Nick Swisher: 2009's Carlos Quentin?

Well... not quite Carlos Quentin (Swisher will not hit 40 bombs this year), but in Fantasy terms, Nick Swisher's initial value (nothing) and long-term value (high-end #2 outfielder) match-up well to Quentin's 2008 Fantasy Baseball Odyssey.  

What makes Swish so valuable this early in the season was the severe lack of respectable first basemen in last month's draft.  His dual eligibility (1B and OF)  makes him particularly attractive in leagues that have little to no room on a team's bench.

All prep aside, let's take a look at what makes Swisher's 2009 "Quentin Worthy:"

Above, we see Nick Swisher's major league numbers.  It's hard to believe, but this guys only been in the Majors for just over 4 years.  Looking over his career, Swisher obviously had his "career-year" in his sophomore 2006, when he almost slugged at a .500 clip.  Since then, his SLG% has fallen dramatically, resulting in last year's .410 result with the Chicago White Sox.

Now, we all know Swisher's bread-and-butter is his on-base percentage... but even that was down in 2008, which begs the question:  "What the hell happened in '08?"

Well, to start, Swisher's BABIP fell over 50 points last year, pointing to shitty luck as an immediate culprit in his horrendous 2008.  As Yahoo! Sports' Matt Buser notes in a February 2007 article, "One of the most interesting things about [BABIP] is that it's widely acknowledged that luck plays a part in each player's BABIP. For hitters, there are three things that play a large part: skill, speed, and luck."

Furthermore, Buser's ambiguous notion that "skill" plays a role in BABIP eliminates any subsequent discussion about Swisher's apparent skill, so I'm not going to even go there.  But it doesn't take a brain surgeon to realize that Nick Swisher is a slow guy.  Again, assuming Swisher has "decent" skill, we have a 1-1 split coming down to luck as the deciding factor.

So me... Swisher was just "unlucky" in 2008.  Much like Quentin's 2007, Swisher was viewed as a 4th outfielder and a back-up first baseman on a team that already featured two (Jim Thome and Paul Konerko).  Essentially, Nick Swisher had nowhere to play.

His fate seemed similar with his new team, the New York Yankees, as the team vowed to use Brett Gardner in CF rather than the defensively inept Swisher.  This made Swish the number one back-up for Johnny Damon in left, Xavier Nady in right, and Mark Teixeira at first.

That is... until about 2 hours ago when news broke that Xavier Nady will likely miss the remainder of 2009 with a torn elbow ligament.

Now it's Swisher's turn to prove that he's worthy of a full-season of at-bats.  Let's not forget... it was Carlos Quentin's white-hot start that placed Nick Swisher in a "back-up" role as a member of the White Sox.  Now, in a ironic twist, Swisher finds himself in a similar position.

During the off-season, I compiled an average "projected points" list using Bill James' Handbook, Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster, MARCEL, ZiPS, and ESPN.  This conglomerate projects Nick Swisher's 488.9 points to outscore fellow outfielders Shane Victorino (484), Vernon Wells (475), Jayson Werth (451) and Rick Ankiel (453).  He also places above first basemen Paul Konerko (471), Connor Jackson (481), and Carlos Guillen (451). 

To say the least, Swisher is a must-add bat right now... ESPECIALLY batting in the middle of the Yankees' potent line-up.  Feel free to confidently add him to your starting line-up for the next scoring period.

Fantasy Baseball Prep: First Base

Part Two of this multi-part mini-series brings us to First Base.  Again, for an introduction to this series, feel free to click here for a break down of the point system.  

Also, if you missed out on the rather telling "Fantasy Baseball Prep: Catchers" post from yesterday evening, feel free to either scroll down or follow the above link to the post's location.

To begin, I want to rehash the two statistical formulas that I am incorporating into my research this year:  points-per-opportunity (pts/opp) and points-per-plate-appearance (pts/pa).  Essentially the two categories boil down like this, pts/opp is the Slugging% for points-based fantasy baseball leagues and pts/pa represents the OPS for points-based fantasy leagues.

With that said, let's start with the slugging and make our way to the OPS.  The range of pts/opp. was pretty vast.  The low (1.54 pts/opp) was Daric Barton, who coincidently may have lost his job today with the A's signing of Jason Giambi to a 1-year contract.  The high (2.68) went to, you guessed it, Ryan Howard.  The average for first basemen was 2.31 points/opp.  

That places a few familiar a a few unfamiliar names at the average point position in this slugging category.  The first, a maybe-surprising / maybe-not, player is Derrek Lee (2.26), who's seen his overall production decline dramatically over the past two seasons.  Below Lee is Kevin Youkilis (2.25), who had a break-out season in 2008, and Ryan Garko (2.24), the Indians' over-hyped first baseman.

While Garko is where I would expect him to be, some may be surprised by the presence of Youkilis among the "below-average" points/oppertunity crowd.  To that I say, take a look at the numbers.  2.25 pts/opp. is not a bad total at all for someone... especially someone dubbed the "Greek God of Walks."  Think about it.  That means that for every walk Youkilis takes in 2009, he should be expect to (a) score a run, or (b) steal a base... then get caught stealing.  Obviously, option-A is a bit more likely to occur in a line-up as potent as that of the Red Sox.

Above Derrek Lee (our Mason-Dixon line for the purposes of this post) are two virtual unknowns: Kendry Morales (2.28) and John Bowker (2.34).  

The aforementioned Bowker may be a bit of a long shot.  Especially if the Giants sign Joe Crede and shift Pablo Sandoval from 3B to 1B in 2009.  Though Bowker is obviously capable of putting up respecitble points with the increase of opportunity, the Giants may opt for a discounted rate on Crede and give the 25 year-old more time in the minors.

Kendry Morales, on the other hand, is in line to be the Angels' starting first baseman in 2009.  When the Halo's traded Casey Kotchman for a virtual rent-a-player in Mark Teixeira, you had to think that L.A. had some-sort of "ace" up their sleeve.  In this case, the ace was Kendry Morales.  Now, don't get me wrong... the Angels would've loved to bring Teixeira back to to L.A., but Morales may provide a considerable more pop from the 3-spot than Casey Kotchman EVER did during his time with the Halo's.

Moving on from our first base mashers, let's take a look at a few OPS superstars for points-based fantasy baseball leagues.  The top-dog in the yard is everyone's favorite Cardinal, Albert Pujols (1.06).  I'm sorry.  But if you have a player who's averaging a point per plate appearance... you should thank your lucky stars on a night basis.  Pujols and Ryan Howard (1.00) are the only first basemen who top the 1-point threshold... which is absurd.  It doesn't take a rocket scientist to tell you that if you can get your hands on one of these fantasy-monsters... pull the trigger and get in while the getting's good.

The average players in this category surround Adrian Gonzalez (.83).  Below Gonzalez are seriously, a bunch of fantasy scrubs.  The first two are Paul Konerko (.82) and Adam LaRoche (.81), both of whom, as everyone who's owned them know, are hugely overrated at this point in their careers.

To me, the best value in the Top-12 in the pts/pa category is Joey Votto (.91), who places above perennial All-Stars Justin Morneau (.86), Kevin Youkilis (.85), and Carlos Pena (.87).  Also, a bit above Votto is everyone's favorite vegan, Prince Fielder (.91) and new hundred-million-dollar-man, Mark Teixeira (.95).

To say the least, you could probably draft Votto 5 rounds (if not more) behind the majority of these first basemen.  If you're a Bill James supporter, look for Joey V. to bust it out in '09, and be a regular contributer for both the Reds and your fantasy baseball team.