Fantasy Baseball Prep: Outfield

Far and away, the outfield portion of this series is the most mind-boggling.  Each day, before sitting down to write my latest post, I take a look at the spread sheet to see what names pop out at me as "strange."  Not "strange" in the fact that it's unfathomable that a players be ranked so highly, but "strange" that I didn't think of this without the guidance of stats and numbers.

Today, however, "strange" refers to the former.

For this reason, I'm going to analyze this position the same way I did for catcher, first base, second base, third base, and shortstop before pointing out a few outliers that found their way(s) "in."

Starting with our first statistical category, points-per-opportunity (see introductory chapter for a rundown of statistics and formulas), Ryan Braun (2.92 pts/opp.) reigns supreme.  In fact, Braun tops every statistical category I've created for the purposes of this blog series.  It's safe to say that Bill James has crowned Braun as the "cream of the crop" in 2009.

Behind Braun, filling out the top-three, are Alfonso Soriano (2.77) and Marcus Thames (2.76).  I can't say I'm too surprised with the top-three.  Soriano rakes when healthy... but that's been a bit of a problem for him recently (many Cubs' fans know about his "hopping" problem in the outfield).  Thames, on the other hand, is projected to hit only 22 more singles than home runs in limited at-bats.  He's not quite up to the rate of a Glennallen Hill, but he's probably the closest the Majors have to offer.

The bottom three of the 120 ranked outfielders for this research produce two familiar names: Brian Giles (1.99) and Ichiro (2.05).  These two players are the typical examples of fantasy bats you'd expect to find at the bottom of a pts/opp. category.  One is an aging "power" bat (yeah, remember way back when?) and the other's a singles-hitting-base-stealer.  Don't be too concerned about Ichiro being ranked this low.  Remember that most of his opportunity is made by stealing bases and scoring runs, two things that are risky and that he has very little control over.

The median for this category is our favorite fluctuating fellow: Aubrey Huff (2.39 pts/opp.).  Huff was a "surprise" to most fantasy owners last year as he put up his typical "Devil Ray" numbers from almost 3-years ago.  Bill James projects similar numbers for 2009: 23 HRs, 80 RBI, 70 R, and a .280 BA.  

Notable "below-average" sluggers identified are Delmon Young (2.32), Nick Swisher (2.31), and Josh Willingham (2.31).  Of these three, I think it's important to note that this may be Delmon Young's last chance to live up to the "next Ken Griffey Jr." billing we were all promised back in 2005-06.  I know that I can't be the only one who was fed up with hearing about him and Lastings "the next Willie Mays" Milledge (2.43).

When thinking of Willie... the LAST word that comes to mind is "average," which is what Milledge (.81) represents when moving to our next category, points-per-plate-appearance.

[I hope you all enjoyed the above sentence.  In the biz, that's what we call a beautiful transition.  I'm gonna just read it one more time before moving on...]

The top-five of our OPS translator deliver four familiar names and one not-so-familiar name.  The four players whom you've undoubtedly heard about before are Ryan Braun (1.05 pts/pa), Matt Holiday (.96), Josh Hamilton (.95), Carlos Beltran (.949), and Manny Ramirez (.94).

Our out-of-nowhere member of the top-five is the EXTREMELY streaky Nelson Cruz (.967), who, along with Chris Davis, carried the Texas Rangers down the stretch of the 2008 MLB season.  Cruz is an interesting option in fantasy leagues this year.  Like fellow Quadruple-A member, Dallas McPherson, Cruz has been touted as too good for Triple-A... but not disciplined/good enough for the Majors.  

However, Rangers' mangaer Ron Washington said that Nelson Cruz would bat clean-up for the Rangers if they added no offense in the off-season.  The Rangers' added nothing offensively so far this season, so (barring a random signing of Manny Ramirez or something) one would expect Washington to make good on his commitment.  Cruz, 28, is in the prime of his offensive career and will be batting consistently behind Josh Hamilton in 2009.  

That's too much to ignore.

Combine this with Bill James' projected 28 home runs, 84 RBI, and 18 stolen bases and you have the foundation for what may FINALLY qualify as Cruz's "break-out" season.  That all said, please don't go ahead and draft this guy as your #1 outfielder.  You'll be laughed at.  Seriously, laughed at.  I would rank him as a low-two, high-three... but please be sure to draft a serviceable back-up for protection if he struggles throughout April and May.  

However, if Cruz does for your fantasy team what he did for mine during the fantasy play-offs last year, you'll be more than pleased you took the risk on this potential late-bloomer.

Fantasy Baseball Prep: Catchers

Using The Bill James Handbook as my primary resource, I calculated the point totals for each player in the Catcher position based on the table I posted earlier.  

In 2009, I feel like there's going to be a number of new catchers entering the forefront.  For the most part, these players are those who were once in a platoon or are rookies/second-year players who finally reached the bigs.  In order to gauge what their "point-potential" may be for 2009, I created two new categories: "points per opportunity" and "points per plate appearance."  

Essentially, points per opportunity (pts/opp.) is the number of points each player makes when doing something ASIDE from making an out.  This statistic divides the total number of points by the hits and walks of a given player.  For me, this statistic is the SLG% of a points-based fantasy league.  You're able to see who does the most when they connect.  The average PTS/OPP. in this instance was 2.22.

Benjie Molina (2.22), Kenji Johjima (2.23), Ramon Hernandez (2.23), and A.J. Pierzynski (2.21) are all examples of an average player using this statistic.

While Johjima wasn't a starting catcher in my fantasy league last year, I'm surprised to see players who were (Molina, Hernandez, and Pierzynski) lumped in the same group.  What does this tell us?  Not that Johjima is going to bounce back... rather, that 2009 may represent a changing of the guard at catcher.

This isn't totally surprising to me.  The average age of starters at the catcher position has increased every year (I know, that sounds logical and stupid), rather than staying the same.  The reason that I suggest that it's not as "stupid" as it seems is due to the fact that older catchers should be breaking down and younger catchers should be taking their spots.  A couple things prevent this from happening.  First, there are longer contracts being signed by catchers.  In the list above, Johjima, Hernandez, and Molina are all examples of this.  Let's also not forget players like Jorge Posada, who signed a lucrative deal last off-season, and Jason Varitek, who's about to do the same.  Second, catchers are losing their offensive ability before their defense ability.  Exemplifying this are Pudge Rodriguez, the aforementioned Benjie Molina, and Jason Kendell.

Moving to our second and, in my opinion, more-telling statistic, points-per-plate-appearance (PTS/PA) we take a look at the OPS of points-based leagues.  This statistic shows us the number of points each player should accrue each time they step to the plate.  To find this number, I divided the points total of each player by their at-bats (AB) and walks (BB).

The average, in this case, was .74 PTS/PA.  Jeff Clement, Chris Snyder, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia were the three players who represented the "average" in this category.  Personally, I'm so happy about one of the names that this formula spit out.  If you're like me, you've considered Jarrod Saltalamacchia nothing but a long name and nothing else.  Year-after-year I see this guy drafted before the Ryan Doumit's and Chris Iannetta's of the league and can't help but scratch my head...  This statistic has justified what I've thought all along, "Salty's" nothing but an average player at this point in his career.

Toping this list is, not-surprisingly, Mike Napoli, who should get regular AB's for the Angels in 2009.  The problem with Napoli has never been his consistency at the plate... in fact, he's mashed whenever he's been healthy-enough to do so.  Bill James' projection reveals a .93 PTS/PA for Napoli.  To put that in perspective, the other players with a .93 PTS/PA are Manny Ramirez, Evan Longoria, and Chase Utley.  Household name much?

Of the top-tier of catchers, Brian McCann (.87) is the only player listed in the Top-5 (Russell Martin is #7, Victor Martinez is #14, and Jorge Posada is #13).  With this known, I would wait until Russell Martin is drafted to pick up McCann.  I say this because, I feel that people are beginning to sour on the injury issues surrounding Victor Martinez and Jorge Posada.  While both players bat in high-powered line-ups, I think their age and injury problems are enough to turn off a healthy portion of "informed" fantasy owners.

A.J. Burnett Brings His PWR/GB Stats To The Bronx

The story is covered in length by the New York Post's George A. King III here.  The most interesting excerpt I found, though, was this:

"And the Yankees, who had $88 million come off the books after a very discouraging 2008 season, still have money to chase Derek Lowe, Ben Sheets, Andy Pettitte and possibly Mark Teixeira or Manny Ramirez."

Now, before getting to the fantasy impact of A.J. Burnett's arrival, I have to weigh in and say that I cannot see the Yankees chasing Derek Lowe or Mark Teixeira of all the names listed above.  Its been made apparent that the 5th spot in the Yankees rotation belongs to Pettitte, if he wants it.  If not, enter Ben Sheets.  It's about as simple as that.

Again, I'm not going to pick up the Manny Ramirez torch, but, as I outline here, I think Manny would absolutely accept the same offer the Dodgers made (2 years, 50 million) if it was offered by the Yankees.  He would then be the team's full-time DH and clean-up hitter for 2009-2010.

Aside from all this housekeeping, let's get down to the meat-and-potatoes of this post: A.J. Burnett.  In Ron Shandler's 2008 Forecaster, he classifies Burnett as a PWR-GB (Power-Ground ball pitcher).  Essentially, this classification is defined by a pitcher whose GB rate is over 50% and who limits balls in play by strikeouts, walks, or both.  In Burnett's case, let's take a look at the numbers:

2006: 135 IP, 118 K's, 39 BB

2007: 165 IP, 176 K's, 66 BB

2008: 221 IP, 231 K's, 86 BB

Okay... so his BB/9 for 2006-2008 are 2.6, 3.6, and 3.5; which aren't the greatest... but aren't horrible either.  I like to see semi-consistent numbers here because we'll have an indication of what to expect in 2009.  His K/9, on the other-hand, is ridiculous (2006-2008): 7.8, 9.6, and 9.4.  Again, a pretty good model of consistency over the past three seasons.

Consistency, statistically-speaking, hasn't been the problem with Burnett.  Consistency, medically-speaking, has.  For this reason, drafting Burnett will always be a risky situation.  Judging his fantasy value is easy.  If healthy, he'll be dominant in a fantasy league.  However, is drafting Burnett the most cost-effective approach to winning?

Looking at the difference in offense, the 2007 Yankees scored 215 more runs than the 2007 Blue Jays while batting, as a team, 31-points higher (.290).  The bullpens, tell a bit of a different story, though.  IN 2007, the Toronto bullpen features a 2.94 ERA in 425 IP, nearly an earned-run less than the Yankees' 3.79 ERA in 543 IP (thanks for Baseball-Reference for the help).

While the Yankees' 2009 bullpen will not be a carbon copy of their 2008 counterparts, there is no, I repeat: no, way they're going to put up a 2.94 bullpen ERA.  And while Burnett won't necessarily need the help from the bullpen... it would definitely be a nice cushion to fall back on for those rough nights.

Listen, all this is arbitrary at this point.  Entering the 2009 baseball season, A.J. Burnett is going to be ranked in the Top-10 starting pitchers of every fantasy board.  I would try to avoid being the team that drafts him because of the injury problems.  There are two ways to avoid this problem: (A) draft a better SP early and put the pressure on your opponents to pull-the-trigger on Brunett, or (B) draft Burnett with a pick, then draft a high-end SP with the following pick for insurance.

If you're like me, you're allergic to the high-maintenance fantasy pitchers like Burnett, and likely choose 'Option-A.'  I enjoy seeing people forced into drafting players they don't whole-heartedly love... and leaving a Burnett out on the table should put a rival in that more-than-precarious situation.

Nick Swisher's Impact on Yankees Offensive Plans

Nick Swisher to the Yankees... hmm...  I thought I read something about that over a month ago.  Oh, that's right... I did... on this blog.

Despite the contention of readers that Nick Swisher was not a "Girardi Guy," he was acquired this past week by the pinstripes to play a little centerfield and a little first base (as forecasted by yours truly).  Where does this deal leave the Yankees?  Well, there's a couple different avenues they can travel to solidify Swish as either a first baseman or an outfielder.

As it stands now, Melky Cabrera is on the outs.  He's really never been anything more than a 4th outfield that the Yankees tried to make a CF.  I don't know if it was because of the "Got Melky?" shirts or the "el Leche" calls by John Sterling, but either way, the Yankees were stubborn in not realizing what this guy was: a AAAA baseball player.

Next we have everyone's new Flavor of the Week, Brett Gardner.  It's uncanny how much Yankee fans don't learn.  Starting Brett Gardner in center next year is starting Melky Cabrera all over again!  Different name, same game.  I know Girardi loves the kid, but love him off your bench in a pinch-running, defensive replacement role.  This kid is seriously Dave Roberts with less pop.  I know that Yankee fans remember the 2004 play-off collapse against the Red Sox (yeah... sorry to bring that up again).  Do you remember what killed the Yankees near the conclusion of each game?  Obviously, David Ortiz's bat gets most of the attention, but it was Tito Francona's use of Dave Roberts in the late innings.  Roberts would steal second base, and Papi's prowess for clutch hits would bring the speedster in to score.  This happened two nights in a row (Games 4 and 5).  Ironically, the two games that turned the entire series around for the Red Sox.

The trip down memory lane wasn't designed to have you start tearing up in frustration.  It was just used to show you HOW Brett Gardner should be used: off the bench, in late innings, to put pressure on the opposition.  So please, please, please stop with this non-sense about Garnder's role as a starter next season.  Case closed.

Next, everyone's favorite prospect, Austin Jackson.  This kid really, really shouldn't even be considered.  But, as we've seen with prospects like Alex Escobar, after hearing about a young player so much, his name is worth than his ability.  The guys over at WasWatching detail Jackson's minor league report card, noting specifically that Jackson's good... but not what we've all come to expect from such a prestigious Yankee prospect.  With all that said, Jackson may be more valuable to the Yankees in a Padres uniform.  That's right, San Diego, reportedly, would require Austin Jackson in any Jake Peavy deal.  To that I say, sayonara.  

Now, because the Yankees have a noticible lack in CF talent, I motion that they use Swish exclusively as a CF.  He played his entire career at Ohio State there and is more athletic than industry sources give him credit for (though he is a bit shaky at 1B).

If you use Swish in CF and move Johnny Damon to 1B (again, as I suggested here), which he is willing to do, you clear the Damon-Matsui log-jam in LF and open up the Designated hitter position.

If the Yankees do this... they now have the option to bring back Jason Giambi at a discounted rate, or make a run at Manny Ramirez.  Both of whom would look very good in a offense that's shaping up to look something like this:

1.  Damon, 1B

2.  Jeter, SS

3.  Rodriguez, 3B

4.  Ramirez / Giambi*, DH

5.  Matsui, LF

6.  Nady, RF

7.  Posada, C

8.  Can0, 2B

9.  Swisher, CF

New York Yankees 2009 Off-Season Make-Over

I've spent the last day and a half looking over the off-season rumblings and grumblings over at MLB Trade Rumors and couldn't help but put my two cents in on the Yankees' off-season game plan.

First, let's get it clear that the Yanks have a lot of payroll being freed with the assumed departures of Jason Giambi, Bobby Abreu, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte, and Carl Pavano (not to mention minor contracts of Morgan Ensberg, Kyle Farnsworth/Pudge Rodriguez, LaTroy Hawkins, Chad Moeller, Chris Woodward, etc).  All together, we're looking at a freed-up 75 million (according to Peter Abraham) for this off-season.

Now... going into the off-season here's what the Yankees are rolling with offensively:

Catcher - J. Molina / J. Posada*

Firstbase - 

Secondbase - R. Cano

Thirdbase - A. Rodriguez

Shortstop - D. Jeter

Left Field - J. Damon

Center Field -

Right Field - X. Nady

Designated Hitter - H. Matsui

* - Posada plans on catching about 120 -130 games in 2009.  I don't really see this as a realistic expectation.  He had surgery just past the All-Star Break; so I can only see him realistically playing a little more than half the season at most.  Also... wouldn't it be a little bit risky/irresponsible of Joe Girardi to play a 38 year-old catcher coming off shoulder surgery 120 games?

The starting rotation, on the other hand, is much more worse off:

1 - Chien-Ming Wang

2 - Phil Hughes

3 - Alfredo Aceves

4 - Ian Kennedy

5a - Kei Igawa

5b - Darrell Rasner

Essentially, the Yankees would be surrendering before the season even started if they neglected to improve that God-awful pitching staff.  No joke: I'd make a case that the rotation listed above would be among the worst in baseball.

Because Brian Cashman and the Yankees recognize this, C.C. Sabathia is the Bronx Bombers' number one target entering the 2008-09 off-season.  However, Sabathia is not (repeat NOT) coming to New York.  As SI's Jon Heyman notes, Sabathia "loves" the National League and is currently building a home in Orange County, near his family.  While the Yankees will, inevitably, bring a huge offer to the table for Sabathia, I can't help but think that the Dodgers and the Giants are going to be the top-two destinations where Sabathia will end up.

This brings us to a flurry of second tier options for the Yankees to consider.  It's been made absolutely clear that Yankees' co-chair, Hank Steinbrenner, loves A.J. Burnett.  I think this deal gets done as soon as Brian Cashman and the Yankees' brass realize that C.C. to N.Y. is not happening.

Today, Buster Olney, acknowledged something that I've been pushing to Yankee fans for a while now: Derek Lowe in Pinstripes.  Think about it: Two of the best sinker ballers in the league (Wang and Lowe) on one team with a decent-enough infield to make it work.  I would love this move for the Yanks, and think Lowe would love to come back to the AL East and take on his former team, the Red Sox (afterall... if you can't be in L.A., why not N.Y.C.?).

The Yankees' fantasy rotation should be completed by bringing Andy Pettitte back with a one year contract.  If Pettitte decides against playing baseball in 2009, the Yanks have Phil Hughes to fall back on as their 4th or 5th starter.

These signings give the Yankees a rotations looking something like this in 2009:

1 - C. Wang

2 - A. Burnett

3 - A. Pettitte

4 - D. Lowe

5 - P. Hughes

This looks MUCH better than the monstrosity listed above.  I know a lot of people are probably reading this and wondering: "Where's Joba?"

The Joba situation is a tough one.  Jorge Posada, as a guest on YES' CenterStage a few weeks ago, comment that Joba's shoulder should not be overlooked.  Like a young Mariano Rivera, and Kerry Wood after him, Joba may be destined for a role in the bullpen as Mariano's heir apparent.

Think of it this way; in 2009 Mariano Rivera will have a platoon of Phil Coke, Jose Veras, and Edwar Ramirez in the middle innings with Damaso Marte (lhp) and Joba Chamberlain (rhp) doing their best Mike Stanton and Jeff Nelson (circa 1996-1999) impersonations.

I don't know about you... but I think that group has the propensity to be one of the best and most talented bullpens in baseball entering 2009.  Combine that with a healthy season from Phil Hughes in the starting rotation and the Yankees are sitting pretty as a play-off contender once again.

Turning back to the offense for a moment; there's obviously some holes that need filling:

Catcher:  Obviously, this is going to be a weird set-up for 2009.  Jose Molina will be back in the Bronx as will a recuperated Jorge Posada.  However, the Yankees are going to need a serviceable platoon partner for the first part of the baseball season.  The free agent crop of catchers is extremely thin...  maybe bringing in a guy like Greg Zaun or Paul Lo Duca would be the best idea.  This way, you can just drop them onto waivers and let them spend the remainder of their one-year deals in Triple-A once Posada comes back to the bigs.

First Base:  Big Tex (Mark Teixeira).  It seems obvious right?  The thing is... do the Yankees want to financially handicap themselves with another outrageously expensive contract?  I really don't think that's what Brian Cashman's looking to do this off-season.  In fact...  I believe that Cashman acquired Xavier Nady this past year for two reasons.  First, to fill in for an injured Hideki Matsui (and platoon with a defensive liability in Johnny Damon) and, second, to take over at first base when Jason Giambi's team option is declined during the off-season.

Also, Johnny Damon wants to be thrown into the first base mix next season, according to NY Daily New writer Mark Feinsand.  To me, this move makes the most sense.  To his credit, Damon goes all-out in the outfield, but a lot of times... this leads to injury.  I think moving Damon to first keeps his bat in the line-up, which is what the Yankees really need to keep their offense functioning (despite what my friend, and fellow blogger, Mike Plugh has to say about Damon's offensive inabilities).  This move also keeps Nady and, possibly, Matsui in the two corner outfield positions; drastically improving the Yanks' outfield defense.

Second Base:  I think Robbie Cano will be back in 2009.  The only thing I attempt to trade him for is a young Center Fielder... because the CF market is extremely dry this offseason.  A few examples of CF that would fit the bill for possible trading would be the Brewers' Corey Hart, the White Sox Nick Swisher, or maybe the Marlins' Cameron Maybin (with a package of players, of course).  The only other chance the Yankees have is to cross-their-fingers and hope the Brewers buy-out Mike Cameron's team option for 2009... thereby making him a free agent this off-season.

If any of these moves are made... look for the Yankees to lock up formet AL East Second Baseman, Orlando Hudson or a serviceable stop-gap like Mark Ellis.  Though they could just slide Wilson Betemit in a 2B, I don't trust his durability in the long run.

Third Base and Shortstop:  A.  Rod, Jeter.  Case Closed.

Left Field:  I think Hideki Matsui will be back in the LF fold next spring, with Nady moving to RF and Damon getting most of his playing time at 1B.  However, I think that the Yankees' big splash this off-season will come with a guy who can play a little LF and a little DH, splitting time with Matsui and Damon in the OF.  For now, though, we'll stick with Godzilla in left because his contract and increased batting average last season make this look like a smart idea.

Right Field:  The Yanks aren't going to pick up Bobby Abreu's team option; instead shifting Xavier Nady from LF to RF (because it's more cost-effective).  Pretty clean-cut here.

Center Field: The Yankees, historically, have always had very good Center Fielders... but this season they have nothing.  For this reason I would really like to see them trade Robbie Cano for one of the names listed about (especially if they can't sign Mike Cameron for a few years while Austin Jackson figures things out down on the farm).

Designated Hitter:  Manny Ramirez.  The Yanks are going to save a lot of money when they don't get Sabathia, and they realize all the talent they can rope with their new freed-up cash (rather than spend it all on one Teixeira).  Combine all this with the fact that Hankenstein wants an offensive spark in the worst way... and you're got Manny Being Manny in the new ballpark in the Bronx.

I think signing Ramirez to a 3 year deal would be well-worth the offensive presence he brings to the Yankees' line-up.  If the team does this... look for a murderer's row that looks something like this:

1.  Johnny Damon, 1B (lefty)

2.  Derek Jeter, SS (righty)

3.  Manny Ramirez, DH (righty)

4.  Alex Rodriguez, 3B (righty)

5.  Xavier Nady, RF (righty)

6.  Jorge Posada, C (switch)

7.  Hideki Matsui, LF (lefty)

8.  Nick Swisher, CF (switch)

9.  Orlando Hudson, 2B (switch)

Combine that monstocity of a line-up with the improved pitching staff and bullpen in 2009, and I can definitely see the Yankees getting back into the play-offs in 2009.

Manny Ramirez... taking attention away from a certain young hurler

Thank God for Manny Ramirez.  Not only does he have the best hair in baseball, but now he's also hogging the Hollywood spotlight and I LOVE IT!  Not because I enjoy living vicariously through the most abominable baseball players, but because it takes some attention off other Dodger players who may be on the cusp of fantasy (and baseball) dominance/stardom/relevance (take your pick).

Look back a few months to how much attention Clayton Kershaw received in May.  Dodger fans and fantasy aficionados treated this kid like the second coming of the Messiah while others (like myself) found more reliable options while Kershaw took his hits before being demoted to Triple-A.

Now, about two month later, I am ready to jump on board the Clayton Kershaw express.  He's pitched two efficient, impressive games in a row and hasn't allowed an earned run in 13.1 consecutive innings.  His walks have been cut down over this span and his innings have increased.

Basically, my official recommendation with this kid is to grab him and watch what happens.  If you have the room, take a flier and cross your fingers that he does exactly what Chad Billingsley did at the end of 2007 (straight up dominate).