Fantasy Baseball Prep: Shortstop

Shortstop is an interesting position this year. Last year was the first time that I could ever remember three shortstops being hands-down 1st round picks, including the A-Rod, Derek Jeter, and Nomar Garciaparra days of yesteryear. The three aforementioned shortstops, Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and Jimmy Rollins are still projected as early picks, but Jimmy Rollins’ “welcome back to Earth” 2008 has knocked him out of the 1st and, probably, second rounds of most fantasy drafts.

Before taking off, remember to take a look at my introductory post for a chart of the breakdown of points in this league. From there you can find links to my previous 2009 looks at catcher, first base, second base, and third base.

Taking a look at our points-per-opportunity statistic as an indicator of Fantasy Baseball Slugging-Percentage, we find our “average” shortstop to be Rafael Furcal (2.21 pts/opp.). Though in 2008, Furcal started off like a man possessed, a back injury (originally diagnosed as a trip to the 15-day DL) cost him a majority of his season. I’m not surprised to see Furcal sitting in this spot when looking at his declining home run and stolen base totals. Combine that with his injury history and new, unmotivating, fat contract and I’m ready to put Raffy on my “Buyer Beware” list in 2009.

Flanking Furcal as “average” slugging shortstops are Troy Tulowitzki (2.26) and Bobby Crosby (2.17). Tulowitzki is an interesting case for a couple reasons. Last year, as we all know, Tulo’s quad and lacerations forced him out for a majority of the first half of the season. He was hyped to be the next 25 HR shortstop and delivered nothing but mediocrity when he DID play. However, let’s look beyond the sour taste Tulo left in our mouths in 2008 and look back to much happier times in 2007. Anyone who selected the Rockies then-rookie in the later rounds of the draft noticed the youngster’s rather slow start. After the All-Star break, however, something changed in Tulo, as he played more like a cagey vet than a bumbling rookie.

Fast-forward to 2008, and we saw the same approach from Tulowitzki, a slow start once he received regular playing time. I’m not going to go ahead and crown this guy the next Eric Chavez, but I think he’s slow start may be more to blame for his less-than-desirable numbers once he became healthy in 2008.

Now, enough about Tulo and Slugging-%, let’s move on to points-per-plate-appearance, where Maicer Izturis’ .73 pts/pa marks the middle-ground. This is awesome for fantasy owners for a few reasons: (1) this is an indication of the large number of “above-average” shortstops in 2009, (2) shortstop is a position you can sit on, and (3) the difference between the highest pts/pa (Hanley Ramirez’s .98) and the average can be easily made up with another position (say, drafting a more productive OF over a SS early in the draft, thereby ignoring the position scarcity approach).

Topping our list are the Big-Three (or big two-and-a-half) of Hanley Ramirez (.98), Jose Reyes (.90), and Jimmy Rollins (.85), but there’s a name placing in the Top-5 that sticks out like a sore thumb… and no it’s not Troy Tulowitzki (.80).

Though I didn’t mention it before, the Angels’ Brandon Wood is as close as one can get to putting Richie Sexson circa 2003 at shortstop. He’s big, strong, and strikes out a ton. He topped the list of shortstops in the pts/opp. category and places 4th on the pts/pa statistic.

So what does this all mean?

It means that Wood, despite his lack of playing time, could be a deep sleeper for 2009. The Angels have a few players blocking the way for Wood with Chone Figgins, Maicer Izturis, and Erick Aybar. Last year, the injury bug took a severe bite out of the left-side of the Halo’s infield and forced the call-up of players like Brandon Wood.

Bill James doesn’t project anything astronomical (23 HRs, 26 doubles, 10 SBs), but he does project these numbers in about 200 fewer at-bats than a guy like JJ Hardy, who offers a similar output.

Now, I’m not saying to definitely draft a guy like Brandon Wood… but I am giving you an early warning: pay close attention to the Angels’ third base and shortstop situations going into spring training. Remember, this is a team that lost out on Mark Teixeira during the off-season… they’re going to need to do something to replace that offensive output. I have a feeling that, in this instance, “something” is going to be giving players like Brandon Wood and Mike Napoli a lot more ABs than they’re typically accustomed to.

Why Fadds is Such a Ryan Braun & Troy Tulowitzki Hater

Enough political talk for now, I have a pressing issue for discussion. Tomorrow is my first Fantasy Baseball draft of 2008 and I have a few tidbits for discussion before drafting my team. First, a bit about the league: it is a 20 (yes that’s right 20) team head-to-head points league. Only four teams make the play-offs so it is going to be ridiculously important to get off to a hot start once the season begins. Normally, I would never think of drafting a league this early, but there are other commitments throughout our staff and this was one of the few weekends in March that we could all meet. The team owners are all employees of WFUV-FM’s Sports department, so it should be competitive and intense for the entire season.

The semantics of the league is not reason for this post. There have been a few thoughts bouncing around my head during my draft prep. Looking into my projected first-round player pool, Ryan Braun bothers me. I don’t know if all the fantasy experts were smoking crack when predicting this kid as a .330-40-120 bat in Milwaukee’s line-up, but I just don’t see it. In fact, I could just as easily see a sophomore slump before that line. I mean… .330… seriously? I know he was killing it last year, but let’s give the pitchers and coaches in the NL a little more credit to figure this kid out. Don’t confuse my skepticism with statistical fact, because the Slugging % over the course of Braun’s career shows that he can keep it up (he had a hiccup in 2006, but other than that it was great). I just wouldn’t spend a first round pick on him. In my 20-team league, maybe at the end of the first I would consider it. However, it would be a definite struggle between Braun’s upside and the robotic consistency of guys like Carlos Beltran, Carlos Lee, and Lance Berkman (again, 20-teams… none of those three should be taken in the first round of any 10- or 12-team draft).

A friend asked me if I would consider Troy Tulowitzki as my starting shortstop in this league. My answer, in short, was no. Currently, I have him ranked as a late second round pick in this league. That’s absurd. Unless I get A-Rod with the first overall pick and have to wait until 40th overall, I can’t see taking Tulowitzki in the second round. Other options that I think are more attractive than Tulo in a points league come in later rounds. Carlos Guillen (ranked mid-third rounder) and Rafael Furcal (mid-fifth rounder) provide the opportunity for average and speed respectively. Though Tulowitzki has the potential for 25 home runs in 2008, Guillen is an automatic for average and runs scored in that beastie Detroit line-up. Furcal, allegedly healthy for ’08, will have Joe Torre liberally giving him the green light on the base paths and a fat contract to play for. I know, it’s easy for me to offer these options without saying who I would take in the second round. Personally, if it were a late pick, I would look to take a stud-starting pitcher. Erik Bedard and C.C. Sabathia are ranked as early-third round picks, but you wouldn’t be crazy to jump at either of them in the late second.

Final thought for this installment: Has anyone else noticed how many 3B options there are in ’08? It’s crazy. Obviously, David Wright, Alex Rodriguez, and Miggy Cabrera are at the head of the class, but as far as sleepers go, most of the guys who I’ve been eyeing are third basemen. Before idiotically getting into a car accident last week, Hank Blalock was on my radar. I never bought into his hype in previous years, but I feel like this year he’s valued at just the right position: a late round sleeper / utility player.

If the White Sox would trade Joe Crede already, Josh Fields would be a good option at the hot corner also. As it stands now, both are White Sox, and Fields, as a result, is undervalued. Everyone talk about Ryan Braun, but this kid hit 23 dingers in 200 less at-bats. Also, let's not forget the deceptive speed on the base paths he showed in the minors. Throw in dual eligibility at 3B and OF and you have yourself a nice little option in the late rounds of any draft. If your draft is coming up soon snatch this guy up and wait for the ChiSox to ship Crede out to the Giants or something…

I was going to initially list Eric Chavez in this list, but… no.

I don’t really dig on the whole Mark Reynolds hype, but many other writers do. If, you’re one of them, please try and convince me, because 130 punch-outs in someone’s rookie season just screams Jose Hernandez, and I don’t want any of that.

Edwin Encarnacion, again, rears his ugly head. Don’t we do through this every year with him? Is 2008 finally going to be the year he busts it out in Cincinnati? I don’t think so, but that’s only because he’s toyed with my emotions one too many tomes before.

Now, here’s one that you may think I am crazy for: Aubrey Huff. Before you “x” out this window let me try and talk my way out of this corner. This will be Huff’s second season in Baltimore and there’s no more Miguel Tejada. That is a good thing. Tejada, according to some, was not exactly the best teammate and left a clean-up spot vacant for Huff to step right in to. Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis will be on the base paths frequently for Huff, who will see more pitches coming from the stretch. Also, what’s so bad about spending you last pick on ol’ Aubrey Huff? Yeah, that’s what I thought.

I’ll come back some analysis of the draft once it’s complete. Anyone who wants results from this league’s draft, shoot me an e-mail and I’ll see what I can do about sending them to you.