Fantasy Baseball Prep: First Base

Part Two of this multi-part mini-series brings us to First Base.  Again, for an introduction to this series, feel free to click here for a break down of the point system.  

Also, if you missed out on the rather telling "Fantasy Baseball Prep: Catchers" post from yesterday evening, feel free to either scroll down or follow the above link to the post's location.

To begin, I want to rehash the two statistical formulas that I am incorporating into my research this year:  points-per-opportunity (pts/opp) and points-per-plate-appearance (pts/pa).  Essentially the two categories boil down like this, pts/opp is the Slugging% for points-based fantasy baseball leagues and pts/pa represents the OPS for points-based fantasy leagues.

With that said, let's start with the slugging and make our way to the OPS.  The range of pts/opp. was pretty vast.  The low (1.54 pts/opp) was Daric Barton, who coincidently may have lost his job today with the A's signing of Jason Giambi to a 1-year contract.  The high (2.68) went to, you guessed it, Ryan Howard.  The average for first basemen was 2.31 points/opp.  

That places a few familiar a a few unfamiliar names at the average point position in this slugging category.  The first, a maybe-surprising / maybe-not, player is Derrek Lee (2.26), who's seen his overall production decline dramatically over the past two seasons.  Below Lee is Kevin Youkilis (2.25), who had a break-out season in 2008, and Ryan Garko (2.24), the Indians' over-hyped first baseman.

While Garko is where I would expect him to be, some may be surprised by the presence of Youkilis among the "below-average" points/oppertunity crowd.  To that I say, take a look at the numbers.  2.25 pts/opp. is not a bad total at all for someone... especially someone dubbed the "Greek God of Walks."  Think about it.  That means that for every walk Youkilis takes in 2009, he should be expect to (a) score a run, or (b) steal a base... then get caught stealing.  Obviously, option-A is a bit more likely to occur in a line-up as potent as that of the Red Sox.

Above Derrek Lee (our Mason-Dixon line for the purposes of this post) are two virtual unknowns: Kendry Morales (2.28) and John Bowker (2.34).  

The aforementioned Bowker may be a bit of a long shot.  Especially if the Giants sign Joe Crede and shift Pablo Sandoval from 3B to 1B in 2009.  Though Bowker is obviously capable of putting up respecitble points with the increase of opportunity, the Giants may opt for a discounted rate on Crede and give the 25 year-old more time in the minors.

Kendry Morales, on the other hand, is in line to be the Angels' starting first baseman in 2009.  When the Halo's traded Casey Kotchman for a virtual rent-a-player in Mark Teixeira, you had to think that L.A. had some-sort of "ace" up their sleeve.  In this case, the ace was Kendry Morales.  Now, don't get me wrong... the Angels would've loved to bring Teixeira back to to L.A., but Morales may provide a considerable more pop from the 3-spot than Casey Kotchman EVER did during his time with the Halo's.

Moving on from our first base mashers, let's take a look at a few OPS superstars for points-based fantasy baseball leagues.  The top-dog in the yard is everyone's favorite Cardinal, Albert Pujols (1.06).  I'm sorry.  But if you have a player who's averaging a point per plate appearance... you should thank your lucky stars on a night basis.  Pujols and Ryan Howard (1.00) are the only first basemen who top the 1-point threshold... which is absurd.  It doesn't take a rocket scientist to tell you that if you can get your hands on one of these fantasy-monsters... pull the trigger and get in while the getting's good.

The average players in this category surround Adrian Gonzalez (.83).  Below Gonzalez are seriously, a bunch of fantasy scrubs.  The first two are Paul Konerko (.82) and Adam LaRoche (.81), both of whom, as everyone who's owned them know, are hugely overrated at this point in their careers.

To me, the best value in the Top-12 in the pts/pa category is Joey Votto (.91), who places above perennial All-Stars Justin Morneau (.86), Kevin Youkilis (.85), and Carlos Pena (.87).  Also, a bit above Votto is everyone's favorite vegan, Prince Fielder (.91) and new hundred-million-dollar-man, Mark Teixeira (.95).

To say the least, you could probably draft Votto 5 rounds (if not more) behind the majority of these first basemen.  If you're a Bill James supporter, look for Joey V. to bust it out in '09, and be a regular contributer for both the Reds and your fantasy baseball team.

Fantasy Baseball Prep: Catchers

Using The Bill James Handbook as my primary resource, I calculated the point totals for each player in the Catcher position based on the table I posted earlier.  

In 2009, I feel like there's going to be a number of new catchers entering the forefront.  For the most part, these players are those who were once in a platoon or are rookies/second-year players who finally reached the bigs.  In order to gauge what their "point-potential" may be for 2009, I created two new categories: "points per opportunity" and "points per plate appearance."  

Essentially, points per opportunity (pts/opp.) is the number of points each player makes when doing something ASIDE from making an out.  This statistic divides the total number of points by the hits and walks of a given player.  For me, this statistic is the SLG% of a points-based fantasy league.  You're able to see who does the most when they connect.  The average PTS/OPP. in this instance was 2.22.

Benjie Molina (2.22), Kenji Johjima (2.23), Ramon Hernandez (2.23), and A.J. Pierzynski (2.21) are all examples of an average player using this statistic.

While Johjima wasn't a starting catcher in my fantasy league last year, I'm surprised to see players who were (Molina, Hernandez, and Pierzynski) lumped in the same group.  What does this tell us?  Not that Johjima is going to bounce back... rather, that 2009 may represent a changing of the guard at catcher.

This isn't totally surprising to me.  The average age of starters at the catcher position has increased every year (I know, that sounds logical and stupid), rather than staying the same.  The reason that I suggest that it's not as "stupid" as it seems is due to the fact that older catchers should be breaking down and younger catchers should be taking their spots.  A couple things prevent this from happening.  First, there are longer contracts being signed by catchers.  In the list above, Johjima, Hernandez, and Molina are all examples of this.  Let's also not forget players like Jorge Posada, who signed a lucrative deal last off-season, and Jason Varitek, who's about to do the same.  Second, catchers are losing their offensive ability before their defense ability.  Exemplifying this are Pudge Rodriguez, the aforementioned Benjie Molina, and Jason Kendell.

Moving to our second and, in my opinion, more-telling statistic, points-per-plate-appearance (PTS/PA) we take a look at the OPS of points-based leagues.  This statistic shows us the number of points each player should accrue each time they step to the plate.  To find this number, I divided the points total of each player by their at-bats (AB) and walks (BB).

The average, in this case, was .74 PTS/PA.  Jeff Clement, Chris Snyder, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia were the three players who represented the "average" in this category.  Personally, I'm so happy about one of the names that this formula spit out.  If you're like me, you've considered Jarrod Saltalamacchia nothing but a long name and nothing else.  Year-after-year I see this guy drafted before the Ryan Doumit's and Chris Iannetta's of the league and can't help but scratch my head...  This statistic has justified what I've thought all along, "Salty's" nothing but an average player at this point in his career.

Toping this list is, not-surprisingly, Mike Napoli, who should get regular AB's for the Angels in 2009.  The problem with Napoli has never been his consistency at the plate... in fact, he's mashed whenever he's been healthy-enough to do so.  Bill James' projection reveals a .93 PTS/PA for Napoli.  To put that in perspective, the other players with a .93 PTS/PA are Manny Ramirez, Evan Longoria, and Chase Utley.  Household name much?

Of the top-tier of catchers, Brian McCann (.87) is the only player listed in the Top-5 (Russell Martin is #7, Victor Martinez is #14, and Jorge Posada is #13).  With this known, I would wait until Russell Martin is drafted to pick up McCann.  I say this because, I feel that people are beginning to sour on the injury issues surrounding Victor Martinez and Jorge Posada.  While both players bat in high-powered line-ups, I think their age and injury problems are enough to turn off a healthy portion of "informed" fantasy owners.

Fantasy Baseball Prep: Bill James Handbook

For Christmas this year, I made three requests: 

(1) Beyond Belief, by Josh Hamilton

(2) Coldplay's Viva la Vida

(3) Bill James' 2009 Bill James Handbook

As you can tell from the title of this post, I received only one of these gifts... and for that I am thankful.

Nothing against Josh Hamilton or Chris Martin and the guys of Coldplay, I'm sure their respective products are great (and Grammy-nominated in some cases), but Bill James' 2009 Handbook is a priceless necessity to my fantasy baseball preparation.

Now, I don't expect everyone to begin their fantasy prep at the beginning of January, but, in all honestly, I couldn't wait to dive into James' predictions and see what he's forecasting for a few batters in 2009.

Two days ago, I started my journey through pages and pages of statistics.  Who would be this year's Carlos Quentin?  Who would be this year's Robinson Cano?  Who did I forget about already?

To say the least, any free moment I had in the past few days as been devoted to sitting in an uncomfortable chair, hunching over my copy of The Bill James Handbook, and crunching numbers in search of a few diamonds in the rough.

Over the next few days, I'm going to remind you all of a few players you should re-familiarize yourself with in the months leading up to Spring Training.  Before, I do this, however, I want to give you an indication of the scoring system for my fantasy league.  This is seen below:

I'll throw of the pitching categories later on... but for now, I'm focusing strictly on the offensive side of the playing field.  The rundown of events will begin today with Catchers, followed by First basemen, Second, Third, Short, OF, and Utility.  Again, all my statistical projections will be derived from those of Bill James and his team, so stay tuned.

***Addendum***

Fantasy Baseball Prep: Catchers

Fantasy Baseball Prep: First Base

Fantasy Baseball Prep: Second Base

Fantasy Baseball Prep: Third Base

Fantasy Baseball Prep: Shortstop

Fantasy Baseball Prep: Outfield