House Keeping Items (Kershaw and Bruce) and HOT July Pitchers!!!

It's been a while... and to be honest, a part of me was waiting to make sure my previous posts about Clayton Kershaw and Jay Bruce were correct... and they were.  For everyone who initially ignored my advice, it paid off in the short term.  However, as of right now, I still don't have Kershaw and Bruce on my roster... and I'm not really missing them.

Sure, I was wrong about Jake Westbrook.  Who could've seen that happening, huh?  Jesse Litsch flamed out (for the time being) and Jose Contreras is slowly, but surely, becoming Jose Contreras again.

Today, I wanted to take a look at the top performers for the month of July.  I decided to take a look at a player's numbers from 2005 to 2007 and see if there were any positive trends from April to July during said player's career.

Adam Wainwright is currently getting over his middle-finger energy.  He's expected to be 

ready to rock and roll come July, which, for him, is a huge breakout month.  In 41.0 inning from 2005 to 2007, Wainwright sports a 4.61 ERA in April.  May doesn't look much better with his 42.0/4.29.  Normally, June is when Wainwright really starts to 

bust it out.  Comparatively, his IP increase to 50+ (52.1) and his ERA drops below the 4.00 mark (3.78).  However, July brings about a different pitcher in Wainwright.

While is WHIP doesn't make any heads turn, his ERA shows that he's grinds it out more in July than any previous month.  Again, his innings dip back down to 46.0, but his ERA is a miniscule 2.94 in July.  What's even better is that he posts historically identical numbers in August as well.  I doubt that Wainwright is available in any leagues right now, but he's a definite buy-low candidate in every league (NL-Only, Mixed... you name it, you buy it).  Now, I wouldn't jump through fiery rings to obtain him, but Wainwright's just the guy that a championship run needs in the second half of the season.

We've seen Chad Billingsley begin the turn around process this month.  For anyone who thinks that he's going to begin a cooling down process in July, think again.  For the last two years of his MLB career, Billingsley has put up his best numbers in July.  In 70.2 innings pitched, Billingsley's pitched to the tun of a 3.18 ERA.  July represents a turnaround month for the Dodgers' young stud as his career ERA before and after the All Star Break is a full run difference (~4.15 before ~3.15 after).  

To me, I can't see someone wanting to trade this guy.  I have him on my fantasy team and, unless I was including him in a two-for-one that brought me back a superstar, I don't think I would be looking to

 deal him right now.  If Billingsley's All Star splits are any indication, his 3.54 ERA (as of post time) could conceivably dip below a 3.00 in the second half of the season.

Aaron Harang has been putrid thus far.  For every great start he has, he throws two bad ones.  As we're all aware, this is a guy who most owners drafted to be a staff anchor, not a guy who gets benched more than once a month due to inconsistencies.  

As a buy-low aficionado, I decided to take a look at Harang's 2008 Monthly splits compared to those of his career.  Here's what I found:

• In April, he over performed.  His career ERA of 4+ was erased with a stellar April 2.98 ERA.
• In May, the exact opposite happened.  His career May ERA of 3.09 was sullied by a despicable 4.98 in 2008.
• As the weather warmed in June, Harange continued to cool.  There was nearly a 3 run differential between his 2008 ERA (6+) and his career ERA (3+).

With all these things known, I can't help but look at Harang's July numbers and expect his 3.34 career ERA to remain lost.  At this point you have to wonder if he's dealing with an injury because he's become progressively worse as the season has gone on.  If you want to make a trade for this potential ace, do so at your own risk.  There's a huge caveat surrounding Harang at this point in the season.

Fantasy Pitchers (Not Named Kershaw) to Consider

So Clayton Kershaw's first start went pretty damn well, as Life of Brian regular Mike Plugh pointed out on the comments page of last week's feature on the Dodgers' young starter. However, for those of us not looking to pick up the next big thing (cough-David Price-cough), I have looked through the ownership percentage page at CBS Sports and found a few guys that should definitely be considered for a roster spot in the upcoming weeks:

Jake Westbrook, CLE:  He went down with a rib cage injury after only 4 starts and was promptly dropped in a large percentage of fantasy league with little to now bench depth.  He's one of those guys that are good... but not good enough for a DL slot on a fantasy roster.  His ownership, at its peak, in Week 4 was 76% of CBS Sports leagues.  Today it sits at a lackluster 47%.  Again, he's not going to single-handedly carry your pitching staff, but for weeks like next week, when he's a two-start pitcher, he is a more than serviceable option in the deepest of fantasy leagues.  Just take a look at his first four starts:

April 3: 7.1 

IP, 6 hits, 2 ER, 1 BB, and 3 K's

April 8: 9.0 IP, 7 hits, 3 ER, 0 BB, and 4 K's

April 14: 6.1 IP, 7 hits, 1 ER, 3 BB, and 5 K's

April 19: 7.0 IP, 8 hits, 3 ER, 1 BB, and 4 K's

Now, after looking at those numbers take a gander at these:

May 8: 6.0 IP, 9 hits, 5 ER, 1 BB, and 5 K's

May 14: 6.0 IP, 6 hits, 2 ER, 3 BB, and 3 K's

May 20: 6.0 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 1 BB, and 7 K's

May 25: 7.0 IP, 5 hits, 1 ER, 4 BB, and 3 K's

The stats I places above are of a pitcher who, as of right now, is owned in 97% of CBS leagues.  Other than the 5/20 strikeout spike for our mystery pitcher, Westbrook looks like a pretty damn good option.  For those of you who are sitting on the edge of you seat wondering who this mystery pitcher is... it's none other than the Tigers' extremely underwhelming ace, Justin Verlander.

Jesse Litsch, TOR: His ownership exploded this week to a whopping 59%, despite only 29% of leagues starting him.  For that minority, Litsch has done nothing but pitch brilliantly.  Of his last six starts*, Litsch has failed to go 7 innings once (5.2 @ Minnesota).  During this span he sports and ERA of 2.08 and a .90 WHIP, which is insane.  I don't know how anyone is looking at these numbers and passing on this kid.  He doesn't strike anyone out (2:1 IP-K ratio), but he doesn't walk anyone either (9 walks in 69 IP...crazy).  Other than all of that... these numbers are in line with everything he's done throughout his career, so there's no fine print or "but" after his stat line.  Take a look at what I mean:

2006: 158.2 IP, 1.25 WHIP

2007: 187.1 IP, 1.25 WHIP

2008 (so far): 65 IP, 1.15 WHIP

2008 (on pace): 192 IP, 1.15 WHIP, and 3.15 ERA

That projection, to me, is a bit off.  I can't see a guy whose career WHIP is 1.25 shaving it down

 that much out of no where.  Nonetheless, those numbers indicate that Litsch is on pace to fall somewhere in between the 2007 numbers of Greg Maddux and Chien Ming Wang.  Wang's ERA is very low and Maddux's is high... but either way, these indicators are telling you to buy Litsch... and soon.

Jose Contreras, ChW:  Wait... let me make sure I want to do

 this...  Hmmm... 42.2 IP, 2.11 ERA, 0.84 WHIP in his last six?  Okay.  I'll endorse Jose Contreras as an undervalued commodity (as of now).  I mean, look at those numbers, that's absolutely filthy!  Obviously any fantasy veteran knows that he's not going to keep this streak up.  He's too old and been around the block too many times, plus he's a head-case.  However, don't let someone else in your league pick him up and use him against you (don't you hate when that happen?).  He's a decent start for next week and maybe the week after that... but don't ride him until he dies, because it could be swift and painful for both you and him.  I wouldn't put him in the same category as the two guys listed above, but he's definitely worth picking up if you have the available roster space.

Flavor (Hater) of the Week: Jay Bruce

Last week, Clayton Kershaw, considered by many to be the top pitching prospect in baseball, was the fantasy flavor of the week. Today the Reds made waves by bringing up the best hitting prospect in the minors, Jay Bruce. Upon his call up, Bruce was hitting .364 (Batting Average)/.393 (On-Base Percentage)/.630 (Slugging Percentage) with 10 homers and 37 RBI in 49 games at Triple-A. Immediately, my attention is drawn toward the miniscule differential between Bruce's batting average and OBP. 30 points? Is that it? I mean obviously this kid's knocking the cover off the ball in Triple-A, but I can't imagine that translating seamlessly in the majors... it hardly ever does. Which brings me to my problem with his OBP. Can the kid take a few pitches in the minors? He's not going to me getting a hit during every at-bat in the majors, so it's important that he have impeccable strike zone vision. I can't say that I see that through his numbers though.

In an ESPN Fantasy Baseball article, Will Harris notes that "it is too much to ask for him to duplicate Ryan Braun's improbable 2007 rookie season, if anyone has a chance to make that sort of impact this year, it's Bruce." I don't have any major qualms with this position, I only want to point out how out-of-nowhere Braun's rookie campaign was. Looking back at this minor league numbers, his batting average, like Bruce's, was in the high .300's. However, his OBP was always at least .600 points higher than his batting average.  Bruce's Single and Double-A numbers are freakishly in line with those of Braun, however his Triple-A numbers provide a clear differentiation:

Braun (in 34 games): .342/.418/.701

Bruce (in 49 games): ..364/.393/.630

It's uncontested that Bruce puts the bat on the ball more than Braun did in Triple-A, but Braun's recognition between balls and strikes is what made, and continues to make, him so dangerous. Let's face it, MLB pitchers are out to exploit impatient young hitters like Bruce. A young hitter should establish himself as a guy who's willing to take a few pitches and make the pitcher work for an out... not to just swing away because its worked in the past, that just doesn't work.

I think that Bruce is going to make an impact in the majors. He plays in a small enough ballpark and will definitely have some sort of protection in the line up, no matter where he bats. If Joey Votto is any indication of how a transitioning batter reacts in the Reds' line up when called up to the majors, Bruce should definitely be fine.

For fantasy purposes, it's difficult for me to recommend dropping someone for him. I like to see guys work for a spot on my roster before I dump someone proven for a rookie. Not only that, but outfield has been so incredibly deep this season, I would only consider a guy like Bruce in a really deep mixed league, or a league that requires that you start more than 3 OFs a night/week.

In the end, I'd sit on Jay Bruce. If someone picks him up... good for them. Let Bruce prove you wrong on someone else's roster rather than having you suffer through the growing pains of a young hitter. Try to remember that Ryan Braun doesn't happen every year... the odds are in your favor.