts). Is Quentin going to keep this pace up? Probably not. But it's still great to see him rising like a phoenix (no Arizona pun intended) this season for both White Sox fans and for fantasy baseball owners. Like Blalock in 2003, it's going to be hard for this guy to keep this pace up... but that doesn't mean you shouldn't enjoy it while it lasts.

Review: Big Papi

2008-05-19T23:17:00.008-04:00

When you sit down and think about the most lovable players in the Major League today, you can't make it through the Top-Five without mentioning David Ortiz. I just finished Big Papi: My Story of Big Dreams and Big Hits (St. Martin's Press, 2007), a book co-authored by Ortiz (with Tony Massarotti) which details his journey from the make-shift fields of the Dominican Republic to the big stage of the Majors.

Every baseball fan knows about David Ortiz's rise from relative obscurity on the Minnesota Twins' bench to the clean-up spot of the World Champion Boston Red Sox, but Big Papi provides a look into the emotional roller coaster that each MLB player takes a ride on at some point in their careers. For instance, Ortiz's first taste of Major League action came when he tried out for scouts of the then-expansion Florida Marlins in the Dominican Republic. As Ortiz was unaccustomed to playing baseball on a regular basis (his only experience at this point, as a 16-year old, was playing with the neighborhood kids in his town), he injured his wrist and, as a result, became an unattractive option for the Marlins.

After this immediate let-down, Ortiz was signed as a 16-year old by the Seattle Mariners. During his time with the Mariners, Ortiz recalls seeing evidence of Seattle's willingness to rush young talent to the Majors through the arrivals of Ken Griffey Junior and Alex Rodriguez. In some cases, the Mariners' hyped talent was traded for proven veterans rather than called-up to Seattle. In 1996, Ortiz was one such expendable commodity as he was shipped to the Twins as a "player to be named" for Third baseman Dave Hollins. Though Ortiz was upset to be leaving the Mariners, he recalls that he was also excited because he was "wanted."

In 1997, after not making it past Double-A with the Mariners' organization, Ortiz blew through the entire Twins' Farm System and got the call to the Majors for the first time in his career. Once there, however, Ortiz was constantly tinkered with by coaches and managers (specifically Tom Kelly), who wanted him to go the other way and hit line drives rather than do what he does best: mash. As much of a problem as Ortiz had with the Twins front office and management, he recalls having a great bond with his teammates. Specifically, Tony Massarotti details his relationship with Torii Hunter, a teammate of Ortiz's both in the minor and major leagues.

In the "Stepping Out of the Box" chapters, authored by Massarotti, the book takes a different tone. The most comparable sports work that I can relate it to is the style that Buster Olney writes Last Night of the Yankee Dynasty. The behind-the-scenes approach to Ortiz's years in the Minnesota Farm System, the Majors with Boston, and in the front offices of the

Twins and Red Sox really do a great job filling in the specifics of Ortiz's (at times) vague descriptions of events and details.

One event that Ortiz does shed a great deal of light on is his release from Minnesota. According to Ortiz, it was Pedro Martinez, formerly of the Red Sox, who convinced Theo Epstein to bring Ortiz into the Red Sox organization. Not only did Pedro help bring Big Papi to the Sox, but he also fought with former Boston skipper Grady Little about inserting Ortiz into the line-up whenever he toed the rubber.

As Ortiz points out so many times in Big Papi, it's hard to imagine what things would have been like had he not spoken to Pedro on the night of his release.

In the end, Big Papi is a quick, easy read and is definitely something to consider during the Summer month while baseball is in the air. After reading the book, I can't help but feel bad for David Ortiz when thinking about the two MVPs (2005 & 2006) that he lost out on virtually due to his standing as a Designated-Hitter. The book gives an honest representation of one of the most likable guys in the game, no matter what team you pull for.

Pennsylvania Debate: 1st Half, non-issue fluff. 2nd Half: Real Issues.

2008-04-16T21:53:00.004-04:00

The first half of tonight’s “debate” between Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton was absurd. The debate began at 8 PM Eastern and literally no real issues were covered for the first 50 minutes. The tide turned once George Stephanopoulos and Charlie Gibson focused on the withdrawing of troops from Iraq. Before this turnaround occurred at 8:50 PM, anyone viewing the debate received tabloid garbage news from both Obama and Clinton.

But whose fault is this? Is it ABC’s for actually posing questions about sniper fire in Bosnia, racist ministers, and shady individuals know by each candidate? Not entirely. If you dig down into the belly of the beast, it is each of the politicians who are to blame. Looking back to a three-way attack Sen. Obama faced about his minister, Rev. Jeremiah Wright. Watching this exchange, it seemed more like a trashy talk show than a Presidential debate.

However, it wasn’t strictly Obama who was on the receiving end of “issue” attacks. Gibson and Stephanopoulos also attempted to, again, make Hillary Clinton talk about how ridiculous her sniper fire story in Bosnia was. Is this really a pressing issue? This question counts as the third time that this absurd story has swept through the mass media. The first was when it initially “broke.” The second, when former-President Clinton decided to randomly bring it up at a talk he gave just over a week ago. The third comes tonight.

It really baffles me that these two stories that the American people have had force-fed down their throats are coming up again! Not only that… but taking away from the time that two candidates for the PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES could be discussing REAL ISSUES! It is disgusting that the first hour of this two-hour debate was on nonsense that people really should not base their votes on. Especially since the second half of the debate hit real issues that people should take into consideration when casting their ballots next week and in November.

In the issue of Iraq, Hillary Clinton had her best showing thus far. She spoke about not knowing what will happen if US troops are withdrawn from Iraq. However, Sen. Clinton said that we do know that troops are continually in danger and dying in Iraq if the United States remains overseas. This is the first time that I can remember, that Sen. Clinton took a solid stance on the removal of troops from Iraq. She also listed three specific factors that remaining in Iraq will result in: (1) Iraq will continue it’s dependency issues and passive approach to independence so long as the US remains. (2) The U.S. Military will continue to be stretched thin as troops will be forced into third, fourth, and fifth tours of duty in the Middle East. Lastly, (3) The U.S. will not give its full attention to more pressing issues (e.g. the economy).

However, this strong position began to fade once Sen. Clinton and Sen. Obama addressed the social security crisis. During this juncture, Sen. Obama called Clinton’s bluff about waiving a magic wand and fixing the social security crisis. At this point, I was expecting a specific approach or example that Sen. Clinton had up her sleeve. No. Her response was, “We’re gonna work it out, we’re gonna make it happen.” ABC went to commercial right after that “response,” and I sat back and wondered… Was that really just her response? If there was any chance of her running away with this debate, it fell flat at that very moment.

The debate closed with a lack of commitment on gun issues and a lack of furtherance on propositions of transforming affirmative action at some point down the line. It’s hard not to think that both candidates could have expanded on both of these issues that they danced around if the entire first half of the debate was not spent delving through non-issues. It saddens me to know that there are some people who turned off the debate after an hour or less. Those who did so only received information about irrelevant topics (like church minister and imaginary sniper fire) that could potentially decide for whom they case their votes, and that is a sad reality of our political coverage.

Coping With Soriano's Calf Injury: OPS Replacements

2008-04-16T14:12:00.008-04:00

Seriously, who hops around while catching a fly ball? For those who did not witness Alfonso Soriano straining his calf muscle on Tuesday night in Chicago firsthand, it looked as though he was readying himself to turn a double play at second base. We’ve witnessed his unorthodox sidearm/sub-marine throwing motion in left field, but the whole dancing around an imaginary second base is unacceptable. All Lou Pinella can say is: "It seems like a natural move for him." No way, Lou… maybe that’s because people have been fooling themselves thinking he belongs in the outfield. Now before anyone busts out his outfield assist numbers over the past few years, answer this: Would you not try to run on a converted second baseman? Of course you would! Soriano surprised some people and raked up the stats in the process. There’s no way he and superior defenders like Jose Guillen, Ichiro, and Melky Cabrera should be in the same category.

However, that rant is for another day. By now, I’m sure you can tell that Alfonso Soriano is on my fantasy team and I’m quite ‘miffed’ about his potential DL stint. For anyone who’s looking for a potential replacement for Sori, I’ve come up with a few names who you may be able to trade for or pick up off waivers in the meanwhile. For regular readers of this blog, you know I’m working with Johnny Damon and Andruw Jones on my roster. I also have Rick Ankiel and Grady Sizemore to cycle through as well, so I’m not in the worst shape in the OF, but I’m still on the prowl for a hot bat to insert in my active lineup over hot/cold players like Jones and Damon.

For OPS fiends (like my main man Mike Plugh), I’ve looked back at Soriano’s three year average OPS (2005-07) .874 and compared it to other similar OPS’ over that span. Here are a couple names that jumped out at me:

Luke Scott, BAL: This kid is off to a hot start with the AL East leading O’s so far. He’s hitting .386(BA)-.449(OBP)-.614(SLG) which is entirely respectable for a stopgap player. In his last six games, four of his seven hits have been doubles, which explains the slugging percentage being this high. Could those doubles eventually become home runs? Well, he does play in Camden Yards, so anything is possible. For as good as he’s been playing, you’re not going to get any stolen bases from Scott. He has less than 50 in five years in the minor leagues, so any SBs that come from him are going to be a freak accident.

Bill Hall, MIL: Obviously, this guy is not going to be available in your league, but he may be worth trading for in this instance. Soriano was probably an early pick for you this year and your team is going to struggle without him. So far, Hall his hitting to a tune of .204-.218-.519 and was extremely undervalued entering 2008. So what does this tell us? Well, he’s not taking pitches enough to walk, BUT when he makes contact, it’s usually for more than a single. It looks like he’d be murdering your Roto team, but points leagues may want to take a flyer on him. If his 3-year average is in line with Sori’s, there’s a potential for these numbers to rise as the year rolls along.

Chris Duncan (and Ryan Ludwick), StL: Dear Lord they’re so streaky. Duncan is the player who came up when I ran a 3-year average of OPS, but Ludwick has been just plan crazy for the first two and a half weeks. Staying with Duncan for the time being, his OPS is at .900 for 2008 and, like his brother Shelley, he can go nuts with the long ball for weeks at a time. The whole question with Duncan, though, is health. Well… right now, he’s healthier than Soriano… and that’s all you need to know at the moment. Back to Ludwick, he’s definitely going to be available, but I wouldn’t dive all over him unless you’re in a really, really deep league (I’m thinking 14-16 teams).

So those are three players (technically 4…) who jumped out at me in the 3-year OPS search. Below are a few waiver-wire hotshots who did not show up on that search who you should take a look at in your league:

Nate McLouth, Pit: His OPS is over 1.000 right now, which is Big Papi-esque. He’s a great fill-in for Soriano… but he’s probably already been picked up in your league. I slept on him because he’s a Buck-O, so I’m not going to completely tear you apart for letting him slip through the cracks.

Carlos Quentin, ChW: The anti-Nate McLouth. His OPS is hovering around .750, which is respectable, especially hitting in White Sox potent line up. However, he’s not getting regular ABs, which frustrates me. I was one of the people who thought Quentin was going to explode with the D-Backs last year… and I guess I am still optimistic that this may occur with the ChiSox. Don’t dive on him now… but please monitor him.

Moises Alou, NYM: Every year he’s underrated because of injury and every year he goes nuts when he’s healthy. Unless you’re playing with multiple Met fans in your league, Alou’s probably buried in waivers right now. He’s not going to be a fill-in for Soriano because he’ll be starting up his rehab assignment this weekend. But don’t let another owner in your league pick up a guy who’s OPS has been over .900 over the past four years… I don’t want to see that happen to you.

Andruw Jones: Major League Enigma

2008-04-11T20:49:00.005-04:00

Yesterday, Andruw Jones was released by a team in my fantasy league after new Dodgers Manager Joe Torre benched his high-profile center fielder (please notice my refusal to describe Jones as a ‘star’ center fielder). I jumped on the opportunity to stash Jones on my roster this early on in the 2008 season. Currently, I have Alfonso Soriano and Grady Sizemore as the two regulars in my outfield. The final spot consists of a platoon featuring Rick Ankiel and Johnny Damon (who I defend against fantasy critics here). Naturally, I thought Jones could only help this situation…

This transaction occured the same day Matthew Berry blogged about “regretting the Andruw Jones prediction” of batting .265 with 30 home runs in 2008. Baseball Prospectus knocks about ten points off the average (.256) with one less home run (29). Ron Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster projects nearly identical numbers for Jones as well with a .254 BA with 28 homers. Aside from Berry’s Richie Sexson-esque prediction, BP and Shandler are eerily similar in their projections.

Now let’s look into what people thought about Jones before he began to take the same shape as his fat contract:

Baseball Prospectus: They look at Jones’ stats over the past three seasons as ask “was it a change in his skills, or just one of those fluke seasons?” Due to his age (31) and his somewhat robotic output of 30+ homeruns, 100+ RBI, and a .260 BA, BP views 2007’s lows as “one of those fluke seasons.” I’m sure the crew over at BP may be reconsidering that view as Jones has looked sloppy in physical stature and sluggish on the field as a member of the Dodgers.

Baseball Forecaster: Quite simply: “Lotsa oddness.” Shandler points out that Jones’ second half was more in line with his career batting peripherals. However, his power was still missing. Personally, I think the 51 HR / 45 HR Jones is gone forever, so I can’t really gripe about the lost power source in 2007; but Shandler’s right, once everything else (BA, OBP, SLG, Contact%) improves for the second half, it’s really a head scratcher that the power doesn’t follow suit.

Obviously, Jones has been absolutely putrid in April thus far. Let’s take a look at his OPS, HR, RBI, & Runs Scores in 2008 compared to 2007:

In 2007, Jones had 88 At-Bats in April that resulted in the numbers above. However, Jones’ current pace puts him nowhere near the April numbers of last year (which was recognized as a “bad” year).

This bring us back to my predicament: Am I certifiably insane for picking up this mess of a ball player for my squad? Maybe. But my thinking is that he’s, at most, 1/3 of a starter for my team. I’m not going to be relying on Andruw Jones to carry my team by any means, but (as Ron Shandler reminds us all) once a player demonstrates skills… he owns them. As I said before, I think the 45-125 Andruw Jones is lost and gone forever, but I think that he still possesses enough skill to be the man who Matthew Berry is afraid to stand by. My bold prediction is that Jones will win me at least one fantasy game this year… and for that, this transaction was well worth it.

Clinton & McCain in Memphis on MLK's 40th Anniversary

2008-04-04T12:23:00.008-04:00

Today marks the 40th Anniversary of Martin Luther King Jr’s assassination on the balcony of the Lorraine Motel in Memphis, Tennessee. Commemorating this anniversary, Presidential hopefuls Barack Obama, John McCain, and Hillary Clinton appeared in Fort Wayne, IN and Memphis, TN respectively to pay tribute to Dr. King’s life and the fight for equality that he died trying to achieve.

Earlier in the day, there were a number of different speeches were delivered. First, Senator Obama discussed Dr. King’s dream for equality in all spheres of life. King Jr’s dream to bridge the racial gap was also a dream to bridge the economic gap, as Obama pointed out. He continued, noting that Martin Luther King was in Memphis on the day of his assassination in order to fight for sanitation workers’ rights in the city. Obama, drew parallels to the economic divide that our nation witnesses today and how it is important continue the fight to bridge the gap between the ‘haves’ and the ‘have-nots.’

John McCain did not stand in a cozy gymnasium hundreds of miles away, he stood, under storm clouds and rain, in the very location where Dr. King’s assassination took place. Right off the bat, McCain talked about how he initially voted against having Martin Luther King Jr’s birthday as a national holiday years ago. He said he “made a mistake,” by initially voting this way and was sorry he did. Boo’s reigned down on McCain from the crowd as he struggled to maintain his political smile and composure. He repeated near three times that he “made a mistake,” as voices from the crowd gathered began to die down. One voice was heard through the podium microphone saying, “It’s okay, we all make mistakes.”

I am not a McCain supporter, but it was inspiring to see McCain go to the very place where King Jr was murdered and ask for forgiveness from the masses in attendance today. As the crowd’s booing died down, allowing McCain to finish his speech (miraculously without one of his bad jokes), I can't help but think that he won a few votes with his public apology and decent speech delivered today in Memphis.

At first, I was surprised not to hear from Hillary Clinton this morning. In fact, I was angered that she was not going to show up and speech about the life of Dr. King, especially since she appeared on the Tonight Show with Jay Leno the night before. My anger subsided when she MSNBC, CNN, and Fox News all announced that she would be speaking in Memphis within the hour…

A question then entered my mind: Why is Barack Obama in Fort Wayne, Indiana? His two main competitors, Clinton and McCain, traveled to Memphis to pay homage to Dr. King’s life and sacrifice on a disgusting Memphis day, while he stood in a temperate, dry Fort Wayne gymnasium dozens of miles away. This is, in the least, a questionable decision by the Obama campaign and, in my opinion, could cost him in upcoming polls (not so important) and subsequent primaries (very important).

Again, I can’t say for certain that this will hurt him in the upcoming primaries, but Hillary Clinton, his competition, was on the West Coast less than 24 hours ago. If she can catch a flight across the country to be in Memphis on this important day, the least Obama could’ve done is the same…

President Bush 'Booed' at Nationals Park on Opening Day

2008-03-30T20:55:00.005-04:00

What a difference it was back in 2001. The image of George W. Bush standing on the pitcher’s mound before Game 3 of the 2001 World Series between the New York Yankees and Arizona Diamondbacks in engraved in my mind. The President walked out to the mound and stared into the roaring Yankee Stadium crowd. It was as though he wanted to look each ticket holder in the eye to provide assurance that it would be ‘okay.’ ‘It,’ of course, being the September 11th attacks witnessed by the Stadium crowd, and others, less than two months beforehand.

Todd Greene, the Yankee’s backup Catcher, crouched behind home plate awaiting President Bush’s delivery. Toeing the rubber, the President fired a 2-Seam Fastball to Greene—a perfect strike. Flashbulbs flashed, the crowd roared, and President Bush sauntered off the field waving to all the New Yorkers in attendance.

Today, less than 7 years later, George W. Bush was set to toe the rubber once again. The Washington Nationals, who originally played their home games at Robert F. Kennedy Stadium, hosted the Atlanta Braves in ESPN’s national baseball game. The hype leading up to their match-up was the new Nationals’ ballpark, the optimism each Major League team possesses on Opening Day, and the President throwing out the first pitch.

George W. Bush stood in the tunnel waiting patiently for his introduction across the public address. Donning a bright, red Nationals wind-breaker, Bush heard the intro and made his way up the steps of the Nationals’ dugout. The crowd reaction was something much different than the one he received all those years ago…

Boo’s reined down unmercifully from the upper tiers of Nationals’ Park. Those cheering were completely drowned out, despite attempting to compete with the boo’s throw at the President. Talk about visual and audio aids for the President’s approval rating.

Bush’s body language took the cake, though. After making his way to the field, he quickly shook the hands of three Nationals and quickly made his way to the mound. The boo’s, however did not die down. In fact, it seemed as though the volume of the crowd's booing increased the longer the President remained on the field. There was no staring out into the innumerous fans in attendance tonight. No eye contact providing assurances that it would be ‘okay.’ All those in attendance received was a quick, over-the-shoulder wave.

Just as soon as President Bush toed the rubber, he fired another two-seamer in to Manny Acta; the pitch was high and outside.

After Acta caught the ball, he had to chase after the President, who already began to walk quickly back to the dugout. There was no sauntering to be seen, a brisk walk back is what everyone saw…

It’s just interesting to see how quickly and viciously public opinion has changed over the past six-plus years. If anyone was unaware of the incredible 180-degree about face that a majority of the President's supports took over that time span, they surely were made aware of it tonight.

Why Does Everyone Hate Johnny Damon?

2008-03-30T18:46:00.006-04:00

Why doesn’t anyone love Johnny Damon anymore? In every draft that I’ve participated in (three to date, one more to come next week), there have been a number of outfielders who are over-hyped and therefore over-drafted. This hype machine results in reliable late number-two/early number-three outfielders falling further than usual. One such outfielder is New York Yankee left-fielder, Johnny Damon.

Now, last I checked, Damon is still batting lead-off for the most high-powered offense in the American League. Whether you’re in a Rotisserie League or a Points league, 100 runs scored is 100 runs scored. I’ve yet to see a fantasy squad that can do without production like that. However, in my research this offseason, I’ve seen a number of talking-heads who think that Damon is free-falling from the numbers he has posted in the past. One indicator, for instance, is Damon's failing to reach 100 runs scored, despite batting atop the Yankees’ order.

The Fantasy Baseball Guide: Professional Edition 2008 says of Damon that “when a player relies on his legs as much as someone like Damon, the decline is usually swift and absolute. Yes he’s still stealing bases, but his average is on the decline.” For RotoWire, the presence of Melky Cabrera in center field, combined with the huge contracts of Jason Giambi and Hideki Matsui have turned Damon “into a part-time player.” And for FanBall’s Guide to Winning Fantasy Baseball, it is “tough to expect Damon to reach any digits he hasn’t already achieved.”

To these three periodicals, I say… “Thank You.” I am sure your words of wisdom/warning influenced a majority of the guys I’m competing against (as they should). I, however, have a few problems with the damnation of Damon for 2008:

1. The Guide tears on Damon’s legs despite his 27 stolen bases in an injury plagued 2007. For those of you keeping score, 2007’s 27 SBs were the most for Damon since 2003’s 30 stolen bases for the Red Sox. The Guide also has a problem with Damon’s “declining average,” but a look at the numbers reveals something different. For his major league career, Damon is a .287 hitter. Last year’s .270 BA is, admittedly, nearly twenty-points lower than his career average. However, Damon’s second-half numbers are more in line with his career: .289 average, 15 stolen bases, 57 runs, and a .365 OBP (a thirty-point increase from his first-half numbers!).

2. To their credit, I’m sure RotoWire projected Damon as a part-time player months before Spring Training was even though of (and if they didn’t head’s would roll in the fantasy world). As it stands now, Damon is the Yankees’ starting left fielder and leadoff hitter. The contracts of Giambi and Matsui, as many Yankee fans are already aware, mean nothing. Evidencing this point, Giambi made nearly 20 million dollars as a pinch hitter last year! So, while the huge contracts do exist, it seems that Joe Girardi is going to put the best possible line-up out on the field every night. If money outweighed potential, do you really think Melky “Major-League-Minimum” Cabrera would be starting in center for the bombers?

3. FanBall’s encrypted projection, to me, translates: “Johnny Damon will not put up big fantasy numbers again at this point in his career.” Again, I cite his second half numbers in 2007, when he was actually quasi-healthy, to refute that position. To date, Damon has reported to Spring Training in the great playing shape. His reason: "I've been pretty consistent over my career but ... when you talk about good players in the league, you know, my name hardly comes up and I don't think that's right. I think I really need to go out there and show them." Maybe it’s just me, but nothing is better than a former All-Star with a chip on his shoulder.

Ron Shandler refers to Damon as a “gracefully aging ‘idiot’,” which, in my opinion, is the most accurate description for the Yanks’ lead-off hitter. Not only do I expect 100 runs scored for Damon in 2008, but I would not be surprised at all to see him once again reach double-digit home runs (10-12) and 30 steals (you heard it here first). In fantasy baseball, like all fantasy sports, there’s a constant game of buying low and selling high. Right now, Johnny Damon cannot be further from his peak and is a perfect candidate for buying-low before he redeems himself in 2008 for the Yankees.

Fantasy Countdown: Buy Smoltz, Gallardo; Sell: Kazmir, Liriano; Hold: Harden

2008-03-26T23:22:00.009-04:00

In exactly three days, the most wonderful time of the year is here. Just as the sun sets and the clock strikes 8, I’ll be cracking open a red bull with spreadsheet in hand as the Ice Cold Conference (ICC) holds its fifth fantasy baseball draft. I made a statement to my family earlier this week that they found a little shocking, but, nonetheless, I feel it’s true: I look forward to this draft more than I ever looked forward to Christmas as a child. What brought me to this conclusion is the phrase, “Happier than a kid on Christmas morning!” I just feel that that metaphor doesn’t get the job done when anticipating the ICC's draft. For now, while I am at maximum capacity for fantasy baseball knowledge, I want to pick up where I left off two weeks ago with more players who I really love/hate for 2008. Focusing specifically on potential injury sleepers that you may want to target/avoid.

The first pool of players is the walking wounded. They came into spring training with a twinkle in their eyes and an extra kick in their step, but now find owners shying away from drafting them. First, Scott Kazmir has experienced the most trouble this spring. It all began during a February 26th warm-up session when Kazmir felt his elbow get “jammed up.” Isn’t this course identical to that taken by Francisco Liriano and Rich Harden before their Tommy John surgeries? Scouts have never liked the combination of Kazmir’s small frame and arm torque for this particular reason. Kazmir, however, eventually worked his way back to throwing live batting practice on March 13th, only before the Rays shut him down again and ruled out for at least the first week of the season. For me, this is scary because, though I love Kazmir’s potential, elbow issues are not something to mess arounf with. I know that many owners are going to be looking to buy low or draft low on Kazmir this year, but I would definitely stay away from him in this condition. Elbows, especially of the throwing variety, are something that I leave to Dr. James Andrews… and off my team.

From the bad, we look at something a little more optimal. Did everyone see Rich Harden’s debut against the Red Sox today? How filthy did he look? Harden is a starter that really intrigued me the entire off-season. In early February, Harden described his own physical condition as “tremendous,” and I think that’s what really did it for me. Since that day, I’ve been monitoring his starts and, more importantly, how his right shoulder and elbow feel after each outing. Today, however, Harden let the cat out of the bag as he held the Red Sox to one run over six innings with nine strikeouts. Nine K’s against a line-up as patient as the Red Sox? That's absurd! You know he was dealing this morning with a stat line like that. I wouldn’t get out of control when eying a guy like Harden in your draft though. He’s still and injury risk, but he would make a good (with the potential to be great) 5th or 6th pitcher for your fantasy rotation.

Francisco Liriano pitched well all spring, but was only rewarded with a trip to Triple-A. Not fair? I know, but he should be back in the Twins rotation by early-mid April and ready to rock-and-roll soon thereafter. The precaution with Liriano stems from the fact that his fastball is not quite as fast as it should be. Earlier this month his fastball clocked between 88 and 90 mph, once touching 93. This is a far cry from the consistent 95 that Liriano was throwing two years ago. For any owners entering a draft, I think considering this decrease in velocity is important when filling out your starting rotation. While Liriano is an attractive name and option for your team, you should probably sit back and let him fall a few rounds before pouncing. What’s the worse that can happen—you nab a few solid veteran arms and let someone else take the risk? I say if you can get him as a reserve then take him. Anything above that though may be too risky now.

Did anyone else feel sick when you heard about the cartilage damage in Yovani Gallardo’s knee? Yeah, me too. I considered this young stud the current ace of the Brew Crew. He was just flat-out dominating last year and I couldn’t imagine letting anyone else in my league have him in 2008. However, God intervened, resulting in the shutting down of Gallardo on February 17th. Now, more than a month later, Gallardo participated in live game action today (March 26th), pitching three innings, striking out two, and allowing no runs. Gallardo probably won’t build up his endurance enough to start his season with the big club in Milwaukee, but he also probably won’t start the season on the DL. Gallardo’s potential, which in my opinion is higher than both Harden and Liriano, still makes him a legit pick for your pitching staff. Just please, please, please don’t make him the first pitcher you take. That would be stupid, and stupid people don’t read my blog.

Now enough with these young guns, let’s get to the elder statesman of the injury-sleeper stable: John Smoltz. This past week, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution declared Smoltz as a “likely” candidate to start the season on the DL. Smoltz however said the discomfort in his shoulder would not have stopped him from making a regular season start. Who’s telling the truth and who’s lying? Well there appears to be a middle ground here. As the Journal-Constitution said, Smoltz probably will start the season on the DL, however, the DL is retroactive to April 6th. That said you’re only going to be missing out on the cagey vet for one start is the shoulder ailment is not as bad as he says it is. Personally, I’ve always liked Smoltz and his ability to defy nature. I don’t like him enough to be my ace, but he fits in nicely as a number three or four in a mixed-league fantasy rotation. I wouldn’t let these shoulder woes scare you away from the Braves’ ace.

Why Fadds is Such a Ryan Braun & Troy Tulowitzki Hater

2008-03-07T21:31:00.012-05:00

Enough political talk for now, I have a pressing issue for discussion. Tomorrow is my first Fantasy Baseball draft of 2008 and I have a few tidbits for discussion before drafting my team. First, a bit about the league: it is a 20 (yes that’s right 20) team head-to-head points league. Only four teams make the play-offs so it is going to be ridiculously important to get off to a hot start once the season begins. Normally, I would never think of drafting a league this early, but there are other commitments throughout our staff and this was one of the few weekends in March that we could all meet. The team owners are all employees of WFUV-FM’s Sports department, so it should be competitive and intense for the entire season.

The semantics of the league is not reason for this post. There have been a few thoughts bouncing around my head during my draft prep. Looking into my projected first-round player pool, Ryan Braun bothers me. I don’t know if all the fantasy experts were smoking crack when predicting this kid as a .330-40-120 bat in Milwaukee’s line-up, but I just don’t see it. In fact, I could just as easily see a sophomore slump before that line. I mean… .330… seriously? I know he was killing it last year, but let’s give the pitchers and coaches in the NL a little more credit to figure this kid out. Don’t confuse my skepticism with statistical fact, because the Slugging % over the course of Braun’s career shows that he can keep it up (he had a hiccup in 2006, but other than that it was great). I just wouldn’t spend a first round pick on him. In my 20-team league, maybe at the end of the first I would consider it. However, it would be a definite struggle between Braun’s upside and the robotic consistency of guys like Carlos Beltran, Carlos Lee, and Lance Berkman (again, 20-teams… none of those three should be taken in the first round of any 10- or 12-team draft).

A friend asked me if I would consider Troy Tulowitzki as my starting shortstop in this league. My answer, in short, was no. Currently, I have him ranked as a late second round pick in this league. That’s absurd. Unless I get A-Rod with the first overall pick and have to wait until 40th overall, I can’t see taking Tulowitzki in the second round. Other options that I think are more attractive than Tulo in a points league come in later rounds. Carlos Guillen (ranked mid-third rounder) and Rafael Furcal (mid-fifth rounder) provide the opportunity for average and speed respectively. Though Tulowitzki has the potential for 25 home runs in 2008, Guillen is an automatic for average and runs scored in that beastie Detroit line-up. Furcal, allegedly healthy for ’08, will have Joe Torre liberally giving him the green light on the base paths and a fat contract to play for. I know, it’s easy for me to offer these options without saying who I would take in the second round. Personally, if it were a late pick, I would look to take a stud-starting pitcher. Erik Bedard and C.C. Sabathia are ranked as early-third round picks, but you wouldn’t be crazy to jump at either of them in the late second.

Final thought for this installment: Has anyone else noticed how many 3B options there are in ’08? It’s crazy. Obviously, David Wright, Alex Rodriguez, and Miggy Cabrera are at the head of the class, but as far as sleepers go, most of the guys who I’ve been eyeing are third basemen. Before idiotically getting into a car accident last week, Hank Blalock was on my radar. I never bought into his hype in previous years, but I feel like this year he’s valued at just the right position: a late round sleeper / utility player.

If the White Sox would trade Joe Crede already, Josh Fields would be a good option at the hot corner also. As it stands now, both are White Sox, and Fields, as a result, is undervalued. Everyone talk about Ryan Braun, but this kid hit 23 dingers in 200 less at-bats. Also, let's not forget the deceptive speed on the base paths he showed in the minors. Throw in dual eligibility at 3B and OF and you have yourself a nice little option in the late rounds of any draft. If your draft is coming up soon snatch this guy up and wait for the ChiSox to ship Crede out to the Giants or something…

I was going to initially list Eric Chavez in this list, but… no.

I don’t really dig on the whole Mark Reynolds hype, but many other writers do. If, you’re one of them, please try and convince me, because 130 punch-outs in someone’s rookie season just screams Jose Hernandez, and I don’t want any of that.

Edwin Encarnacion, again, rears his ugly head. Don’t we do through this every year with him? Is 2008 finally going to be the year he busts it out in Cincinnati? I don’t think so, but that’s only because he’s toyed with my emotions one too many tomes before.

Now, here’s one that you may think I am crazy for: Aubrey Huff. Before you “x” out this window let me try and talk my way out of this corner. This will be Huff’s second season in Baltimore and there’s no more Miguel Tejada. That is a good thing. Tejada, according to some, was not exactly the best teammate and left a clean-up spot vacant for Huff to step right in to. Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis will be on the base paths frequently for Huff, who will see more pitches coming from the stretch. Also, what’s so bad about spending you last pick on ol’ Aubrey Huff? Yeah, that’s what I thought.

I’ll come back some analysis of the draft once it’s complete. Anyone who wants results from this league’s draft, shoot me an e-mail and I’ll see what I can do about sending them to you.

SNP: Saturday Night Politics

2008-02-24T01:51:00.010-05:00

Tonight, the first Saturday Night Live since the conclusion of the Writers' Guild strike aired on NBC. As a twenty-something, the low expectations I hold for the program clash with the high standards my parents once possessed. Nonetheless, I tuned in because, well, it was a choice between that and Godzilla (yes, the one with Matthew Broderick) on ABC Family channel.

Upon changing the channel to NBC, I immediately recognized the opening set as the stage of Texas' Democratic debate between Hilary Clinton and Barack Obama that took place two nights ago. The role of Barack Obama, was played by Fred Armisen, who, at first glance, looked the part. The salt-and-peppered hair, slim build, and the slightly protruding ears all contributed to a living, breathing Obama caricature. However, one component of Armisen's Obama bothered me, and that was the omnipresent frown that he wore as he spoke and grunted in response to questions directed at him from the "CNN panel."

Now, Barack Obama is loved by the camera, yet this one characteristic was ignored by the SNL directors, producers, and, most noticeably, Armisen. In fact, not a single smile was cracked throughout the entire introduction to Saturday Night Live. This certainly isn't the Barack Obama that Democrats, Independents and (even a few) Republicans have come to know and love.

In fact, not that this was the sole decision of Armisen, but he displayed Obama as a quasi-awkward character. This was blatantly displayed as he reached to grab the rested hand of Hilary Clinton, played by Amy Poehler. During the awkward exchange, Poehler ripped her hands away from that of Armisen in disgust. The scene drew few laughs and, personally, made be wonder what politician the writers and producers of SNL had been watching over the past few months, because this depiction certainly was not Barack Obama (despite Armisen providing a really good caricature).

Later, during "Weekend Update" with Poehler and Seth Meyers, a surprise guest appeared on set. Governor Mike Huckabee appeared to Meyers' left, introduced as an unofficially official former Presidential Candidate. Huckabee, once again providing the great humor that debate viewers have come to expect, displayed charm and likability during the bit. In a micro-second of seriousness, Huckabee told his supporters and the American people that he would bow out "gracefully" when he "knew it was time." Meyers hinted that the time may be near as he was "mathematically eliminated" from Presidential contention.

Overall, the first episode of SNL was lackluster, but provided a decent look into the political atmosphere that the show had missed out on for so long. In the end, Mike Huckabee saved a sinking ship during the "Weekend Update" segment with his wit and charm. On the bright-side, at least the show can go nowhere but up in subsequent weeks.

Super Delegate Uncertaintly Is Unacceptable!

2008-02-21T23:14:00.000-05:00

I have avoided this one for a while, but this morning I bit down hard and swallowed. No, it was not my morning bowl of oatmeal. It was not even the lukewarm coffee I drank in haste as I ran out the door. It was something far worse…

CNN’s American Morning featured an interview of Texas Democratic Party Chairman Boyd Richie and, his wife, Betty conducted by John Roberts. Now, this was not a story about the influence of politics on 40-plus year marriage, it was not even a focus on the political status of Texas as the state prepares for the March 4, 2008 Democratic Primary. No. This interview focused on the fact that both Boyd and Betty were Super Delegates. That’s right BOTH of them.

Boyd, full of the same southern charm that convinced many that it would good idea to elect a cowboy into office in 2000, assured John Roberts that his wife is a “independent thinker” and that she wouldn’t be influenced by his decision. Normally, I would give a nod of approval. That’s fantastic of ol’ Boyd, recognizing that his wife could make decisions for herself. However, Betty Richie was NOT making a decision for herself… she was making a decision for thousands!

Last week on MSNBC, Dan Abrams delivered a devastating statistic on his program. Abrams relayed the total number of Democrats who voted in the subsequent primaries, next he provided the number of Super Delegates allocated across America. Now, here’s the devastating part, his conclusion was that 1 Super Delegate represented roughly 9,439 Democrats. Excuse me for saying so… but that’s disgusting. Did we not just visit this back in 2000? The disenfranchisement of voters in Florida during the general election only eight years ago and now we are seeing it again!

Boyd, charmer that he is, told John Roberts that he would go whichever way the wind blew him. That is to say, that he would vote for the Presidential Candidate who sported the most delegates before Super Delegates cast their votes. Here’s hoping that Boyd’s democratic approach to his Super Delegate vote rubs off on his wife. Betty’s answer of “I don’t know who I am going to vote for yet,” doesn’t fly right now. Democrats deserve more than this. The nearly ten-thousand Americans represented by Betty Richie are receiving the message, “Why Bother?”

2007-08, up until this point, can be characterized as a year that voters were inspired to come out and vote. Democrats have a black man and a woman running for the party’s Presidential nomination. Change much? Unfortunately, this aforementioned newfound inspiration for change is now showing signs of a vast many undermined by the privileged few.

Somewhere, Thomas Jefferson must be smiling…

Chants of "U-S-A" Capture Spirit of Obama Campaign

2008-02-06T01:11:00.000-05:00

Tonight during its coverage of Super Tuesday’s almost-national primaries, CNN provided a brilliant metaphorical statement to its viewers. During Arizona Senator John McCain’s address to his supporters from Arizona, Illinois Senator Barack Obama began to approach the stage of his campaign headquarters where he would address his own supporters. CNN found itself in a pickle. Should it stick with the Republican powerhouse that has been John McCain, or would they preempt the boasting senator in favor of Obama?

The tension was building as CNN provided an essential split screen. On the right (ironically—except not at all) McCain rambled on about how his mother’s birthday was in two days, how she was traveling on the campaign trail with him, and how, though he liked being the underdog, winning all the time wasn’t bad either. Though all his comments were undoubtedly pressing, CNN cut McCain short, and at the crescendo of his speech to boot, in favor of what would be another stirring speech by Barack Obama.

Senator Obama’s speeches, at this point, are a selling point of primaries, debates, and public appearances. CNN proved that tonight when they axed John McCain’s own speech in favor of that of Obama. Tonight, in my opinion, Obama did not disappoint. However, there was a different message sent by Obama tonight. In fact, Senator Obama issued a plea to voters not completely sold on his position for change.

This tangent was necessary, as Obama no longer talked about his positions against those of Hillary Clinton, but rather the Democratic candidate against the Republican candidate. He asked the crowd of supporters if they wanted to hear a Presidential debate over who had more experience in Washington, or over who is most likely to change Washington? He continued that they all had a choice between a Democrat whose campaign has received more lobbyist donations than any Republican’s has, and a choice for a Democrat who has accepted no lobbyist donations. Considering the War in Iraq, Obama assured that Republicans do not have a foot to stand on when debating against him.

Most importantly, Barack Obama lumped Hilary Clinton in with all the Republican candidates as being “linked to the past.” Rather than “look to the past,” Obama propositioned his supporters, “allow me to be a President that looks to the future.”

Despite not winning a majority of the state in tonight’s nation-wide primary, Obama’s call to the indifferent was a moving one. So moving in fact, that the chants of “O-bam-a, O-bam-a,” sounding throughout the beginning of his speech were replaced with chants of “U-S-A, U-S-A!”

Is Barack Obama the real candidate for change? Well, like all things, that is still up for debate. However, the emotion and inspiration that emulates from each of his speeches and appearances are something that Republicans, Democrats, and Independents alike respect and are drawn to. I feel I can say, without a doubt, that a speech given by Hillary Clinton (even on her best day) could never achieve that result.

McCain's Misquotes and "Dirty" Tactics Lead to Ambiguity

2008-01-30T22:22:00.000-05:00

Tonight’s four candidate Republican debate ended up being a two-man show. In their best attempt at replicating the heated exchange between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in the last Democratic debate, John McCain and Mitt Romney continuously spoke over one another, exchanged blows, and refused to let Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul get a word in during the hour and a half broadcast.

Mitt Romney, normally robotic in his responses during such debates, showed, dare I say, emotion when John McCain offered a dated quote implicating Romney as a proponent for a timetable for leaving Iraq. “What does that even mean?” Romney repeated several times over McCain, as if in a last ditch effort to stop the negative slander that was being fed into the public before his very eyes. The exchange between McCain and Romney over this “Iraq Timetable,” in a sense, did not completely bury Romney.

Before today, Senator McCain was framed as a man who was respected by all of his opponents in the race for the GOP Presidental nomination. This was further enforced earlier this afternoon when former opponent Rudy Guliani pledged his support to McCain. The outflow of support for McCain did not stop with Guilani however, CNN’s Anderson Cooper reported, just before the beginning of the debate, that California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger was due to pledge his support for John McCain as early as tomorrow afternoon.

It really makes be wonder why someone like McCain, who has so much going for him at this point during primary season, would stoop to using “dirty” tactics against Romney. It was weird for me to feel bad for Mitt Romney. Personally, I think that he is the coldest candidate on both Democratic and Republican cards. Not to mention that the New York Times hit the nail on the head when its poll named Romney the least likable Presidential candidate. However, after McCain’s attempt to use “dirty” tactics against Romney, viewers cannot help but feel the same ambiguity that I spoke about earlier. By the end of the debate... were they really feeling bad for Mitt Romney? The tactics and misquotes that littered McCain's debate tonight did more harm than help for the Arizona senator.

Will Rudy and "The Governator’s" endorsement of John McCain overshadow his attempts to burry Romney with dated quotations and misquoted statistics? Only time will tell. At the close of tonight's GOP debate, despite no indication of a clear-cut winner, it was blatantly apparent that John McCain was a loser.