Weather Warnings: How the Weather Could Influence Your Pitching Rotation

I found this useful article on CBS Sports...  I thought it might be useful for anyone who's unsure of pitching match-ups for the rest of this week and for next week's scoring period:

Twins @ Orioles

BALTIMORE -- Relentless rain forced Minnesota and Baltimore to play a doubleheader Saturday.

The game never started and was finally called after a delay of nearly two hours.

Saturday's doubleheader will start at 5:05 p.m.

The Twins began the day in second place in the AL Central, one game behind the Chicago White Sox. Minnesota trailed Boston by 5½ games in the wild-card race.

My Take:  Glenn Perkins and Scott Baker are set to pitch today (Saturday the 13th) for the Twins.  They'll be facing Garrett Olsen and Daniel Cabrera... though I'm sure more fantasy players have the Twins young-hurlers than the Orioles' duo for Saturday's double-headers.  Tomorrow, Nick Blackburn and Radhames Liz wrap this puppy up.  

However, according to the weather report for this series, the O's and Twins will probably only get the afternoon game in (there's supposed to be a lot of rain and thunder-storm activity in the area

 tonight).  Tomorrow, there's supposed to much more baseball-friendly weather.  I would look for two games for Sunday, rather than Saturday.  If you're in a daily league, don't bank on Scott Baker and Daniel Cabrera for today's schedule...

Tigers @ White Sox

CHICAGO -- Rain forced the postponement of the game between Detroit and 

Chicago. A makeup date was not immediately set.

Even though batting practice was canceled, the grounds crew worked on the field to dry it out and it appeared the game would start on time. But three minutes before the scheduled 7:11 first pitch, the tarp was rolled out and the field was covered again.

The Tigers were scheduled to start Justin Verlander against Chicago's John Danks on Friday. The series marks Detroit's final appearance in Chicago this season.
It is the AL Central leading White Sox's second rainout of the week. They were also postponed Monday night and then swept in a doubleheader by Toronto on Tuesday.

My Take:  According to the weather report in Chicago... I don't think either of these games are going to be played.  The first match up pits Kenny Rogers against Javier Vazquez... first pitch is scheduled for 2:55 PM (EST), but 3:00 PM has a 80% chance of precipitation.  The second game, scheduled to take place and hour after the conclusion of the first game, offers a Zack Minor - Lance Broadway duel.  If, and that's a big IF, the first game does get played... I don't think the second one will...

I would say that a double header would be more likely for Sunday... but that weather report isn't much better.  There's a chance that this entire series could be rained out as Sunday has a 70% chance of rain for the entire day (and that's not an exaggeration).  Owners of Javier Vazquez (Saturday), John Danks (Sunday), and Justin Verlander (Sunday) should definitely be prepared for each of these starts to be bumped into the beginning of next week.  If you're in a weekly league... that means two-starts for each at a pivotal point in the fantasy season... so keep you eye on this developing story.

Braves @ Mets

NEW YORK -- Eager to lock up the NL East title after letting it slip away last

 season, the New York will have to wait a day before beginning their taxing stretch drive.

New York's game against the Atlanta Braves was postponed by rain Friday night and will be made up Saturday as part of a single-admission doubleheader beginning at 3:55 p.m.

The tarp stayed on the field all evening Friday and the game was called after a 90-minute delay. Johan Santana (13-7) had been scheduled to pitch for the NL East leaders against ex-Met Mike Hampton (2-2). Pedro Martinez (5-4) was lined up for Saturday against Atlanta lefty Jo-Jo Reyes (3-10).

Now, the Mets are scheduled to play 17 games over the final 16 days of the regular season, without a day off. New York is three games ahead of second-place Philadelphia -- four up in the loss column -- and desperately wants to erase the bitter memories of last September's embarrassing collapse.

My Take: The Mets are going to have really bad weather all day... but no rain, it seems.  So if 

you have Johan Santana, Mike Hampton (both a 3:55 PM, Easter start), Jo-Jo Reyes, or Jonathan Niese (Game 2 on Saturday)... it seems like all four starters will get their games in.  On Sunday, Ollie Perez and Jorge Campillo may experience a delay due to thunder storming, but they'll get the game in at some point.  Feel free to treat all three games as if they're guaranteed to occur this weekend.

Brewers @ Phillies

PHILADELPHIA -- Cole Hamels gets to rest an extra day. Brett Myers is ready to pitch whenever the Philadelphia Phillies need him.

Steady rain forced the postponement of a key matchup between the NL wild card-leading Milwaukee Brewers and Phillies on Friday night.

The game will be made up as part of a day-night doubleheader on Sunday. The first game starts at 1:35 p.m. and the nightcap at 7:35 p.m.

The Phillies won the opener of the four-game series Thursday night to move within three games of Milwaukee.

Scheduled starters Hamels (12-9) and Manny Parra (10-7) will start Saturday. 

Milwaukee will send Dave Bush (9-10) and Jeff 

Suppan (10-8) to the mound Sunday.  Joe Blanton (2-0) and Myers (9-11) will pitch for the Phillies.

My Take: Saturday's game between Manny Parra and Cole Hamels is going to feature an annoying drizzle that could come and go creating several minor delays.  It wont be enough to cancel the game, but it will be annoying and could influence the starts for each of these pitchers.

Sunday both games will definitely be played.  It's supposed to be beautiful... so expect Hammels/Parra (Saturday), David Bush/Joe Blanton (Sunday, Game 1), and Jeff Suppan/Brett Myers (Sunday, Game 2) to all get their games in and stay on regular rest going into next week.

Fantasy Baseball Musings: Second Half Studs

For a minute, I just want to write about something I care about more than anything else in sports: Fantasy Baseball. It’s true, call me a nerd, call me whatever you want. I’ve really heard it all and I don’t care. My roommate and my girlfriend have witnessed me purchasing champagne to put on ice during championship weeks. They’ve seen me have mood-swings indicating some sort of bizarre bi-polar disorder depending on my team’s outing that particular week. In sum, during the baseball season—it controls my life.

My team, The Guns of Navarone (Pulp Fiction reference), won seven games in a row this season. The streak ended after I lost to the same man that defeated me in last season’s championship game: Tom Byrnes. I deserved it though. Every Monday it’s somewhat hard to set my line up in the best possible order due to my work schedule. For anyone who knows my line of work (beat reporter for both the Mets and Yankees), that may seem rather strange. Think what you will, I’ve made calls to my younger sister (who could care less about baseball) to make last minute adjustments to my roster before the deadline (mainly because I know that I can trust her to blindly make the move that I ask her to).

For instance, I drafted Mike Piazza at the start of this year solely because he was set to become the full-time designated hitter for the Oakland Athletics. Now, as anyone who has followed baseball knows, he’s been on the DL for an extend (maybe 2.5-3 months) because the A’s want to make him a regular catcher. I am ready to pull my hair out on a weekly basis, as I have to scout a new catcher every week to insert into my, otherwise, solid lineup. This week, David Ross has gone 0-for-ever up until a solo HR on Saturday afternoon.

At any rate, this is an example of the moves I will ask my sister to make just seconds before rosters lock each week. I reference each player's 2007 stats for the year thus far plus Ron Shandler’s documentation of 2006 stats. I attempt to draw parallels between the Baseball Prospectus and the Baseball Forecaster to achieve the most accurate numbers for a give player in a given part of the year. This brings me to the second half of the 2007 season…

Richie Sexson is one of the worst fundamental batters in MLB history. If he doesn’t connect for a home run, he strikes out. His biggest knock is that he bats around .265 to .270 every year, which isn’t terrible, but it isn’t great either. So much of what’s “great” and “horrible” in baseball depends on a player's contract anyway… which is good for fantasy baseball managers. In this instance, Sexson bats around .200 in the first half of every season, meaning that, if the numbers don’t lie, he’s capable of batting around .310 for the rest of the season, thus bringing him to that “horrible” .267 batting-average.

The same can be said for Adam LaRoche, a player who, up until 2006, was a career platoon first baseman for the Atlanta Braves. In ’06, however, LaRoche stepped it up. He batted almost one-hundred points higher in the second half of the season than he did the first half. What that means is that the Pirates may get their money’s worth in the second half of 2007. In every league I belong to I’ve been attempting to acquire LaRoche, in most I’ve been rejected. This is mainly a result of the offering of uneven deals based on LaRoche’s average draft position (ADP). Therefore, an offer of Nate Robertson for LaRoche would never be accepted by opposing owners.

Jermaine Dye is another player who has made a living off great second half’s, much to the tune of historic second half players like Eric Chavez and Aramis Ramirez. While Dye has been injured and struggling for the early part for 2007, what’s stopping him from ending up with his usual numbers of around.280 with upwards of 25-30 home runs. The guy can obviously his, his slugging percentage hasn’t dipped at an incredible enough rate that owners should give up on him…

In the end, there are a number of other players who have great career second half numbers. It just takes a little research and dedication to figure out whom your team should target and who should be the next to leave you fantasy team. For me, it’s hard to decide, mainly because I feel like my team is holding a number of really good young players combined with a healthy portion of veterans. Perhaps my main concern bounces between Ervin Santana, Javy Vazquez, and Phil Hughes. Obviously, Hughes has the best potential of the three, but currently Vazquez, the vet, has pitched the best. Santana falls somewhere in between. I remember 3 years ago when Peter Gammons sat on the set of Baseball Tonight and told the world that in 4 to 5 years fans would be talking about Ervin Santana as the best Santana in baseball (referring to annual Cy Young contender Johan). Well Pete… I’m still waiting for the guy you warned about. It would be really nice if he showed up every once in a while…