Nick Blackburn Update: Still Good

Brief post time:

I was able to watch his game against the Brewers and noticed something: his good starts are effortless. He didn't strike out a ton of batters (two). In fact, he was underwhelming in the strikeout department. But his fantasy owners shouldn't be expecting that at this point. Blackburn and Twins' manager Ron Gardenhire have said repeatedly that this is a classic "pitch to contact" starter.

Looking to my last Blackburn post (Nick Blackburn is Actually Good) there may be an interesting trend starting up:

First, Blackburn pitched his second consecutive complete game. Yes, it was in loss. But Blackburn has pitched a combined 25 innings in his last three starts. For every fantasy "expert" who claims this guy should be dealt really needs to check themselves. Listening to the Twins' announce team tonight, every member stated not only that Blackburn's record hasn't truly reflected how good he is... but he's pitched BETTER than staff "ace" Kevin Slowey.

Second, Blackburn's defense let him down BIG TIME tonight. Joe Mauer's off-target throw into left field (over Joe Crede's head) cost the Twins and Blackburn the win tonight. I know, I know... I praised the Twins defense in my last post... but I think that's more the reason to buy into Blackburn. This isn't something that will happen often.

Lastly, if there's an owner in your league that's looking to deal Blackburn right now, you should consider making an offer. I'm not saying this is a top-of-the-order stud, but he's an awesome, awesome 4th or 5th starter in any league... especially when he's facing a two-start week (LIKE NEXT WEEK!!!).

Enough of me proving myself correct for now... just a weekly "Nick Blackburn Rocking" update.

Week 11 Update: Nick Blackburn is Actually "Good"

I was reading an article at Sportsfrog.com a little while ago... it demanded that I trade Nick Blackburn.  Bronto, the author, suggests:

"Blackburn has benefited from a better-than average BABIP, which stood at .278 before today’s game compared to last season’s .308 BABIP. And he’s walking more hitters too. After walking just 39 last year, Blackburn has walked 25 people this season after walking just 39 in 2008."

Yes, this is all 100% accurate.  However, with this all know, do we think anyone would be willing to deal anything for Blackburn and if so, what?  Personally, I don't think you're going to pull the wool over anyone's eyes if you're in a competitive league.  Blackburn is what he is: a nice option in mixed-leagues and a really, really good option in AL-Only leagues.

...and though everything Bronto said was accurate, I'm not ready to sell on Blackburn yet.  I look at his GB-rate and think there may be something more here.  The Twins have historically preached speed and defense to their position players.  This is blatantly obvious in the fact that the Twins lead baseball with only 24 Errors allows all year!  It's mind-boggling, but it's true.  With that all said, why not take a chance on a kid who's decreasing his HR/FB rate and pitching to a better-than-50% GB rate?

My point is that Blackburn's BABIP is so low because his GB Rate is so steady and his HR/FB is severely decreased from what it was last year.  As Brian Pietrzak suggests in his "Inside Nick Blackburn's last five starts," Blackburn's reputation is a bit misleading:

"Blackburn has garnered a reputation as a "fly-ball pitcher," especially from Twins' announcers Bert Blyleven and Dick Bremer. However, Blackburn's ground ball to fly ball ratio is 1.21 through his first 13 starts of 2009. As a contrast, Carlos Silva was often considered by many, including Blyleven and Bremer, to be a "sinkerball pitcher" who induced many ground balls. In his final season as a Twin in 2007, Silva had a ground ball to fly ball ratio of 1.41."

In the end, it comes down to whether or not YOU like Blackburn.  You can find all the stats in the world to support either side as Bronto and Pietrzak deliver above.  For me, I say stick with him.  Let him ride your bench next week and throw him in for two-starts in Week 13.  Unless the Twins trade their top-flight defenders, I'd expect more of the same.

God Bless You Glen Perkins

Any goober (like myself) that didn't dive all over Jonathan Broxton when Takashi Saito injured his arm last week was in a bit of a pickle for this shortened week.  A few days ago, I gave one short term solution.  This solution wasn't going to get you any saves, he probably wasn't going to get you any strikeouts, in fact, he probably wasn't going to do much... other than pitch beautifully against one of the most fierce offenses in the Majors.

This man is Glen Perkins, the sole recommendation I gave for Saito owners this past week.  Last night, Perkins did his best to make me look like a genius for giving him the nod against Josh "The Great Hambino" Hamilton and the Texas Rangers.

Anyone who took that advice got this nice little stat line added to their Box Score for the week:

6 Innings Pitched, 0 Earned Runs, 3 Hits, 3 Walks, 1 Strike out, and 1 Win

Okay, so he didn't set the world on fire, but he helped your ERA with 6 shut out innings and a 'W' never hurts.  In points-leagues, he was more than serviceable accruing a respectable number for your team, despite not having very many strike outs.

For now...  It's time to say 'Good-Bye' to Glen.  That's right, I want you to drop Glen Perkins from your team.  You have to always remember what some experts refer to as the "Shawn Chacon Rule:" DON'T CHASE WINS!

More second half pitching recommendations to come soon.