Carlos Quentin: 2008 Surprise? Not According to the Numbers

It's incredible how out-of-no-where Carlos Quentin has been in 2008... or has it? Last year, Quentin was receiving the same hype leading into 2007 that Hunter Pence received going into this season. In 2005 Quentin knocked out 21 home runs in Triple-A Tuscan on the Diamondbacks' farm, all the while batting .301 with an OPS over .900. After that season, scouts and fans alike were drooling over this 23-year old's potential. Baseball Prospectus said Quentin's 2005 numbers were a true testament to his ability, as he was fresh off Tommy John surgery in the previous season. BP's 2006 projection: 15 homers, .268 BA, and a OPS over .800. Not a bad projection for a rookie outfielder in a then-empty D-Backs line-up.

Baseball Think Factory's ZiPS projected Quentin to knock out 15 home runs, bat .269, to the tune of a .778 OPS. Again, not too bad a projection for a guy who, up until that point, had never seen a major league pitch. As it turns out, Quentin received little time in the Majors in 2006. His combined numbers between Triple-A and the MLB: 18 homers, a .276 BA, with a .912 OPS in Triple-A and a .872 OPS in the Majors.

While the batting average was not fantastic... let's be honest with ourselves, that's pretty damn impressive for a rookie. Combine that with the .872 OPS, and you have yourself a nice looking prospect.

In the 2007 edition of Baseball Prospectus, the projections were on the conservative side (not that I am ever expecting Matthew Berry-esque projections from the folks at BP): 18 homers, .285 BA, and a .872 OPS. Essentially the BP team was expecting more the same from Quentin in the OPS department (more slanted toward the OBP than the SLG%) with an increase in BA. They didn't really offer an explaination, but they didn't really need to either. Quentin was, at best, going to be splitting time with guys like Chad Tracy, (an unproven) Eric Byrnes, Scott Hairston, and two high-end prospects named Justin Upton and Chris Young. Essentially, Quentin's talent was going to be strangled by platoons in

2007.

Ron Shandler, more-less, sided with the BP experts: 20 homers, .275, and .841. For Shandler, however, Quentin's "power may arrive before [batting average], but both are on the way." So, depending on which book you place your trust in, Quentin was either going to see an increase in batting average (BP) or power (Shandler).

What happened? Both were wrong. Quentin suffered a torn labrum in the early goings of 2007 and never really got back on track. Both his power (9 homers) and batting average (.258) fell and left both our experts turned off (BP: 11-.263-.788, Shandler: 12-.262-.754). What both sources may have dismissed as 'fluke' was Quentin's SLG% of .400 in 2007...

Now, obviously, hind-sight is 20-20 and Quentin, after being dealt from the D-Backs (who had no room for him anyway) to the Chicago White Sox, is absolutely raking. As I am writing this, he just hit his 12th home run of the year, putting him on a pace for more than 40 in 2008. His OBP is in David Ortiz's realm at 1.004 and he's hitting over .300 while batting 2nd in a potent White Sox line-up.

Quentin went through, what I like to call, the "Hank Blalock Effect (named after Blalock who, after being hyped like nobody's business in 2001, failed to meet expectations in 2002-- Only before breaking out without warning in 2003 after he was left on the scrap heap by fans and analysts). Is Quentin going to keep this pace up? Probably not. But it's still great to see him rising like a phoenix (no Arizona pun intended) this season for both White Sox fans and for fantasy baseball owners. Like Blalock in 2003, it's going to be hard for this guy to keep this pace up... but that doesn't mean you shouldn't enjoy it while it lasts.

Andruw Jones: Major League Enigma

Yesterday, Andruw Jones was released by a team in my fantasy league after new Dodgers Manager Joe Torre benched his high-profile center fielder (please notice my refusal to describe Jones as a ‘star’ center fielder). I jumped on the opportunity to stash Jones on my roster this early on in the 2008 season. Currently, I have Alfonso Soriano and Grady Sizemore as the two regulars in my outfield. The final spot consists of a platoon featuring Rick Ankiel and Johnny Damon (who I defend against fantasy critics here). Naturally, I thought Jones could only help this situation…

This transaction occured the same day Matthew Berry blogged about “regretting the Andruw Jones prediction” of batting .265 with 30 home runs in 2008. Baseball Prospectus knocks about ten points off the average (.256) with one less home run (29). Ron Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster projects nearly identical numbers for Jones as well with a .254 BA with 28 homers. Aside from Berry’s Richie Sexson-esque prediction, BP and Shandler are eerily similar in their projections.

Now let’s look into what people thought about Jones before he began to take the same shape as his fat contract:

Baseball Prospectus: They look at Jones’ stats over the past three seasons as ask “was it a change in his skills, or just one of those fluke seasons?” Due to his age (31) and his somewhat robotic output of 30+ homeruns, 100+ RBI, and a .260 BA, BP views 2007’s lows as “one of those fluke seasons.” I’m sure the crew over at BP may be reconsidering that view as Jones has looked sloppy in physical stature and sluggish on the field as a member of the Dodgers.

Baseball Forecaster: Quite simply: “Lotsa oddness.” Shandler points out that Jones’ second half was more in line with his career batting peripherals. However, his power was still missing. Personally, I think the 51 HR / 45 HR Jones is gone forever, so I can’t really gripe about the lost power source in 2007; but Shandler’s right, once everything else (BA, OBP, SLG, Contact%) improves for the second half, it’s really a head scratcher that the power doesn’t follow suit.

Obviously, Jones has been absolutely putrid in April thus far. Let’s take a look at his OPS, HR, RBI, & Runs Scores in 2008 compared to 2007:


In 2007, Jones had 88 At-Bats in April that resulted in the numbers above. However, Jones’ current pace puts him nowhere near the April numbers of last year (which was recognized as a “bad” year).

This bring us back to my predicament: Am I certifiably insane for picking up this mess of a ball player for my squad? Maybe. But my thinking is that he’s, at most, 1/3 of a starter for my team. I’m not going to be relying on Andruw Jones to carry my team by any means, but (as Ron Shandler reminds us all) once a player demonstrates skills… he owns them. As I said before, I think the 45-125 Andruw Jones is lost and gone forever, but I think that he still possesses enough skill to be the man who Matthew Berry is afraid to stand by. My bold prediction is that Jones will win me at least one fantasy game this year… and for that, this transaction was well worth it.