Shin-Soo Choo: 2009's Rick Ankiel?

Okay, wipe the coffee you just spit out off your monitor...

If you're asking yourself who's Shin-Soo Choo, then you're in dire-straights before the season even begins.  Choo, a former starting pitcher in the Seattle Mariner's farm system, converted to outfielder after a copious amount of arm problems in the minors and has thrived since his trade to Cleveland.

What I found most interesting about Choo's extended call-up in 2008 (361 plate-appearances), was the fact that his OPS (.924) topped Hanley Ramirez, Chase Utley, Carlos Lee, and Josh Hamilton, just to name a few.  Does this mean Choo's going to top these guys?  No!  Of course that's not the case, but 2008 may be an indicator that a breakout is on the horizon for Choo in 2009.

Looking back to 2007, there was another converted-outfielder who put up a high-OPS (.863)in limited plate-appearances.  His name:  Rick Ankiel.  In 2008, Ankiel continued more-of-the-same in his PA's with a .843 OPS.  Ankiel, like Choo, played in a hitter's park and eventually found himself in the middle of the line-up with Albert Pujols somewhere nearby.

Taking a look at Choo's projected points/plate-appearance (formula offered here), he's expected to do much better than some "names" who will be drafted before him:

Bill James:  .842 pts/pa

CBS Sports:   .841 pts/pa

MARCEL:  .875 pts/pa

For Bill James, Choo should be expected to outperform the likes of Jermaine Dye (.83), Andre Ethier (.82), Nick Swisher (.81), Hideki Matsui (.80), Vernon Wells (.80), and Johnny Damon (80) in a points-based fantasy baseball league.  Now, I like the comparables here, BUT the oddball in this equation has to be Andre Ethier.  Like Choo, he's a younger (27) and in everyone's favorite "breakout" age.  Due to the fact that Ethier is guaranteed much more playing time, I would elevate him a bit out of the group of mediocrity where Bill James places him.

Moving on to CBS Sports, Choo's fantasy output (.841) is similar to those of Alex Rios (.841) and Torii Hunter (.841), two guys who will be drafted light-years before anyone even considers giving Choo the time of day.  

MARCEL provides the most favorable points/plate-appearance projection for Choo (.87); placing him in the top-20 OVERALL.  That's right.  Choo denied Chase Utley a finish in the Top-20 (Utley was 21... not bad).

Of all the players Choo weighs in above, one thing is for certain: your outfield CAN be built late.  In a draft where you're more concerned with position eligibility, be sure to have post it with "Shin-Soo Choo" written on it somewhere in your notes.  He has the potential to hit 20-25 home runs for Cleveland in 2009 while maintaining a ~.300 BA.

That all said, don't rely on him as a guaranteed 3rd outfielder in your league.  Draft him as a high-end 4th and watch what happens.  I'm not saying he's going to be the next Carlos Quentin, but you could definitely do a lot worse than having the 2009 version of Rick Ankiel at your disposal.

(Side-note:  If you believe in the "Age-27" Breakout Theory... then Choo's also turning 27 this season.  Enjoy.)

Fantasy Baseball Prep: Castigated Outfielders

Now that the Bill James-enhanced Fantasy Baseball Prep Chapter has finally come to a close, I've been shifting through CBS Sports and Marcel projections over the past few days to really key in on the "popular" choices for breakout players and potential slumping players for the 2009 season.

While I continue working through this, however, I wanted to write a bit about someone who's name I've seen brought up quite a bit on the message boards and who I didn't really mentioned in my outfield prep post.  Again, it's worth mentioning that an "average" outfielder has a Fantasy Points / Plate Appearance of 0.81 pts/pa.

The Nationals' Elijah Dukes had a problem getting opportunities in 2008.  This has to do with a number of issues: first, he has a horrible attitude (best example came against the Mets at mid-season when he felt Mike Pelfrey was throwing at him...), second, he has a problem with consistency, and third, he has enough off-field issues to last multiple seasons.

So why the hype?  Why are owners, in the cold of January, hyping someone who may not even be a regular for the Nationals in 2009?

Bill James: 0.89 pts/pa

CBS Sports: 0.83 pts/pa

Marcel: 0.82 pts/pa

I guess that about sums it up...

While Dukes isn't head-and-shoulders above average, he has shown the potential to be if given the at-bats.  Two years ago, while working for WFUV as a Yankees' beat reporter, I bumped into Dukes, then a member of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.  Now, I've seen some big baseball players, but Dukes is one of the biggest guys on the field.  If talent were determined by the shier size of a player, Dukes would be among the tops in the game.  However, for some reason, he's yet to "put it all together" (you've heard this so many times before... but I truly believe it when it comes to a guy with, seemingly, all the tools, like Dukes).

So, who should you look to rank Dukes ahead of, if given the ABs?

Marcel projects Dukes' .82 pts/pa ahead of Hunter Pence (.81), Eric Byrnes (.80), Mike Cameron (.79), and Shane Victorino (.79) -- most of whom will be drafted in points leagues (especially if strikeouts are of a minimal penalty).

For CBS Sports, Dukes barely edges Vernon Wells (.82), while also placing ahead of Jacoby Ellsbury (.81), Johnny Damon (.81), and Hunter Pence (again).

Bill James provides the most liberal, abstruse projections with Dukes' .89 pts/pa topping those of Bobby Abreu (.88), Nate McLouth (.87), Curtis Granderson (.86), Magglio Ordonez (.85), and Pat Burrell (.84), just to name a few (of the guys who will DEFINITELY be drafted before Dukes).

When all is said and done, the most you can do (at this point, anyway) is wait and see what happens in Spring Training for the Nats.  As of now, they're rolling into the season with Lastings Milledge, Wily Mo Pena, Josh Willingham, Austin Kearns, and Dukes... while also being rumored to have interest in free agent Adam Dunn and the Yankees' Xavier Nady.  Now, I was never adroit to numbers games, but I don't think you're going to have very much sucess fitting upwards of 7 major leaguers in 3 outfield spots.

To conclude, there's a bit too many pieces to this puzzle to derail my circumspect approach to a player like Dukes.  I know a lot of fantasy participants out there love him, and it's not hard to see why... but until Adam Dunn signs with another team, the Yankees trade Nady to the Mariners/Pirates, Josh Willingham converts back to catcher, and Wily Mo Pena retires... I'm going to remain an innocent bystander even with the risk of being burned by Elijah Dukes.

Nick Swisher's Impact on Yankees Offensive Plans

Nick Swisher to the Yankees... hmm...  I thought I read something about that over a month ago.  Oh, that's right... I did... on this blog.

Despite the contention of readers that Nick Swisher was not a "Girardi Guy," he was acquired this past week by the pinstripes to play a little centerfield and a little first base (as forecasted by yours truly).  Where does this deal leave the Yankees?  Well, there's a couple different avenues they can travel to solidify Swish as either a first baseman or an outfielder.

As it stands now, Melky Cabrera is on the outs.  He's really never been anything more than a 4th outfield that the Yankees tried to make a CF.  I don't know if it was because of the "Got Melky?" shirts or the "el Leche" calls by John Sterling, but either way, the Yankees were stubborn in not realizing what this guy was: a AAAA baseball player.

Next we have everyone's new Flavor of the Week, Brett Gardner.  It's uncanny how much Yankee fans don't learn.  Starting Brett Gardner in center next year is starting Melky Cabrera all over again!  Different name, same game.  I know Girardi loves the kid, but love him off your bench in a pinch-running, defensive replacement role.  This kid is seriously Dave Roberts with less pop.  I know that Yankee fans remember the 2004 play-off collapse against the Red Sox (yeah... sorry to bring that up again).  Do you remember what killed the Yankees near the conclusion of each game?  Obviously, David Ortiz's bat gets most of the attention, but it was Tito Francona's use of Dave Roberts in the late innings.  Roberts would steal second base, and Papi's prowess for clutch hits would bring the speedster in to score.  This happened two nights in a row (Games 4 and 5).  Ironically, the two games that turned the entire series around for the Red Sox.

The trip down memory lane wasn't designed to have you start tearing up in frustration.  It was just used to show you HOW Brett Gardner should be used: off the bench, in late innings, to put pressure on the opposition.  So please, please, please stop with this non-sense about Garnder's role as a starter next season.  Case closed.

Next, everyone's favorite prospect, Austin Jackson.  This kid really, really shouldn't even be considered.  But, as we've seen with prospects like Alex Escobar, after hearing about a young player so much, his name is worth than his ability.  The guys over at WasWatching detail Jackson's minor league report card, noting specifically that Jackson's good... but not what we've all come to expect from such a prestigious Yankee prospect.  With all that said, Jackson may be more valuable to the Yankees in a Padres uniform.  That's right, San Diego, reportedly, would require Austin Jackson in any Jake Peavy deal.  To that I say, sayonara.  

Now, because the Yankees have a noticible lack in CF talent, I motion that they use Swish exclusively as a CF.  He played his entire career at Ohio State there and is more athletic than industry sources give him credit for (though he is a bit shaky at 1B).

If you use Swish in CF and move Johnny Damon to 1B (again, as I suggested here), which he is willing to do, you clear the Damon-Matsui log-jam in LF and open up the Designated hitter position.

If the Yankees do this... they now have the option to bring back Jason Giambi at a discounted rate, or make a run at Manny Ramirez.  Both of whom would look very good in a offense that's shaping up to look something like this:

1.  Damon, 1B

2.  Jeter, SS

3.  Rodriguez, 3B

4.  Ramirez / Giambi*, DH

5.  Matsui, LF

6.  Nady, RF

7.  Posada, C

8.  Can0, 2B

9.  Swisher, CF

Why Does Everyone Hate Johnny Damon?

Why doesn’t anyone love Johnny Damon anymore? In every draft that I’ve participated in (three to date, one more to come next week), there have been a number of outfielders who are over-hyped and therefore over-drafted. This hype machine results in reliable late number-two/early number-three outfielders falling further than usual. One such outfielder is New York Yankee left-fielder, Johnny Damon.

Now, last I checked, Damon is still batting lead-off for the most high-powered offense in the American League. Whether you’re in a Rotisserie League or a Points league, 100 runs scored is 100 runs scored. I’ve yet to see a fantasy squad that can do without production like that. However, in my research this offseason, I’ve seen a number of talking-heads who think that Damon is free-falling from the numbers he has posted in the past. One indicator, for instance, is Damon's failing to reach 100 runs scored, despite batting atop the Yankees’ order.

The Fantasy Baseball Guide: Professional Edition 2008 says of Damon that “when a player relies on his legs as much as someone like Damon, the decline is usually swift and absolute. Yes he’s still stealing bases, but his average is on the decline.” For RotoWire, the presence of Melky Cabrera in center field, combined with the huge contracts of Jason Giambi and Hideki Matsui have turned Damon “into a part-time player.” And for FanBall’s Guide to Winning Fantasy Baseball, it is “tough to expect Damon to reach any digits he hasn’t already achieved.”

To these three periodicals, I say… “Thank You.” I am sure your words of wisdom/warning influenced a majority of the guys I’m competing against (as they should). I, however, have a few problems with the damnation of Damon for 2008:

1. The Guide tears on Damon’s legs despite his 27 stolen bases in an injury plagued 2007. For those of you keeping score, 2007’s 27 SBs were the most for Damon since 2003’s 30 stolen bases for the Red Sox. The Guide also has a problem with Damon’s “declining average,” but a look at the numbers reveals something different. For his major league career, Damon is a .287 hitter. Last year’s .270 BA is, admittedly, nearly twenty-points lower than his career average. However, Damon’s second-half numbers are more in line with his career: .289 average, 15 stolen bases, 57 runs, and a .365 OBP (a thirty-point increase from his first-half numbers!).

2. To their credit, I’m sure RotoWire projected Damon as a part-time player months before Spring Training was even though of (and if they didn’t head’s would roll in the fantasy world). As it stands now, Damon is the Yankees’ starting left fielder and leadoff hitter. The contracts of Giambi and Matsui, as many Yankee fans are already aware, mean nothing. Evidencing this point, Giambi made nearly 20 million dollars as a pinch hitter last year! So, while the huge contracts do exist, it seems that Joe Girardi is going to put the best possible line-up out on the field every night. If money outweighed potential, do you really think Melky “Major-League-Minimum” Cabrera would be starting in center for the bombers?

3. FanBall’s encrypted projection, to me, translates: “Johnny Damon will not put up big fantasy numbers again at this point in his career.” Again, I cite his second half numbers in 2007, when he was actually quasi-healthy, to refute that position. To date, Damon has reported to Spring Training in the great playing shape. His reason: "I've been pretty consistent over my career but ... when you talk about good players in the league, you know, my name hardly comes up and I don't think that's right. I think I really need to go out there and show them." Maybe it’s just me, but nothing is better than a former All-Star with a chip on his shoulder.

Ron Shandler refers to Damon as a “gracefully aging ‘idiot’,” which, in my opinion, is the most accurate description for the Yanks’ lead-off hitter. Not only do I expect 100 runs scored for Damon in 2008, but I would not be surprised at all to see him once again reach double-digit home runs (10-12) and 30 steals (you heard it here first). In fantasy baseball, like all fantasy sports, there’s a constant game of buying low and selling high. Right now, Johnny Damon cannot be further from his peak and is a perfect candidate for buying-low before he redeems himself in 2008 for the Yankees.

Yankees - Diamondbacks (Interleague Series Thoughts)

Tonight I attended the Yankees--Diamonbacks opening game of a three-game interleague series and a couple things came to mind:

First: Bobby Abreu is the ultimate baseball player. Think about it. For the first two months, if not two and a half, of the MLB season, Bobby has been torn apart by fans and the media alike. I remember doing it myself in April when many fan were still on the "hate A-Rod" ban-wagon. I distinctly remember hte situation too. It was during the opening series against the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, who were leading late in the ball game. Stepping to the plate in his normal three-spot was Bobby Abreu who was struck out looking before A-Rod struck out swinging. Abreu's failure was unrecognized, whereas A-Rod, now in the media spotlight, was "boo'd" relentlessly. Now, as we're all aware Alex Rodriguez has once again become the "apple" in the "eye" of most Yankees' fans, whereas Bobby Abreu has had a harder time.
While Abreu could've rolled over and died like the Alex Rodriguez on 2006, he persevered. After the game, Abreu talked about going into the batting cage day after day, talking to teammates, coaches, and even friends of his who could offer advice to him. Today, Abreu launched a three-run bomb off 2006 Cy Young Award Winner Brandon Webb in the bottem of the first, supplying the Yankees all the runs they would need to win tonights game.
Does this make Abreu a better player than A-Rod? No. However, his perseverance must be recognized. In 2006, A-Rod essentially crumbled in the spotlight of the New York media and fan criticism, whereas Bobby Abreu used it as a motivational factor, which propelled him to the state he is playing in today. The point I am trying to make here is that Bobby Abreu is one of the few modern additions to this Yankee team that embodies the old-school form of what it means to be a Yankee. Abreu takes pitches, drives the ball to all fields, and can handle the pressure of the media and fans. It would be comepletely assinine for the Bombers to opt out of his team option in 2007 in order to give Melky Cabrera additional playing time. While I love Melky and the energy he brings to the team, this is not the guy he should be replacing; which brings be to my next point:

Second, Johnny Damon love being a Yankee. After every game he is the first player out of the locker room and will always shoot the media straight. That is to say, give them the answers they want to hear. The answers that Derek Jeter would nevere give them. The DH role that Damon has come to fulfill these past few weeks seems ideal for him. It's ironic as the successor to Bernie Williams ends up succeeding him in his role as DH/utility outfielder. Many thought it would be at least three years before Damon came anywhere near entering that role. However, shin-splints being what they are, Damon has entered this role a year or two early.
This brings us to Jason Giambi, a player who has fought year in and yea rout for the respect and admiration of Yankees' fans. With Damon, Giambi's long-time buddy, in the DH slot, this leaves little room for the large-and-in-charge slugger. All signs point to the Yankees attempting to get out of the final years of Jason Giambi's contract with the team. While, obviously, no team would take on the the contract of Giambi via trade, offense-deficient ball clubs like the Angels, Dodgers, and Orioles would look to add the bat of the "Giambino."

Lastly, (as it's getting late) the Yankee starting pitching is carrying the team during this stretch. Joe Torre said it himself: "This streak is predicated upon by starting pitching." It happened tonight with Wang, the staff ace, and looks to continue tomorrow night when Mike Mussina takes the hill. This cannot make fans feel too confident as the Moose has had his struggles the past few starts. One can only hope that the offense can back Mussina enough that he can have a hiccup or two during Wednesday night's start. On Thursday afternoon the Yanks will send out old reliable Andy Pettitte, which mean that even if Mussina stumbles and the Yanks fall to the D-Backs on Wednesday the club could enter this weekend's Subway Series with a 7-1 record over their last eight, which is NOT bad at all!
To conclude, make sure you tune into 90.7 FM or WFUV.org this Saturday from 1-4 in order to not only hear the longest running sports call in show that in One on One, but to also hear live game updates from Yankee Stadium by yours truly.

Thanks for reading again and I'll see you next time.