Carlos Quentin: Major League Disappointment (Continues...)

Here's the latest from last year's MVP candidate via The Sports Xchange:

"We're aware that if a relapse happens where the tendon ruptures even more, well, that's major," Quentin said. "That's something that's going to take longer, maybe even the rest of the season. So we're thinking that if that tendon goes, that's a two- to four-month recovery. Where we're at in the baseball season, two-to-four really doesn't work out as far as being able to play again this season. That's more of the concern right now."

Wow.  Personally, I am a horribly disappointed Carlos Quentin owner in a 12-team keeper league.  When I saw this news, my initial impulse was to throw something... hard.  Or, better yet, punch something... hard.  That impulse, however, reminded me of last season... when Carlos Quentin broke his hand in frustration...

The combination of two thoughts (the first being how much I hate Carlos Quentin and the second being my concern for my own hand) prevented me from taking any physical action.  The above is the latest in an on-going injury plagued career for such a promising young major leaguer, in Carlos Quentin.

Nearly two years ago, when I skimmed the pages of the 2008 Baseball Prospectus, I almost immediately stumbled upon the name "Carlos Quentin."  Why?  Well, he played for the D-Backs at the time and BP is displayed in alphabetical order.  In Quentin's bio, the guys and gals at BP noted that he had a world of talent, but was too injury prone.  The projected meager stats, and Carlos Quentin made them look silly....

...or did he?

If anything, 2009 has shown what an aberration 2008's MVP campaign was for Carlos Quentin.  Furthermore, it displayed how scarily accurate Baseball Prospectus can be.

So... fellow Carlos Quentin owners, what's our next step.  Well, for anyone who's late to get on the bandwagon, Quentin is almost "drop-able."  Yes.  It pains me to say so, but if you're in a single-season (non-keeper) league, Quentin's foot ailments and news of *almost* shutting it down puts him in the red-zone.  Here's who we all should be looking at as potential replacements:

Cody Ross: In most leagues, this guy's available.  He started off like a bat out of hell but really, really, REALLY cooled off for most of April and the early parts of May.  Over the last 5 weeks, however, Ross has averaged nearly 26 points/week in points based leagues.  Not to mention his OPS of nearly .900 during his last 15 games.  While other studs like Hanley Ramirez take over the spotlight in Miami, look for a hard-nosed break-out player in Ross to help ease the loss of someone as spectacular as Carlos Quentin.

Juan Rivera: I remember young Juan fumbling around the Yankees' outfield in the early part of the new millennium.  While his average and arm left something to be desired, he still had that little "Ricky Ledee" in him that all Yankee fans wanted to grasp on to as a token of their championship years.  Well... Ricky Ledee's probably warming someone's bench right now (maybe in the independent leagues?  It's not important enough to look up, to be blunt) and Juan Rivera is doing his best impersonation of Bernie Williams (yes, THAT Yankee favorite of the Dynasty years).  Over his last 15 games, Rivera's OPS is in vintage Big Papi territory at nearly 1.000.  And he's averaging around 23 points/week over his last five weeks.  Kudos to ESPN's Matthew Berry for having such a man crush on this guy that he stuck out in my mind.  Rivera's dominance probably will not last... but it doesn't mean you can't ride him into the ground, Dusty Baker-style!

Nolan Reimold: Yes, one of the many man-crushes of my blog, Reimold has done nothing but impress since his call to the bigs.  The Greenville, PA product has averaged 20/week in points based leagues--with the potential to do a bit more.   It's hard to put all your faith in a rookie, but Reimold's OPS of .951 over his last 15 games is enough to warrant consideration in most leagues.  Hold him as a 3rd - 4th OF for your team.  This guy has the make up of a 2nd half sleeper and may be worth it on your team's turn-around run.

Nick Swisher: 2009's Carlos Quentin?

Well... not quite Carlos Quentin (Swisher will not hit 40 bombs this year), but in Fantasy terms, Nick Swisher's initial value (nothing) and long-term value (high-end #2 outfielder) match-up well to Quentin's 2008 Fantasy Baseball Odyssey.  

What makes Swish so valuable this early in the season was the severe lack of respectable first basemen in last month's draft.  His dual eligibility (1B and OF)  makes him particularly attractive in leagues that have little to no room on a team's bench.

All prep aside, let's take a look at what makes Swisher's 2009 "Quentin Worthy:"

Above, we see Nick Swisher's major league numbers.  It's hard to believe, but this guys only been in the Majors for just over 4 years.  Looking over his career, Swisher obviously had his "career-year" in his sophomore 2006, when he almost slugged at a .500 clip.  Since then, his SLG% has fallen dramatically, resulting in last year's .410 result with the Chicago White Sox.

Now, we all know Swisher's bread-and-butter is his on-base percentage... but even that was down in 2008, which begs the question:  "What the hell happened in '08?"

Well, to start, Swisher's BABIP fell over 50 points last year, pointing to shitty luck as an immediate culprit in his horrendous 2008.  As Yahoo! Sports' Matt Buser notes in a February 2007 article, "One of the most interesting things about [BABIP] is that it's widely acknowledged that luck plays a part in each player's BABIP. For hitters, there are three things that play a large part: skill, speed, and luck."

Furthermore, Buser's ambiguous notion that "skill" plays a role in BABIP eliminates any subsequent discussion about Swisher's apparent skill, so I'm not going to even go there.  But it doesn't take a brain surgeon to realize that Nick Swisher is a slow guy.  Again, assuming Swisher has "decent" skill, we have a 1-1 split coming down to luck as the deciding factor.

So me... Swisher was just "unlucky" in 2008.  Much like Quentin's 2007, Swisher was viewed as a 4th outfielder and a back-up first baseman on a team that already featured two (Jim Thome and Paul Konerko).  Essentially, Nick Swisher had nowhere to play.

His fate seemed similar with his new team, the New York Yankees, as the team vowed to use Brett Gardner in CF rather than the defensively inept Swisher.  This made Swish the number one back-up for Johnny Damon in left, Xavier Nady in right, and Mark Teixeira at first.

That is... until about 2 hours ago when news broke that Xavier Nady will likely miss the remainder of 2009 with a torn elbow ligament.

Now it's Swisher's turn to prove that he's worthy of a full-season of at-bats.  Let's not forget... it was Carlos Quentin's white-hot start that placed Nick Swisher in a "back-up" role as a member of the White Sox.  Now, in a ironic twist, Swisher finds himself in a similar position.

During the off-season, I compiled an average "projected points" list using Bill James' Handbook, Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster, MARCEL, ZiPS, and ESPN.  This conglomerate projects Nick Swisher's 488.9 points to outscore fellow outfielders Shane Victorino (484), Vernon Wells (475), Jayson Werth (451) and Rick Ankiel (453).  He also places above first basemen Paul Konerko (471), Connor Jackson (481), and Carlos Guillen (451). 

To say the least, Swisher is a must-add bat right now... ESPECIALLY batting in the middle of the Yankees' potent line-up.  Feel free to confidently add him to your starting line-up for the next scoring period.

Shin-Soo Choo: 2009's Rick Ankiel?

Okay, wipe the coffee you just spit out off your monitor...

If you're asking yourself who's Shin-Soo Choo, then you're in dire-straights before the season even begins.  Choo, a former starting pitcher in the Seattle Mariner's farm system, converted to outfielder after a copious amount of arm problems in the minors and has thrived since his trade to Cleveland.

What I found most interesting about Choo's extended call-up in 2008 (361 plate-appearances), was the fact that his OPS (.924) topped Hanley Ramirez, Chase Utley, Carlos Lee, and Josh Hamilton, just to name a few.  Does this mean Choo's going to top these guys?  No!  Of course that's not the case, but 2008 may be an indicator that a breakout is on the horizon for Choo in 2009.

Looking back to 2007, there was another converted-outfielder who put up a high-OPS (.863)in limited plate-appearances.  His name:  Rick Ankiel.  In 2008, Ankiel continued more-of-the-same in his PA's with a .843 OPS.  Ankiel, like Choo, played in a hitter's park and eventually found himself in the middle of the line-up with Albert Pujols somewhere nearby.

Taking a look at Choo's projected points/plate-appearance (formula offered here), he's expected to do much better than some "names" who will be drafted before him:

Bill James:  .842 pts/pa

CBS Sports:   .841 pts/pa

MARCEL:  .875 pts/pa

For Bill James, Choo should be expected to outperform the likes of Jermaine Dye (.83), Andre Ethier (.82), Nick Swisher (.81), Hideki Matsui (.80), Vernon Wells (.80), and Johnny Damon (80) in a points-based fantasy baseball league.  Now, I like the comparables here, BUT the oddball in this equation has to be Andre Ethier.  Like Choo, he's a younger (27) and in everyone's favorite "breakout" age.  Due to the fact that Ethier is guaranteed much more playing time, I would elevate him a bit out of the group of mediocrity where Bill James places him.

Moving on to CBS Sports, Choo's fantasy output (.841) is similar to those of Alex Rios (.841) and Torii Hunter (.841), two guys who will be drafted light-years before anyone even considers giving Choo the time of day.  

MARCEL provides the most favorable points/plate-appearance projection for Choo (.87); placing him in the top-20 OVERALL.  That's right.  Choo denied Chase Utley a finish in the Top-20 (Utley was 21... not bad).

Of all the players Choo weighs in above, one thing is for certain: your outfield CAN be built late.  In a draft where you're more concerned with position eligibility, be sure to have post it with "Shin-Soo Choo" written on it somewhere in your notes.  He has the potential to hit 20-25 home runs for Cleveland in 2009 while maintaining a ~.300 BA.

That all said, don't rely on him as a guaranteed 3rd outfielder in your league.  Draft him as a high-end 4th and watch what happens.  I'm not saying he's going to be the next Carlos Quentin, but you could definitely do a lot worse than having the 2009 version of Rick Ankiel at your disposal.

(Side-note:  If you believe in the "Age-27" Breakout Theory... then Choo's also turning 27 this season.  Enjoy.)

Fantasy Baseball Prep: Bill James Handbook

For Christmas this year, I made three requests: 

(1) Beyond Belief, by Josh Hamilton

(2) Coldplay's Viva la Vida

(3) Bill James' 2009 Bill James Handbook

As you can tell from the title of this post, I received only one of these gifts... and for that I am thankful.

Nothing against Josh Hamilton or Chris Martin and the guys of Coldplay, I'm sure their respective products are great (and Grammy-nominated in some cases), but Bill James' 2009 Handbook is a priceless necessity to my fantasy baseball preparation.

Now, I don't expect everyone to begin their fantasy prep at the beginning of January, but, in all honestly, I couldn't wait to dive into James' predictions and see what he's forecasting for a few batters in 2009.

Two days ago, I started my journey through pages and pages of statistics.  Who would be this year's Carlos Quentin?  Who would be this year's Robinson Cano?  Who did I forget about already?

To say the least, any free moment I had in the past few days as been devoted to sitting in an uncomfortable chair, hunching over my copy of The Bill James Handbook, and crunching numbers in search of a few diamonds in the rough.

Over the next few days, I'm going to remind you all of a few players you should re-familiarize yourself with in the months leading up to Spring Training.  Before, I do this, however, I want to give you an indication of the scoring system for my fantasy league.  This is seen below:

I'll throw of the pitching categories later on... but for now, I'm focusing strictly on the offensive side of the playing field.  The rundown of events will begin today with Catchers, followed by First basemen, Second, Third, Short, OF, and Utility.  Again, all my statistical projections will be derived from those of Bill James and his team, so stay tuned.

***Addendum***

Fantasy Baseball Prep: Catchers

Fantasy Baseball Prep: First Base

Fantasy Baseball Prep: Second Base

Fantasy Baseball Prep: Third Base

Fantasy Baseball Prep: Shortstop

Fantasy Baseball Prep: Outfield

Carlos Quentin: 2008 Surprise? Not According to the Numbers

It's incredible how out-of-no-where Carlos Quentin has been in 2008... or has it? Last year, Quentin was receiving the same hype leading into 2007 that Hunter Pence received going into this season. In 2005 Quentin knocked out 21 home runs in Triple-A Tuscan on the Diamondbacks' farm, all the while batting .301 with an OPS over .900. After that season, scouts and fans alike were drooling over this 23-year old's potential. Baseball Prospectus said Quentin's 2005 numbers were a true testament to his ability, as he was fresh off Tommy John surgery in the previous season. BP's 2006 projection: 15 homers, .268 BA, and a OPS over .800. Not a bad projection for a rookie outfielder in a then-empty D-Backs line-up.

Baseball Think Factory's ZiPS projected Quentin to knock out 15 home runs, bat .269, to the tune of a .778 OPS. Again, not too bad a projection for a guy who, up until that point, had never seen a major league pitch. As it turns out, Quentin received little time in the Majors in 2006. His combined numbers between Triple-A and the MLB: 18 homers, a .276 BA, with a .912 OPS in Triple-A and a .872 OPS in the Majors.

While the batting average was not fantastic... let's be honest with ourselves, that's pretty damn impressive for a rookie. Combine that with the .872 OPS, and you have yourself a nice looking prospect.

In the 2007 edition of Baseball Prospectus, the projections were on the conservative side (not that I am ever expecting Matthew Berry-esque projections from the folks at BP): 18 homers, .285 BA, and a .872 OPS. Essentially the BP team was expecting more the same from Quentin in the OPS department (more slanted toward the OBP than the SLG%) with an increase in BA. They didn't really offer an explaination, but they didn't really need to either. Quentin was, at best, going to be splitting time with guys like Chad Tracy, (an unproven) Eric Byrnes, Scott Hairston, and two high-end prospects named Justin Upton and Chris Young. Essentially, Quentin's talent was going to be strangled by platoons in

2007.

Ron Shandler, more-less, sided with the BP experts: 20 homers, .275, and .841. For Shandler, however, Quentin's "power may arrive before [batting average], but both are on the way." So, depending on which book you place your trust in, Quentin was either going to see an increase in batting average (BP) or power (Shandler).

What happened? Both were wrong. Quentin suffered a torn labrum in the early goings of 2007 and never really got back on track. Both his power (9 homers) and batting average (.258) fell and left both our experts turned off (BP: 11-.263-.788, Shandler: 12-.262-.754). What both sources may have dismissed as 'fluke' was Quentin's SLG% of .400 in 2007...

Now, obviously, hind-sight is 20-20 and Quentin, after being dealt from the D-Backs (who had no room for him anyway) to the Chicago White Sox, is absolutely raking. As I am writing this, he just hit his 12th home run of the year, putting him on a pace for more than 40 in 2008. His OBP is in David Ortiz's realm at 1.004 and he's hitting over .300 while batting 2nd in a potent White Sox line-up.

Quentin went through, what I like to call, the "Hank Blalock Effect (named after Blalock who, after being hyped like nobody's business in 2001, failed to meet expectations in 2002-- Only before breaking out without warning in 2003 after he was left on the scrap heap by fans and analysts). Is Quentin going to keep this pace up? Probably not. But it's still great to see him rising like a phoenix (no Arizona pun intended) this season for both White Sox fans and for fantasy baseball owners. Like Blalock in 2003, it's going to be hard for this guy to keep this pace up... but that doesn't mean you shouldn't enjoy it while it lasts.

Coping With Soriano's Calf Injury: OPS Replacements

Seriously, who hops around while catching a fly ball? For those who did not witness Alfonso Soriano straining his calf muscle on Tuesday night in Chicago firsthand, it looked as though he was readying himself to turn a double play at second base. We’ve witnessed his unorthodox sidearm/sub-marine throwing motion in left field, but the whole dancing around an imaginary second base is unacceptable. All Lou Pinella can say is: "It seems like a natural move for him." No way, Lou… maybe that’s because people have been fooling themselves thinking he belongs in the outfield. Now before anyone busts out his outfield assist numbers over the past few years, answer this: Would you not try to run on a converted second baseman? Of course you would! Soriano surprised some people and raked up the stats in the process. There’s no way he and superior defenders like Jose Guillen, Ichiro, and Melky Cabrera should be in the same category.

However, that rant is for another day. By now, I’m sure you can tell that Alfonso Soriano is on my fantasy team and I’m quite ‘miffed’ about his potential DL stint. For anyone who’s looking for a potential replacement for Sori, I’ve come up with a few names who you may be able to trade for or pick up off waivers in the meanwhile. For regular readers of this blog, you know I’m working with Johnny Damon and Andruw Jones on my roster. I also have Rick Ankiel and Grady Sizemore to cycle through as well, so I’m not in the worst shape in the OF, but I’m still on the prowl for a hot bat to insert in my active lineup over hot/cold players like Jones and Damon.

For OPS fiends (like my main man Mike Plugh), I’ve looked back at Soriano’s three year average OPS (2005-07) .874 and compared it to other similar OPS’ over that span. Here are a couple names that jumped out at me:

Luke Scott, BAL: This kid is off to a hot start with the AL East leading O’s so far. He’s hitting .386(BA)-.449(OBP)-.614(SLG) which is entirely respectable for a stopgap player. In his last six games, four of his seven hits have been doubles, which explains the slugging percentage being this high. Could those doubles eventually become home runs? Well, he does play in Camden Yards, so anything is possible. For as good as he’s been playing, you’re not going to get any stolen bases from Scott. He has less than 50 in five years in the minor leagues, so any SBs that come from him are going to be a freak accident.

Bill Hall, MIL: Obviously, this guy is not going to be available in your league, but he may be worth trading for in this instance. Soriano was probably an early pick for you this year and your team is going to struggle without him. So far, Hall his hitting to a tune of .204-.218-.519 and was extremely undervalued entering 2008. So what does this tell us? Well, he’s not taking pitches enough to walk, BUT when he makes contact, it’s usually for more than a single. It looks like he’d be murdering your Roto team, but points leagues may want to take a flyer on him. If his 3-year average is in line with Sori’s, there’s a potential for these numbers to rise as the year rolls along.

Chris Duncan (and Ryan Ludwick), StL: Dear Lord they’re so streaky. Duncan is the player who came up when I ran a 3-year average of OPS, but Ludwick has been just plan crazy for the first two and a half weeks. Staying with Duncan for the time being, his OPS is at .900 for 2008 and, like his brother Shelley, he can go nuts with the long ball for weeks at a time. The whole question with Duncan, though, is health. Well… right now, he’s healthier than Soriano… and that’s all you need to know at the moment. Back to Ludwick, he’s definitely going to be available, but I wouldn’t dive all over him unless you’re in a really, really deep league (I’m thinking 14-16 teams).

So those are three players (technically 4…) who jumped out at me in the 3-year OPS search. Below are a few waiver-wire hotshots who did not show up on that search who you should take a look at in your league:

Nate McLouth, Pit: His OPS is over 1.000 right now, which is Big Papi-esque. He’s a great fill-in for Soriano… but he’s probably already been picked up in your league. I slept on him because he’s a Buck-O, so I’m not going to completely tear you apart for letting him slip through the cracks.

Carlos Quentin, ChW: The anti-Nate McLouth. His OPS is hovering around .750, which is respectable, especially hitting in White Sox potent line up. However, he’s not getting regular ABs, which frustrates me. I was one of the people who thought Quentin was going to explode with the D-Backs last year… and I guess I am still optimistic that this may occur with the ChiSox. Don’t dive on him now… but please monitor him.

Moises Alou, NYM: Every year he’s underrated because of injury and every year he goes nuts when he’s healthy. Unless you’re playing with multiple Met fans in your league, Alou’s probably buried in waivers right now. He’s not going to be a fill-in for Soriano because he’ll be starting up his rehab assignment this weekend. But don’t let another owner in your league pick up a guy who’s OPS has been over .900 over the past four years… I don’t want to see that happen to you.