McGowan/Harang Update

Apparently my vent session gave mercy to the respective rotator cuff and forearm of Dustin McGowan and Aaron Harang.

For more on their injury updates:

McGowan Will Avoid Surgery

Reds Receive Good News on Harang

Essentially, Harang'll be back before McGowan.  He'll probably spend a stint on the DL and get his act together for a few rehab starts.  Maybe this will give Dusty Baker time to think twice before starting his ace on two days rest... now the Reds faithful can take a minute and stop having nightmares about Wood, Prior, and Harang.

McGowan, on the other hand, is going to get a second opinion.  I don't know if I'd cut him loose if he's just going to do a DL stint.  Stay tuned to the blogosphere over the next few days for more updates on McGowan's status.

Dustin McGowan & (maybe) Aaron Harang: The Straw(s) that Broke the Camel's Back

Seriously, I don't know what's worse this year: the maple bat epidemic or the injured pitcher epidemic.  Think about it... unless you've had incredible luck this season, I'm sure you've lost at least one pitcher for an extended period due to injury.  Are they not drinking their milk, taking their vitamins, and saying their prayers every night?

Today, news from Blue Jays camp informed the public that Dustin McGowan was the latest "star" pitcher to hit the DL.  McGowan's diagnosis: an apparent rotator cuff tear.  So that means at least 4 weeks away from baseball activity.  Sure, my only knowledge of rotator cuffs comes by way of my love-hate relationship with Chad Pennington (two years in a row)... but I have a feeling it'll be a bit more than just 4 weeks.  In fact, I think it's time for every McGowan owner to cut loose and pick up Anibal Sanchez while he's still available in your league.  Normally, I'd deliver a few stats about Sanchez... but I'm on the edge right now.  My only advice is this:  he's a more valuable 2nd half starter than McGowan; cut away.

I know that I can't be the only one who's in complete amazement (which is another way to say I'm beginning to get a little pissed) about this starting pitcher famine.  Think about it... the news about McGowan comes the same week that Erik Bedard landed on the DL for what seems like the 70th time this season.

And now... I see message boards and blogs exploding over this.  Don't cue the gloomy "dun-dun-DUN," just yet... let's remember there have been similar scares this year (note Jorge Posada, Victor Martinez, etc) that haven't completely killed fantasy baseball squads around the world (and by "completely killed... around the world" I mean, my team survived...).  Could you imagine Harang being lost from the Reds for the year?  He'd be added to an already crowded list (including Yovanni Gallardo, Jeremy Bonderman, John Smoltz, Chien-Ming Wang and, now, Dustin McGowan) of season-altering starters who are lost for a looooooong time-- if not the season!

So where does this leave us?  Well, that rant was somewhat therapeutic for me... but I'm not going to leave you to just commiserate with me.  Instead, I'll attempt to throw you a few fliers who've caught my attention:

Josh Johnson:  He's a risk... but this season... not so much.  I say this because even if he only pitches for a month, his starts could be quality enough to give your Roto stats a nice boost.  Don't get me wrong: he's not a fantasy savior by any means.  Hell, he's not even the Robin to your ace's Batman.  He's more like the Supporting-Actor's sister's neighbor.  How does that translate?  Well, he'll help you with WHIP and ERA... he's not going much more than 6.0 IP per start and he'll win a decent amount of games... but not an overwhelming amount.  Does this description leave you where you started?  Maybe.  But Johnson's randomness factor may be worth risking against someone like Daniel Cabrera's guaranteed-to-blow-in-the-second-half factor.

Mike Pelfrey: He's owned in my fantasy league... but that's mainly because it's filled with current and former New Yorkers.  If he's not owned in your mixed league, you should take a flier on him.  I remember a few years ago, Pelfrey was compared to Justin Verlander-lite.  Eric Mack described him as having "Verlander-like Stuff."  The funny thing (to me, since I don't own him) is that in 2008, Verlander doesn't even have Verlander-like stuff.  All shots aside, Pelfrey is maturing before our eyes.  The NY media has caught on, which means your fantasy league is not far behind.  Take a flier on him now because, from what I've seen, he's already turned the corner and hasn't yet reached his climax.

Jeff Suppan:  When he hit the DL, he was the Brewers' number three starter.  He comes back as their number five.  Insulting?  No!  That means a lot of possibly cheap wins.  He's going to be facing the fading Todd Wellemeyers and Ian Snells/Tom Gorzelannys of the NL Central for the 2nd half of 2008.  As I said about Josh Johnson... don't rely on him as a weekly-start, rather look to him for some stat padding in the second half of the season.

House Keeping Items (Kershaw and Bruce) and HOT July Pitchers!!!

It's been a while... and to be honest, a part of me was waiting to make sure my previous posts about Clayton Kershaw and Jay Bruce were correct... and they were.  For everyone who initially ignored my advice, it paid off in the short term.  However, as of right now, I still don't have Kershaw and Bruce on my roster... and I'm not really missing them.

Sure, I was wrong about Jake Westbrook.  Who could've seen that happening, huh?  Jesse Litsch flamed out (for the time being) and Jose Contreras is slowly, but surely, becoming Jose Contreras again.

Today, I wanted to take a look at the top performers for the month of July.  I decided to take a look at a player's numbers from 2005 to 2007 and see if there were any positive trends from April to July during said player's career.

Adam Wainwright is currently getting over his middle-finger energy.  He's expected to be 

ready to rock and roll come July, which, for him, is a huge breakout month.  In 41.0 inning from 2005 to 2007, Wainwright sports a 4.61 ERA in April.  May doesn't look much better with his 42.0/4.29.  Normally, June is when Wainwright really starts to 

bust it out.  Comparatively, his IP increase to 50+ (52.1) and his ERA drops below the 4.00 mark (3.78).  However, July brings about a different pitcher in Wainwright.

While is WHIP doesn't make any heads turn, his ERA shows that he's grinds it out more in July than any previous month.  Again, his innings dip back down to 46.0, but his ERA is a miniscule 2.94 in July.  What's even better is that he posts historically identical numbers in August as well.  I doubt that Wainwright is available in any leagues right now, but he's a definite buy-low candidate in every league (NL-Only, Mixed... you name it, you buy it).  Now, I wouldn't jump through fiery rings to obtain him, but Wainwright's just the guy that a championship run needs in the second half of the season.

We've seen Chad Billingsley begin the turn around process this month.  For anyone who thinks that he's going to begin a cooling down process in July, think again.  For the last two years of his MLB career, Billingsley has put up his best numbers in July.  In 70.2 innings pitched, Billingsley's pitched to the tun of a 3.18 ERA.  July represents a turnaround month for the Dodgers' young stud as his career ERA before and after the All Star Break is a full run difference (~4.15 before ~3.15 after).  

To me, I can't see someone wanting to trade this guy.  I have him on my fantasy team and, unless I was including him in a two-for-one that brought me back a superstar, I don't think I would be looking to

 deal him right now.  If Billingsley's All Star splits are any indication, his 3.54 ERA (as of post time) could conceivably dip below a 3.00 in the second half of the season.

Aaron Harang has been putrid thus far.  For every great start he has, he throws two bad ones.  As we're all aware, this is a guy who most owners drafted to be a staff anchor, not a guy who gets benched more than once a month due to inconsistencies.  

As a buy-low aficionado, I decided to take a look at Harang's 2008 Monthly splits compared to those of his career.  Here's what I found:

• In April, he over performed.  His career ERA of 4+ was erased with a stellar April 2.98 ERA.
• In May, the exact opposite happened.  His career May ERA of 3.09 was sullied by a despicable 4.98 in 2008.
• As the weather warmed in June, Harange continued to cool.  There was nearly a 3 run differential between his 2008 ERA (6+) and his career ERA (3+).

With all these things known, I can't help but look at Harang's July numbers and expect his 3.34 career ERA to remain lost.  At this point you have to wonder if he's dealing with an injury because he's become progressively worse as the season has gone on.  If you want to make a trade for this potential ace, do so at your own risk.  There's a huge caveat surrounding Harang at this point in the season.