Fantasy Baseball Prep: First Base

Part Two of this multi-part mini-series brings us to First Base.  Again, for an introduction to this series, feel free to click here for a break down of the point system.  

Also, if you missed out on the rather telling "Fantasy Baseball Prep: Catchers" post from yesterday evening, feel free to either scroll down or follow the above link to the post's location.

To begin, I want to rehash the two statistical formulas that I am incorporating into my research this year:  points-per-opportunity (pts/opp) and points-per-plate-appearance (pts/pa).  Essentially the two categories boil down like this, pts/opp is the Slugging% for points-based fantasy baseball leagues and pts/pa represents the OPS for points-based fantasy leagues.

With that said, let's start with the slugging and make our way to the OPS.  The range of pts/opp. was pretty vast.  The low (1.54 pts/opp) was Daric Barton, who coincidently may have lost his job today with the A's signing of Jason Giambi to a 1-year contract.  The high (2.68) went to, you guessed it, Ryan Howard.  The average for first basemen was 2.31 points/opp.  

That places a few familiar a a few unfamiliar names at the average point position in this slugging category.  The first, a maybe-surprising / maybe-not, player is Derrek Lee (2.26), who's seen his overall production decline dramatically over the past two seasons.  Below Lee is Kevin Youkilis (2.25), who had a break-out season in 2008, and Ryan Garko (2.24), the Indians' over-hyped first baseman.

While Garko is where I would expect him to be, some may be surprised by the presence of Youkilis among the "below-average" points/oppertunity crowd.  To that I say, take a look at the numbers.  2.25 pts/opp. is not a bad total at all for someone... especially someone dubbed the "Greek God of Walks."  Think about it.  That means that for every walk Youkilis takes in 2009, he should be expect to (a) score a run, or (b) steal a base... then get caught stealing.  Obviously, option-A is a bit more likely to occur in a line-up as potent as that of the Red Sox.

Above Derrek Lee (our Mason-Dixon line for the purposes of this post) are two virtual unknowns: Kendry Morales (2.28) and John Bowker (2.34).  

The aforementioned Bowker may be a bit of a long shot.  Especially if the Giants sign Joe Crede and shift Pablo Sandoval from 3B to 1B in 2009.  Though Bowker is obviously capable of putting up respecitble points with the increase of opportunity, the Giants may opt for a discounted rate on Crede and give the 25 year-old more time in the minors.

Kendry Morales, on the other hand, is in line to be the Angels' starting first baseman in 2009.  When the Halo's traded Casey Kotchman for a virtual rent-a-player in Mark Teixeira, you had to think that L.A. had some-sort of "ace" up their sleeve.  In this case, the ace was Kendry Morales.  Now, don't get me wrong... the Angels would've loved to bring Teixeira back to to L.A., but Morales may provide a considerable more pop from the 3-spot than Casey Kotchman EVER did during his time with the Halo's.

Moving on from our first base mashers, let's take a look at a few OPS superstars for points-based fantasy baseball leagues.  The top-dog in the yard is everyone's favorite Cardinal, Albert Pujols (1.06).  I'm sorry.  But if you have a player who's averaging a point per plate appearance... you should thank your lucky stars on a night basis.  Pujols and Ryan Howard (1.00) are the only first basemen who top the 1-point threshold... which is absurd.  It doesn't take a rocket scientist to tell you that if you can get your hands on one of these fantasy-monsters... pull the trigger and get in while the getting's good.

The average players in this category surround Adrian Gonzalez (.83).  Below Gonzalez are seriously, a bunch of fantasy scrubs.  The first two are Paul Konerko (.82) and Adam LaRoche (.81), both of whom, as everyone who's owned them know, are hugely overrated at this point in their careers.

To me, the best value in the Top-12 in the pts/pa category is Joey Votto (.91), who places above perennial All-Stars Justin Morneau (.86), Kevin Youkilis (.85), and Carlos Pena (.87).  Also, a bit above Votto is everyone's favorite vegan, Prince Fielder (.91) and new hundred-million-dollar-man, Mark Teixeira (.95).

To say the least, you could probably draft Votto 5 rounds (if not more) behind the majority of these first basemen.  If you're a Bill James supporter, look for Joey V. to bust it out in '09, and be a regular contributer for both the Reds and your fantasy baseball team.

Fantasy Baseball Musings: Second Half Studs

For a minute, I just want to write about something I care about more than anything else in sports: Fantasy Baseball. It’s true, call me a nerd, call me whatever you want. I’ve really heard it all and I don’t care. My roommate and my girlfriend have witnessed me purchasing champagne to put on ice during championship weeks. They’ve seen me have mood-swings indicating some sort of bizarre bi-polar disorder depending on my team’s outing that particular week. In sum, during the baseball season—it controls my life.

My team, The Guns of Navarone (Pulp Fiction reference), won seven games in a row this season. The streak ended after I lost to the same man that defeated me in last season’s championship game: Tom Byrnes. I deserved it though. Every Monday it’s somewhat hard to set my line up in the best possible order due to my work schedule. For anyone who knows my line of work (beat reporter for both the Mets and Yankees), that may seem rather strange. Think what you will, I’ve made calls to my younger sister (who could care less about baseball) to make last minute adjustments to my roster before the deadline (mainly because I know that I can trust her to blindly make the move that I ask her to).

For instance, I drafted Mike Piazza at the start of this year solely because he was set to become the full-time designated hitter for the Oakland Athletics. Now, as anyone who has followed baseball knows, he’s been on the DL for an extend (maybe 2.5-3 months) because the A’s want to make him a regular catcher. I am ready to pull my hair out on a weekly basis, as I have to scout a new catcher every week to insert into my, otherwise, solid lineup. This week, David Ross has gone 0-for-ever up until a solo HR on Saturday afternoon.

At any rate, this is an example of the moves I will ask my sister to make just seconds before rosters lock each week. I reference each player's 2007 stats for the year thus far plus Ron Shandler’s documentation of 2006 stats. I attempt to draw parallels between the Baseball Prospectus and the Baseball Forecaster to achieve the most accurate numbers for a give player in a given part of the year. This brings me to the second half of the 2007 season…

Richie Sexson is one of the worst fundamental batters in MLB history. If he doesn’t connect for a home run, he strikes out. His biggest knock is that he bats around .265 to .270 every year, which isn’t terrible, but it isn’t great either. So much of what’s “great” and “horrible” in baseball depends on a player's contract anyway… which is good for fantasy baseball managers. In this instance, Sexson bats around .200 in the first half of every season, meaning that, if the numbers don’t lie, he’s capable of batting around .310 for the rest of the season, thus bringing him to that “horrible” .267 batting-average.

The same can be said for Adam LaRoche, a player who, up until 2006, was a career platoon first baseman for the Atlanta Braves. In ’06, however, LaRoche stepped it up. He batted almost one-hundred points higher in the second half of the season than he did the first half. What that means is that the Pirates may get their money’s worth in the second half of 2007. In every league I belong to I’ve been attempting to acquire LaRoche, in most I’ve been rejected. This is mainly a result of the offering of uneven deals based on LaRoche’s average draft position (ADP). Therefore, an offer of Nate Robertson for LaRoche would never be accepted by opposing owners.

Jermaine Dye is another player who has made a living off great second half’s, much to the tune of historic second half players like Eric Chavez and Aramis Ramirez. While Dye has been injured and struggling for the early part for 2007, what’s stopping him from ending up with his usual numbers of around.280 with upwards of 25-30 home runs. The guy can obviously his, his slugging percentage hasn’t dipped at an incredible enough rate that owners should give up on him…

In the end, there are a number of other players who have great career second half numbers. It just takes a little research and dedication to figure out whom your team should target and who should be the next to leave you fantasy team. For me, it’s hard to decide, mainly because I feel like my team is holding a number of really good young players combined with a healthy portion of veterans. Perhaps my main concern bounces between Ervin Santana, Javy Vazquez, and Phil Hughes. Obviously, Hughes has the best potential of the three, but currently Vazquez, the vet, has pitched the best. Santana falls somewhere in between. I remember 3 years ago when Peter Gammons sat on the set of Baseball Tonight and told the world that in 4 to 5 years fans would be talking about Ervin Santana as the best Santana in baseball (referring to annual Cy Young contender Johan). Well Pete… I’m still waiting for the guy you warned about. It would be really nice if he showed up every once in a while…