Carlos Quentin: Major League Disappointment (Continues...)

Here's the latest from last year's MVP candidate via The Sports Xchange:

"We're aware that if a relapse happens where the tendon ruptures even more, well, that's major," Quentin said. "That's something that's going to take longer, maybe even the rest of the season. So we're thinking that if that tendon goes, that's a two- to four-month recovery. Where we're at in the baseball season, two-to-four really doesn't work out as far as being able to play again this season. That's more of the concern right now."

Wow.  Personally, I am a horribly disappointed Carlos Quentin owner in a 12-team keeper league.  When I saw this news, my initial impulse was to throw something... hard.  Or, better yet, punch something... hard.  That impulse, however, reminded me of last season... when Carlos Quentin broke his hand in frustration...

The combination of two thoughts (the first being how much I hate Carlos Quentin and the second being my concern for my own hand) prevented me from taking any physical action.  The above is the latest in an on-going injury plagued career for such a promising young major leaguer, in Carlos Quentin.

Nearly two years ago, when I skimmed the pages of the 2008 Baseball Prospectus, I almost immediately stumbled upon the name "Carlos Quentin."  Why?  Well, he played for the D-Backs at the time and BP is displayed in alphabetical order.  In Quentin's bio, the guys and gals at BP noted that he had a world of talent, but was too injury prone.  The projected meager stats, and Carlos Quentin made them look silly....

...or did he?

If anything, 2009 has shown what an aberration 2008's MVP campaign was for Carlos Quentin.  Furthermore, it displayed how scarily accurate Baseball Prospectus can be.

So... fellow Carlos Quentin owners, what's our next step.  Well, for anyone who's late to get on the bandwagon, Quentin is almost "drop-able."  Yes.  It pains me to say so, but if you're in a single-season (non-keeper) league, Quentin's foot ailments and news of *almost* shutting it down puts him in the red-zone.  Here's who we all should be looking at as potential replacements:

Cody Ross: In most leagues, this guy's available.  He started off like a bat out of hell but really, really, REALLY cooled off for most of April and the early parts of May.  Over the last 5 weeks, however, Ross has averaged nearly 26 points/week in points based leagues.  Not to mention his OPS of nearly .900 during his last 15 games.  While other studs like Hanley Ramirez take over the spotlight in Miami, look for a hard-nosed break-out player in Ross to help ease the loss of someone as spectacular as Carlos Quentin.

Juan Rivera: I remember young Juan fumbling around the Yankees' outfield in the early part of the new millennium.  While his average and arm left something to be desired, he still had that little "Ricky Ledee" in him that all Yankee fans wanted to grasp on to as a token of their championship years.  Well... Ricky Ledee's probably warming someone's bench right now (maybe in the independent leagues?  It's not important enough to look up, to be blunt) and Juan Rivera is doing his best impersonation of Bernie Williams (yes, THAT Yankee favorite of the Dynasty years).  Over his last 15 games, Rivera's OPS is in vintage Big Papi territory at nearly 1.000.  And he's averaging around 23 points/week over his last five weeks.  Kudos to ESPN's Matthew Berry for having such a man crush on this guy that he stuck out in my mind.  Rivera's dominance probably will not last... but it doesn't mean you can't ride him into the ground, Dusty Baker-style!

Nolan Reimold: Yes, one of the many man-crushes of my blog, Reimold has done nothing but impress since his call to the bigs.  The Greenville, PA product has averaged 20/week in points based leagues--with the potential to do a bit more.   It's hard to put all your faith in a rookie, but Reimold's OPS of .951 over his last 15 games is enough to warrant consideration in most leagues.  Hold him as a 3rd - 4th OF for your team.  This guy has the make up of a 2nd half sleeper and may be worth it on your team's turn-around run.

Week 11 Update: Nick Blackburn is Actually "Good"

I was reading an article at Sportsfrog.com a little while ago... it demanded that I trade Nick Blackburn.  Bronto, the author, suggests:

"Blackburn has benefited from a better-than average BABIP, which stood at .278 before today’s game compared to last season’s .308 BABIP. And he’s walking more hitters too. After walking just 39 last year, Blackburn has walked 25 people this season after walking just 39 in 2008."

Yes, this is all 100% accurate.  However, with this all know, do we think anyone would be willing to deal anything for Blackburn and if so, what?  Personally, I don't think you're going to pull the wool over anyone's eyes if you're in a competitive league.  Blackburn is what he is: a nice option in mixed-leagues and a really, really good option in AL-Only leagues.

...and though everything Bronto said was accurate, I'm not ready to sell on Blackburn yet.  I look at his GB-rate and think there may be something more here.  The Twins have historically preached speed and defense to their position players.  This is blatantly obvious in the fact that the Twins lead baseball with only 24 Errors allows all year!  It's mind-boggling, but it's true.  With that all said, why not take a chance on a kid who's decreasing his HR/FB rate and pitching to a better-than-50% GB rate?

My point is that Blackburn's BABIP is so low because his GB Rate is so steady and his HR/FB is severely decreased from what it was last year.  As Brian Pietrzak suggests in his "Inside Nick Blackburn's last five starts," Blackburn's reputation is a bit misleading:

"Blackburn has garnered a reputation as a "fly-ball pitcher," especially from Twins' announcers Bert Blyleven and Dick Bremer. However, Blackburn's ground ball to fly ball ratio is 1.21 through his first 13 starts of 2009. As a contrast, Carlos Silva was often considered by many, including Blyleven and Bremer, to be a "sinkerball pitcher" who induced many ground balls. In his final season as a Twin in 2007, Silva had a ground ball to fly ball ratio of 1.41."

In the end, it comes down to whether or not YOU like Blackburn.  You can find all the stats in the world to support either side as Bronto and Pietrzak deliver above.  For me, I say stick with him.  Let him ride your bench next week and throw him in for two-starts in Week 13.  Unless the Twins trade their top-flight defenders, I'd expect more of the same.

Weekend Update: Ryan Doumit, Scott Kazmir, Cubs' Bats

For those of us who've been waiting to vulture Ryan Doumit from the waiver-wire... you may want to wait a little longer.  A few minutes ago, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette gave an update on Doumit's rehab:

"He's been cleared to resume baseball activities, which means throwing and swinging a bat. Yesterday was the first time he threw soft toss from 45 feet and also took some dry swings. He did it again this morning. 'It's a progression and I'm going to ease into it,' Doumit said, who's beginning a two-week throwing/batting program. 'I'll do that for a couple of weeks and we'll see where it goes from there.'"

Essentially, he's still a while away from coming back.  Throwing from 45 feet is typically the first of three legs a catcher has to run through to prove his health... not even including working your swing back into... swing.  That all said, Doumit's return shouldn't be for at least another 3 weeks.  The good news is that you'll start getting more regular updates about his condition and training now that he's starting a regular program.

The St. Petersburg Times also provided a brief update on Rays' starter, Scott Kazmir, who told reporters he would be starting up a rehab campaign this coming week:

"[Joe] Maddon confirmed LHP Scott Kazmir will start for Class-A Charlotte Wednesday."

Short and to-the-point.  Nothing that I could find about Kazmir's shoulder or side-sessions, but I'm sure most of that will be available after his first go-round on Wednesday afternoon.  Check back at the above link for more on Wednesday night or Thursday morning (as usual, I'm sure Rotoworld or MLB Trade Rumors will also have something on this).

Finally, the Chicago Tribune reports the Chicago Cubs fired team hitting coach, Gerald Perry.  Normally, this is a purely cosmetic move, but Perry coached one of the most feared offenses in baseball not even two-years ago.  So, needless to say, he'll resurface somewhere within the next season or two.  Jim Hendry on the firing:

"Von [Joshua] has had a lot of success with our guys on the way up. We're really, really struggling offensively for reasons way beyond Aramis (Ramirez) being gone. Every day we have guys in the lineup who have played in the All-Star game. For whatever reason, they're just not performing anywhere close to the level they've performed through their careers."

That last part is huge.  Owners of Alfonso Soriano, Derrick Lee, and Milton Bradley may start to see some signs of life soon.  Though, Soriano has been struggling, now might be the time to try and make  a trade for the perennial fantasy superstar.  He and the rest of the Cubbies' bats have the potential for a huge second half.