Shin-Soo Choo: 2009's Rick Ankiel?

Okay, wipe the coffee you just spit out off your monitor...

If you're asking yourself who's Shin-Soo Choo, then you're in dire-straights before the season even begins.  Choo, a former starting pitcher in the Seattle Mariner's farm system, converted to outfielder after a copious amount of arm problems in the minors and has thrived since his trade to Cleveland.

What I found most interesting about Choo's extended call-up in 2008 (361 plate-appearances), was the fact that his OPS (.924) topped Hanley Ramirez, Chase Utley, Carlos Lee, and Josh Hamilton, just to name a few.  Does this mean Choo's going to top these guys?  No!  Of course that's not the case, but 2008 may be an indicator that a breakout is on the horizon for Choo in 2009.

Looking back to 2007, there was another converted-outfielder who put up a high-OPS (.863)in limited plate-appearances.  His name:  Rick Ankiel.  In 2008, Ankiel continued more-of-the-same in his PA's with a .843 OPS.  Ankiel, like Choo, played in a hitter's park and eventually found himself in the middle of the line-up with Albert Pujols somewhere nearby.

Taking a look at Choo's projected points/plate-appearance (formula offered here), he's expected to do much better than some "names" who will be drafted before him:

Bill James:  .842 pts/pa

CBS Sports:   .841 pts/pa

MARCEL:  .875 pts/pa

For Bill James, Choo should be expected to outperform the likes of Jermaine Dye (.83), Andre Ethier (.82), Nick Swisher (.81), Hideki Matsui (.80), Vernon Wells (.80), and Johnny Damon (80) in a points-based fantasy baseball league.  Now, I like the comparables here, BUT the oddball in this equation has to be Andre Ethier.  Like Choo, he's a younger (27) and in everyone's favorite "breakout" age.  Due to the fact that Ethier is guaranteed much more playing time, I would elevate him a bit out of the group of mediocrity where Bill James places him.

Moving on to CBS Sports, Choo's fantasy output (.841) is similar to those of Alex Rios (.841) and Torii Hunter (.841), two guys who will be drafted light-years before anyone even considers giving Choo the time of day.  

MARCEL provides the most favorable points/plate-appearance projection for Choo (.87); placing him in the top-20 OVERALL.  That's right.  Choo denied Chase Utley a finish in the Top-20 (Utley was 21... not bad).

Of all the players Choo weighs in above, one thing is for certain: your outfield CAN be built late.  In a draft where you're more concerned with position eligibility, be sure to have post it with "Shin-Soo Choo" written on it somewhere in your notes.  He has the potential to hit 20-25 home runs for Cleveland in 2009 while maintaining a ~.300 BA.

That all said, don't rely on him as a guaranteed 3rd outfielder in your league.  Draft him as a high-end 4th and watch what happens.  I'm not saying he's going to be the next Carlos Quentin, but you could definitely do a lot worse than having the 2009 version of Rick Ankiel at your disposal.

(Side-note:  If you believe in the "Age-27" Breakout Theory... then Choo's also turning 27 this season.  Enjoy.)

Fantasy Baseball Prep: Castigated Outfielders

Now that the Bill James-enhanced Fantasy Baseball Prep Chapter has finally come to a close, I've been shifting through CBS Sports and Marcel projections over the past few days to really key in on the "popular" choices for breakout players and potential slumping players for the 2009 season.

While I continue working through this, however, I wanted to write a bit about someone who's name I've seen brought up quite a bit on the message boards and who I didn't really mentioned in my outfield prep post.  Again, it's worth mentioning that an "average" outfielder has a Fantasy Points / Plate Appearance of 0.81 pts/pa.

The Nationals' Elijah Dukes had a problem getting opportunities in 2008.  This has to do with a number of issues: first, he has a horrible attitude (best example came against the Mets at mid-season when he felt Mike Pelfrey was throwing at him...), second, he has a problem with consistency, and third, he has enough off-field issues to last multiple seasons.

So why the hype?  Why are owners, in the cold of January, hyping someone who may not even be a regular for the Nationals in 2009?

Bill James: 0.89 pts/pa

CBS Sports: 0.83 pts/pa

Marcel: 0.82 pts/pa

I guess that about sums it up...

While Dukes isn't head-and-shoulders above average, he has shown the potential to be if given the at-bats.  Two years ago, while working for WFUV as a Yankees' beat reporter, I bumped into Dukes, then a member of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.  Now, I've seen some big baseball players, but Dukes is one of the biggest guys on the field.  If talent were determined by the shier size of a player, Dukes would be among the tops in the game.  However, for some reason, he's yet to "put it all together" (you've heard this so many times before... but I truly believe it when it comes to a guy with, seemingly, all the tools, like Dukes).

So, who should you look to rank Dukes ahead of, if given the ABs?

Marcel projects Dukes' .82 pts/pa ahead of Hunter Pence (.81), Eric Byrnes (.80), Mike Cameron (.79), and Shane Victorino (.79) -- most of whom will be drafted in points leagues (especially if strikeouts are of a minimal penalty).

For CBS Sports, Dukes barely edges Vernon Wells (.82), while also placing ahead of Jacoby Ellsbury (.81), Johnny Damon (.81), and Hunter Pence (again).

Bill James provides the most liberal, abstruse projections with Dukes' .89 pts/pa topping those of Bobby Abreu (.88), Nate McLouth (.87), Curtis Granderson (.86), Magglio Ordonez (.85), and Pat Burrell (.84), just to name a few (of the guys who will DEFINITELY be drafted before Dukes).

When all is said and done, the most you can do (at this point, anyway) is wait and see what happens in Spring Training for the Nats.  As of now, they're rolling into the season with Lastings Milledge, Wily Mo Pena, Josh Willingham, Austin Kearns, and Dukes... while also being rumored to have interest in free agent Adam Dunn and the Yankees' Xavier Nady.  Now, I was never adroit to numbers games, but I don't think you're going to have very much sucess fitting upwards of 7 major leaguers in 3 outfield spots.

To conclude, there's a bit too many pieces to this puzzle to derail my circumspect approach to a player like Dukes.  I know a lot of fantasy participants out there love him, and it's not hard to see why... but until Adam Dunn signs with another team, the Yankees trade Nady to the Mariners/Pirates, Josh Willingham converts back to catcher, and Wily Mo Pena retires... I'm going to remain an innocent bystander even with the risk of being burned by Elijah Dukes.

Fantasy Baseball Prep: Outfield

Far and away, the outfield portion of this series is the most mind-boggling.  Each day, before sitting down to write my latest post, I take a look at the spread sheet to see what names pop out at me as "strange."  Not "strange" in the fact that it's unfathomable that a players be ranked so highly, but "strange" that I didn't think of this without the guidance of stats and numbers.

Today, however, "strange" refers to the former.

For this reason, I'm going to analyze this position the same way I did for catcher, first base, second base, third base, and shortstop before pointing out a few outliers that found their way(s) "in."

Starting with our first statistical category, points-per-opportunity (see introductory chapter for a rundown of statistics and formulas), Ryan Braun (2.92 pts/opp.) reigns supreme.  In fact, Braun tops every statistical category I've created for the purposes of this blog series.  It's safe to say that Bill James has crowned Braun as the "cream of the crop" in 2009.

Behind Braun, filling out the top-three, are Alfonso Soriano (2.77) and Marcus Thames (2.76).  I can't say I'm too surprised with the top-three.  Soriano rakes when healthy... but that's been a bit of a problem for him recently (many Cubs' fans know about his "hopping" problem in the outfield).  Thames, on the other hand, is projected to hit only 22 more singles than home runs in limited at-bats.  He's not quite up to the rate of a Glennallen Hill, but he's probably the closest the Majors have to offer.

The bottom three of the 120 ranked outfielders for this research produce two familiar names: Brian Giles (1.99) and Ichiro (2.05).  These two players are the typical examples of fantasy bats you'd expect to find at the bottom of a pts/opp. category.  One is an aging "power" bat (yeah, remember way back when?) and the other's a singles-hitting-base-stealer.  Don't be too concerned about Ichiro being ranked this low.  Remember that most of his opportunity is made by stealing bases and scoring runs, two things that are risky and that he has very little control over.

The median for this category is our favorite fluctuating fellow: Aubrey Huff (2.39 pts/opp.).  Huff was a "surprise" to most fantasy owners last year as he put up his typical "Devil Ray" numbers from almost 3-years ago.  Bill James projects similar numbers for 2009: 23 HRs, 80 RBI, 70 R, and a .280 BA.  

Notable "below-average" sluggers identified are Delmon Young (2.32), Nick Swisher (2.31), and Josh Willingham (2.31).  Of these three, I think it's important to note that this may be Delmon Young's last chance to live up to the "next Ken Griffey Jr." billing we were all promised back in 2005-06.  I know that I can't be the only one who was fed up with hearing about him and Lastings "the next Willie Mays" Milledge (2.43).

When thinking of Willie... the LAST word that comes to mind is "average," which is what Milledge (.81) represents when moving to our next category, points-per-plate-appearance.

[I hope you all enjoyed the above sentence.  In the biz, that's what we call a beautiful transition.  I'm gonna just read it one more time before moving on...]

The top-five of our OPS translator deliver four familiar names and one not-so-familiar name.  The four players whom you've undoubtedly heard about before are Ryan Braun (1.05 pts/pa), Matt Holiday (.96), Josh Hamilton (.95), Carlos Beltran (.949), and Manny Ramirez (.94).

Our out-of-nowhere member of the top-five is the EXTREMELY streaky Nelson Cruz (.967), who, along with Chris Davis, carried the Texas Rangers down the stretch of the 2008 MLB season.  Cruz is an interesting option in fantasy leagues this year.  Like fellow Quadruple-A member, Dallas McPherson, Cruz has been touted as too good for Triple-A... but not disciplined/good enough for the Majors.  

However, Rangers' mangaer Ron Washington said that Nelson Cruz would bat clean-up for the Rangers if they added no offense in the off-season.  The Rangers' added nothing offensively so far this season, so (barring a random signing of Manny Ramirez or something) one would expect Washington to make good on his commitment.  Cruz, 28, is in the prime of his offensive career and will be batting consistently behind Josh Hamilton in 2009.  

That's too much to ignore.

Combine this with Bill James' projected 28 home runs, 84 RBI, and 18 stolen bases and you have the foundation for what may FINALLY qualify as Cruz's "break-out" season.  That all said, please don't go ahead and draft this guy as your #1 outfielder.  You'll be laughed at.  Seriously, laughed at.  I would rank him as a low-two, high-three... but please be sure to draft a serviceable back-up for protection if he struggles throughout April and May.  

However, if Cruz does for your fantasy team what he did for mine during the fantasy play-offs last year, you'll be more than pleased you took the risk on this potential late-bloomer.