New York Yankees 2009 Off-Season Make-Over

I've spent the last day and a half looking over the off-season rumblings and grumblings over at MLB Trade Rumors and couldn't help but put my two cents in on the Yankees' off-season game plan.

First, let's get it clear that the Yanks have a lot of payroll being freed with the assumed departures of Jason Giambi, Bobby Abreu, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte, and Carl Pavano (not to mention minor contracts of Morgan Ensberg, Kyle Farnsworth/Pudge Rodriguez, LaTroy Hawkins, Chad Moeller, Chris Woodward, etc).  All together, we're looking at a freed-up 75 million (according to Peter Abraham) for this off-season.

Now... going into the off-season here's what the Yankees are rolling with offensively:

Catcher - J. Molina / J. Posada*

Firstbase - 

Secondbase - R. Cano

Thirdbase - A. Rodriguez

Shortstop - D. Jeter

Left Field - J. Damon

Center Field -

Right Field - X. Nady

Designated Hitter - H. Matsui

* - Posada plans on catching about 120 -130 games in 2009.  I don't really see this as a realistic expectation.  He had surgery just past the All-Star Break; so I can only see him realistically playing a little more than half the season at most.  Also... wouldn't it be a little bit risky/irresponsible of Joe Girardi to play a 38 year-old catcher coming off shoulder surgery 120 games?

The starting rotation, on the other hand, is much more worse off:

1 - Chien-Ming Wang

2 - Phil Hughes

3 - Alfredo Aceves

4 - Ian Kennedy

5a - Kei Igawa

5b - Darrell Rasner

Essentially, the Yankees would be surrendering before the season even started if they neglected to improve that God-awful pitching staff.  No joke: I'd make a case that the rotation listed above would be among the worst in baseball.

Because Brian Cashman and the Yankees recognize this, C.C. Sabathia is the Bronx Bombers' number one target entering the 2008-09 off-season.  However, Sabathia is not (repeat NOT) coming to New York.  As SI's Jon Heyman notes, Sabathia "loves" the National League and is currently building a home in Orange County, near his family.  While the Yankees will, inevitably, bring a huge offer to the table for Sabathia, I can't help but think that the Dodgers and the Giants are going to be the top-two destinations where Sabathia will end up.

This brings us to a flurry of second tier options for the Yankees to consider.  It's been made absolutely clear that Yankees' co-chair, Hank Steinbrenner, loves A.J. Burnett.  I think this deal gets done as soon as Brian Cashman and the Yankees' brass realize that C.C. to N.Y. is not happening.

Today, Buster Olney, acknowledged something that I've been pushing to Yankee fans for a while now: Derek Lowe in Pinstripes.  Think about it: Two of the best sinker ballers in the league (Wang and Lowe) on one team with a decent-enough infield to make it work.  I would love this move for the Yanks, and think Lowe would love to come back to the AL East and take on his former team, the Red Sox (afterall... if you can't be in L.A., why not N.Y.C.?).

The Yankees' fantasy rotation should be completed by bringing Andy Pettitte back with a one year contract.  If Pettitte decides against playing baseball in 2009, the Yanks have Phil Hughes to fall back on as their 4th or 5th starter.

These signings give the Yankees a rotations looking something like this in 2009:

1 - C. Wang

2 - A. Burnett

3 - A. Pettitte

4 - D. Lowe

5 - P. Hughes

This looks MUCH better than the monstrosity listed above.  I know a lot of people are probably reading this and wondering: "Where's Joba?"

The Joba situation is a tough one.  Jorge Posada, as a guest on YES' CenterStage a few weeks ago, comment that Joba's shoulder should not be overlooked.  Like a young Mariano Rivera, and Kerry Wood after him, Joba may be destined for a role in the bullpen as Mariano's heir apparent.

Think of it this way; in 2009 Mariano Rivera will have a platoon of Phil Coke, Jose Veras, and Edwar Ramirez in the middle innings with Damaso Marte (lhp) and Joba Chamberlain (rhp) doing their best Mike Stanton and Jeff Nelson (circa 1996-1999) impersonations.

I don't know about you... but I think that group has the propensity to be one of the best and most talented bullpens in baseball entering 2009.  Combine that with a healthy season from Phil Hughes in the starting rotation and the Yankees are sitting pretty as a play-off contender once again.

Turning back to the offense for a moment; there's obviously some holes that need filling:

Catcher:  Obviously, this is going to be a weird set-up for 2009.  Jose Molina will be back in the Bronx as will a recuperated Jorge Posada.  However, the Yankees are going to need a serviceable platoon partner for the first part of the baseball season.  The free agent crop of catchers is extremely thin...  maybe bringing in a guy like Greg Zaun or Paul Lo Duca would be the best idea.  This way, you can just drop them onto waivers and let them spend the remainder of their one-year deals in Triple-A once Posada comes back to the bigs.

First Base:  Big Tex (Mark Teixeira).  It seems obvious right?  The thing is... do the Yankees want to financially handicap themselves with another outrageously expensive contract?  I really don't think that's what Brian Cashman's looking to do this off-season.  In fact...  I believe that Cashman acquired Xavier Nady this past year for two reasons.  First, to fill in for an injured Hideki Matsui (and platoon with a defensive liability in Johnny Damon) and, second, to take over at first base when Jason Giambi's team option is declined during the off-season.

Also, Johnny Damon wants to be thrown into the first base mix next season, according to NY Daily New writer Mark Feinsand.  To me, this move makes the most sense.  To his credit, Damon goes all-out in the outfield, but a lot of times... this leads to injury.  I think moving Damon to first keeps his bat in the line-up, which is what the Yankees really need to keep their offense functioning (despite what my friend, and fellow blogger, Mike Plugh has to say about Damon's offensive inabilities).  This move also keeps Nady and, possibly, Matsui in the two corner outfield positions; drastically improving the Yanks' outfield defense.

Second Base:  I think Robbie Cano will be back in 2009.  The only thing I attempt to trade him for is a young Center Fielder... because the CF market is extremely dry this offseason.  A few examples of CF that would fit the bill for possible trading would be the Brewers' Corey Hart, the White Sox Nick Swisher, or maybe the Marlins' Cameron Maybin (with a package of players, of course).  The only other chance the Yankees have is to cross-their-fingers and hope the Brewers buy-out Mike Cameron's team option for 2009... thereby making him a free agent this off-season.

If any of these moves are made... look for the Yankees to lock up formet AL East Second Baseman, Orlando Hudson or a serviceable stop-gap like Mark Ellis.  Though they could just slide Wilson Betemit in a 2B, I don't trust his durability in the long run.

Third Base and Shortstop:  A.  Rod, Jeter.  Case Closed.

Left Field:  I think Hideki Matsui will be back in the LF fold next spring, with Nady moving to RF and Damon getting most of his playing time at 1B.  However, I think that the Yankees' big splash this off-season will come with a guy who can play a little LF and a little DH, splitting time with Matsui and Damon in the OF.  For now, though, we'll stick with Godzilla in left because his contract and increased batting average last season make this look like a smart idea.

Right Field:  The Yanks aren't going to pick up Bobby Abreu's team option; instead shifting Xavier Nady from LF to RF (because it's more cost-effective).  Pretty clean-cut here.

Center Field: The Yankees, historically, have always had very good Center Fielders... but this season they have nothing.  For this reason I would really like to see them trade Robbie Cano for one of the names listed about (especially if they can't sign Mike Cameron for a few years while Austin Jackson figures things out down on the farm).

Designated Hitter:  Manny Ramirez.  The Yanks are going to save a lot of money when they don't get Sabathia, and they realize all the talent they can rope with their new freed-up cash (rather than spend it all on one Teixeira).  Combine all this with the fact that Hankenstein wants an offensive spark in the worst way... and you're got Manny Being Manny in the new ballpark in the Bronx.

I think signing Ramirez to a 3 year deal would be well-worth the offensive presence he brings to the Yankees' line-up.  If the team does this... look for a murderer's row that looks something like this:

1.  Johnny Damon, 1B (lefty)

2.  Derek Jeter, SS (righty)

3.  Manny Ramirez, DH (righty)

4.  Alex Rodriguez, 3B (righty)

5.  Xavier Nady, RF (righty)

6.  Jorge Posada, C (switch)

7.  Hideki Matsui, LF (lefty)

8.  Nick Swisher, CF (switch)

9.  Orlando Hudson, 2B (switch)

Combine that monstocity of a line-up with the improved pitching staff and bullpen in 2009, and I can definitely see the Yankees getting back into the play-offs in 2009.

Fantasy Pitchers (Not Named Kershaw) to Consider

So Clayton Kershaw's first start went pretty damn well, as Life of Brian regular Mike Plugh pointed out on the comments page of last week's feature on the Dodgers' young starter. However, for those of us not looking to pick up the next big thing (cough-David Price-cough), I have looked through the ownership percentage page at CBS Sports and found a few guys that should definitely be considered for a roster spot in the upcoming weeks:

Jake Westbrook, CLE:  He went down with a rib cage injury after only 4 starts and was promptly dropped in a large percentage of fantasy league with little to now bench depth.  He's one of those guys that are good... but not good enough for a DL slot on a fantasy roster.  His ownership, at its peak, in Week 4 was 76% of CBS Sports leagues.  Today it sits at a lackluster 47%.  Again, he's not going to single-handedly carry your pitching staff, but for weeks like next week, when he's a two-start pitcher, he is a more than serviceable option in the deepest of fantasy leagues.  Just take a look at his first four starts:

April 3: 7.1 

IP, 6 hits, 2 ER, 1 BB, and 3 K's

April 8: 9.0 IP, 7 hits, 3 ER, 0 BB, and 4 K's

April 14: 6.1 IP, 7 hits, 1 ER, 3 BB, and 5 K's

April 19: 7.0 IP, 8 hits, 3 ER, 1 BB, and 4 K's

Now, after looking at those numbers take a gander at these:

May 8: 6.0 IP, 9 hits, 5 ER, 1 BB, and 5 K's

May 14: 6.0 IP, 6 hits, 2 ER, 3 BB, and 3 K's

May 20: 6.0 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 1 BB, and 7 K's

May 25: 7.0 IP, 5 hits, 1 ER, 4 BB, and 3 K's

The stats I places above are of a pitcher who, as of right now, is owned in 97% of CBS leagues.  Other than the 5/20 strikeout spike for our mystery pitcher, Westbrook looks like a pretty damn good option.  For those of you who are sitting on the edge of you seat wondering who this mystery pitcher is... it's none other than the Tigers' extremely underwhelming ace, Justin Verlander.

Jesse Litsch, TOR: His ownership exploded this week to a whopping 59%, despite only 29% of leagues starting him.  For that minority, Litsch has done nothing but pitch brilliantly.  Of his last six starts*, Litsch has failed to go 7 innings once (5.2 @ Minnesota).  During this span he sports and ERA of 2.08 and a .90 WHIP, which is insane.  I don't know how anyone is looking at these numbers and passing on this kid.  He doesn't strike anyone out (2:1 IP-K ratio), but he doesn't walk anyone either (9 walks in 69 IP...crazy).  Other than all of that... these numbers are in line with everything he's done throughout his career, so there's no fine print or "but" after his stat line.  Take a look at what I mean:

2006: 158.2 IP, 1.25 WHIP

2007: 187.1 IP, 1.25 WHIP

2008 (so far): 65 IP, 1.15 WHIP

2008 (on pace): 192 IP, 1.15 WHIP, and 3.15 ERA

That projection, to me, is a bit off.  I can't see a guy whose career WHIP is 1.25 shaving it down

 that much out of no where.  Nonetheless, those numbers indicate that Litsch is on pace to fall somewhere in between the 2007 numbers of Greg Maddux and Chien Ming Wang.  Wang's ERA is very low and Maddux's is high... but either way, these indicators are telling you to buy Litsch... and soon.

Jose Contreras, ChW:  Wait... let me make sure I want to do

 this...  Hmmm... 42.2 IP, 2.11 ERA, 0.84 WHIP in his last six?  Okay.  I'll endorse Jose Contreras as an undervalued commodity (as of now).  I mean, look at those numbers, that's absolutely filthy!  Obviously any fantasy veteran knows that he's not going to keep this streak up.  He's too old and been around the block too many times, plus he's a head-case.  However, don't let someone else in your league pick him up and use him against you (don't you hate when that happen?).  He's a decent start for next week and maybe the week after that... but don't ride him until he dies, because it could be swift and painful for both you and him.  I wouldn't put him in the same category as the two guys listed above, but he's definitely worth picking up if you have the available roster space.

Yankees - Diamondbacks (Interleague Series Thoughts)

Tonight I attended the Yankees--Diamonbacks opening game of a three-game interleague series and a couple things came to mind:

First: Bobby Abreu is the ultimate baseball player. Think about it. For the first two months, if not two and a half, of the MLB season, Bobby has been torn apart by fans and the media alike. I remember doing it myself in April when many fan were still on the "hate A-Rod" ban-wagon. I distinctly remember hte situation too. It was during the opening series against the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, who were leading late in the ball game. Stepping to the plate in his normal three-spot was Bobby Abreu who was struck out looking before A-Rod struck out swinging. Abreu's failure was unrecognized, whereas A-Rod, now in the media spotlight, was "boo'd" relentlessly. Now, as we're all aware Alex Rodriguez has once again become the "apple" in the "eye" of most Yankees' fans, whereas Bobby Abreu has had a harder time.
While Abreu could've rolled over and died like the Alex Rodriguez on 2006, he persevered. After the game, Abreu talked about going into the batting cage day after day, talking to teammates, coaches, and even friends of his who could offer advice to him. Today, Abreu launched a three-run bomb off 2006 Cy Young Award Winner Brandon Webb in the bottem of the first, supplying the Yankees all the runs they would need to win tonights game.
Does this make Abreu a better player than A-Rod? No. However, his perseverance must be recognized. In 2006, A-Rod essentially crumbled in the spotlight of the New York media and fan criticism, whereas Bobby Abreu used it as a motivational factor, which propelled him to the state he is playing in today. The point I am trying to make here is that Bobby Abreu is one of the few modern additions to this Yankee team that embodies the old-school form of what it means to be a Yankee. Abreu takes pitches, drives the ball to all fields, and can handle the pressure of the media and fans. It would be comepletely assinine for the Bombers to opt out of his team option in 2007 in order to give Melky Cabrera additional playing time. While I love Melky and the energy he brings to the team, this is not the guy he should be replacing; which brings be to my next point:

Second, Johnny Damon love being a Yankee. After every game he is the first player out of the locker room and will always shoot the media straight. That is to say, give them the answers they want to hear. The answers that Derek Jeter would nevere give them. The DH role that Damon has come to fulfill these past few weeks seems ideal for him. It's ironic as the successor to Bernie Williams ends up succeeding him in his role as DH/utility outfielder. Many thought it would be at least three years before Damon came anywhere near entering that role. However, shin-splints being what they are, Damon has entered this role a year or two early.
This brings us to Jason Giambi, a player who has fought year in and yea rout for the respect and admiration of Yankees' fans. With Damon, Giambi's long-time buddy, in the DH slot, this leaves little room for the large-and-in-charge slugger. All signs point to the Yankees attempting to get out of the final years of Jason Giambi's contract with the team. While, obviously, no team would take on the the contract of Giambi via trade, offense-deficient ball clubs like the Angels, Dodgers, and Orioles would look to add the bat of the "Giambino."

Lastly, (as it's getting late) the Yankee starting pitching is carrying the team during this stretch. Joe Torre said it himself: "This streak is predicated upon by starting pitching." It happened tonight with Wang, the staff ace, and looks to continue tomorrow night when Mike Mussina takes the hill. This cannot make fans feel too confident as the Moose has had his struggles the past few starts. One can only hope that the offense can back Mussina enough that he can have a hiccup or two during Wednesday night's start. On Thursday afternoon the Yanks will send out old reliable Andy Pettitte, which mean that even if Mussina stumbles and the Yanks fall to the D-Backs on Wednesday the club could enter this weekend's Subway Series with a 7-1 record over their last eight, which is NOT bad at all!
To conclude, make sure you tune into 90.7 FM or WFUV.org this Saturday from 1-4 in order to not only hear the longest running sports call in show that in One on One, but to also hear live game updates from Yankee Stadium by yours truly.

Thanks for reading again and I'll see you next time.