Shin-Soo Choo: 2009's Rick Ankiel?

Okay, wipe the coffee you just spit out off your monitor...

If you're asking yourself who's Shin-Soo Choo, then you're in dire-straights before the season even begins.  Choo, a former starting pitcher in the Seattle Mariner's farm system, converted to outfielder after a copious amount of arm problems in the minors and has thrived since his trade to Cleveland.

What I found most interesting about Choo's extended call-up in 2008 (361 plate-appearances), was the fact that his OPS (.924) topped Hanley Ramirez, Chase Utley, Carlos Lee, and Josh Hamilton, just to name a few.  Does this mean Choo's going to top these guys?  No!  Of course that's not the case, but 2008 may be an indicator that a breakout is on the horizon for Choo in 2009.

Looking back to 2007, there was another converted-outfielder who put up a high-OPS (.863)in limited plate-appearances.  His name:  Rick Ankiel.  In 2008, Ankiel continued more-of-the-same in his PA's with a .843 OPS.  Ankiel, like Choo, played in a hitter's park and eventually found himself in the middle of the line-up with Albert Pujols somewhere nearby.

Taking a look at Choo's projected points/plate-appearance (formula offered here), he's expected to do much better than some "names" who will be drafted before him:

Bill James:  .842 pts/pa

CBS Sports:   .841 pts/pa

MARCEL:  .875 pts/pa

For Bill James, Choo should be expected to outperform the likes of Jermaine Dye (.83), Andre Ethier (.82), Nick Swisher (.81), Hideki Matsui (.80), Vernon Wells (.80), and Johnny Damon (80) in a points-based fantasy baseball league.  Now, I like the comparables here, BUT the oddball in this equation has to be Andre Ethier.  Like Choo, he's a younger (27) and in everyone's favorite "breakout" age.  Due to the fact that Ethier is guaranteed much more playing time, I would elevate him a bit out of the group of mediocrity where Bill James places him.

Moving on to CBS Sports, Choo's fantasy output (.841) is similar to those of Alex Rios (.841) and Torii Hunter (.841), two guys who will be drafted light-years before anyone even considers giving Choo the time of day.  

MARCEL provides the most favorable points/plate-appearance projection for Choo (.87); placing him in the top-20 OVERALL.  That's right.  Choo denied Chase Utley a finish in the Top-20 (Utley was 21... not bad).

Of all the players Choo weighs in above, one thing is for certain: your outfield CAN be built late.  In a draft where you're more concerned with position eligibility, be sure to have post it with "Shin-Soo Choo" written on it somewhere in your notes.  He has the potential to hit 20-25 home runs for Cleveland in 2009 while maintaining a ~.300 BA.

That all said, don't rely on him as a guaranteed 3rd outfielder in your league.  Draft him as a high-end 4th and watch what happens.  I'm not saying he's going to be the next Carlos Quentin, but you could definitely do a lot worse than having the 2009 version of Rick Ankiel at your disposal.

(Side-note:  If you believe in the "Age-27" Breakout Theory... then Choo's also turning 27 this season.  Enjoy.)

Fantasy Baseball Prep: Second Base

A new day, a new position. Let’s continue our trip around the diamond with a rather deep crop of second basemen. Again, just for clarification purposes, you can find the key for a generic points-based Fantasy Baseball league in the introductory post to this series.

If you missed out of my analysis of the players to key in on for both catchers and first basemen, you can follow the links provided or navigate the side bar.

All that said, let’s jump right into our Slugging% indicator (points-per-opportunity) and take a look at who may be stepping up as a masher in 2009. The range for this list starts with Aaron Miles (1.87) who just recently signed on with the Cubs as a starting second baseman (though I don’t think it will last, personally) and ends with Alexei Ramirez (2.60), who began his breakout year at the later part of the 2008 season with the Chicago White Sox. Though Ramirez will be Chicago’s starting Shortstop in 2009, he’ll maintain his second base eligibility from 2008… so be sure to take advantage of this on your draft boards.

For this statistic, 2.21 was the average for second basemen. Obviously the heavy hitters like Chase Utley (2.55), Ian Kinsler (2.53), and Dan Uggla (2.51) were all a good distance above the average. Why? Well, mainly because they’re making the most of their opportunities. Utley and Uggla both hit a ton of home runs (for second basemen, anyway) and Kinsler gives you a nice 25-25 option at a position that doesn’t offer that mixture all the time.

The average second baseman in this instance was Brian Roberts (2.21), exemplifying exactly what I was hinting with Kinsler. Roberts walks a good amount and hits a lot of singles. However, because he plays in a rather anemic Orioles line-up he doesn’t score a ton of runs. To make up for this, Roberts must steal a ton of bases to make the most of his opportunity. Dustin Pedroia (2.218) places right above Roberts. Pedroia, last season’s AL MVP, does have the benefit of hitting in a line-up that scores a ton of runs. However, Pedroia doesn’t walk, doesn’t steal; bases, and bats in a spot with minimal RBI opportunities. His singles, doubles, and run scoring potential all combine to provide your team with a serviceable, average slugging second baseman in points-based fantasy leagues.

When we make the shift from PTS/OPP. to PTS/PA (points-per-plate-appearance), we see a few familiar names topping the list with Utley (.93), Kinsler (.90), Ramirez (.85), and Dan Uggla (.849). At the bottom of this list, again, sits Aaron Miles, who’s probably not even drafting himself in his own fantasy league… so you should probably follow suit and do the same thing.

Our “average” group of players contains two annually overrated bats at this position and one generally underrated bate. Starting with the bad, Jeff Kent (.73) and Robinson Cano (.75) flank an underrated Kaz Matsui (.74). Again, as a veteran fantasy player, you know that Kent and Cano are going to go early. Whether it be the “consistency” of Kent of the “potential” of Cano, they’ll be over hyped going into 2009 Fantasy Baseball drafts. Kaz, on the other hand, will probably NOT be drafted in most leagues, despite the similar output you should expect from him.

While scanning this list, there’s a few things that jumped out at me. First is the Colorado second base situation. Last year, Jayson Nix sucked the morale and life out of the position with his “great defense” while fending off potential sleepers Ian Stewart and Jeff Baker. While Stewart has the greatest potential of the three, Bill James provides both he and Baker with identical pts/pa outputs at .817.

In the grand scheme of things, Baker and Stewart are both ranked ahead of annual fantasy starters (not to be confused with “fantasy stars”) Brian Roberts (.80), Brandon Phillips (.78), Howie Kendrick (.80), and Kelly Johnson (.81). Now, I’ve never been a huge fan of Kelly Johnson and Howie Kendrick’s injury-problems have broken my heart one-too-many times. But I am a big fan of both Brian Roberts and Brandon Phillips and was surprised to see the tandem of Stewart and Baker ranked ahead of them for 2009.

All this said, second base seems like a great position to sit on in 2009. Let your competition make uo your mind for you. If you’re forced into taking a risk on a Jeff Kent or Cano while filling out the rest of your roster with better players, make sure to grab Stewart, Baker, or both while the Rockies (hopefully) come to their senses and goes with one of these offensive threats as a regular in 2009.

Fantasy Baseball Prep: Catchers

Using The Bill James Handbook as my primary resource, I calculated the point totals for each player in the Catcher position based on the table I posted earlier.  

In 2009, I feel like there's going to be a number of new catchers entering the forefront.  For the most part, these players are those who were once in a platoon or are rookies/second-year players who finally reached the bigs.  In order to gauge what their "point-potential" may be for 2009, I created two new categories: "points per opportunity" and "points per plate appearance."  

Essentially, points per opportunity (pts/opp.) is the number of points each player makes when doing something ASIDE from making an out.  This statistic divides the total number of points by the hits and walks of a given player.  For me, this statistic is the SLG% of a points-based fantasy league.  You're able to see who does the most when they connect.  The average PTS/OPP. in this instance was 2.22.

Benjie Molina (2.22), Kenji Johjima (2.23), Ramon Hernandez (2.23), and A.J. Pierzynski (2.21) are all examples of an average player using this statistic.

While Johjima wasn't a starting catcher in my fantasy league last year, I'm surprised to see players who were (Molina, Hernandez, and Pierzynski) lumped in the same group.  What does this tell us?  Not that Johjima is going to bounce back... rather, that 2009 may represent a changing of the guard at catcher.

This isn't totally surprising to me.  The average age of starters at the catcher position has increased every year (I know, that sounds logical and stupid), rather than staying the same.  The reason that I suggest that it's not as "stupid" as it seems is due to the fact that older catchers should be breaking down and younger catchers should be taking their spots.  A couple things prevent this from happening.  First, there are longer contracts being signed by catchers.  In the list above, Johjima, Hernandez, and Molina are all examples of this.  Let's also not forget players like Jorge Posada, who signed a lucrative deal last off-season, and Jason Varitek, who's about to do the same.  Second, catchers are losing their offensive ability before their defense ability.  Exemplifying this are Pudge Rodriguez, the aforementioned Benjie Molina, and Jason Kendell.

Moving to our second and, in my opinion, more-telling statistic, points-per-plate-appearance (PTS/PA) we take a look at the OPS of points-based leagues.  This statistic shows us the number of points each player should accrue each time they step to the plate.  To find this number, I divided the points total of each player by their at-bats (AB) and walks (BB).

The average, in this case, was .74 PTS/PA.  Jeff Clement, Chris Snyder, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia were the three players who represented the "average" in this category.  Personally, I'm so happy about one of the names that this formula spit out.  If you're like me, you've considered Jarrod Saltalamacchia nothing but a long name and nothing else.  Year-after-year I see this guy drafted before the Ryan Doumit's and Chris Iannetta's of the league and can't help but scratch my head...  This statistic has justified what I've thought all along, "Salty's" nothing but an average player at this point in his career.

Toping this list is, not-surprisingly, Mike Napoli, who should get regular AB's for the Angels in 2009.  The problem with Napoli has never been his consistency at the plate... in fact, he's mashed whenever he's been healthy-enough to do so.  Bill James' projection reveals a .93 PTS/PA for Napoli.  To put that in perspective, the other players with a .93 PTS/PA are Manny Ramirez, Evan Longoria, and Chase Utley.  Household name much?

Of the top-tier of catchers, Brian McCann (.87) is the only player listed in the Top-5 (Russell Martin is #7, Victor Martinez is #14, and Jorge Posada is #13).  With this known, I would wait until Russell Martin is drafted to pick up McCann.  I say this because, I feel that people are beginning to sour on the injury issues surrounding Victor Martinez and Jorge Posada.  While both players bat in high-powered line-ups, I think their age and injury problems are enough to turn off a healthy portion of "informed" fantasy owners.