Manny Ramirez... taking attention away from a certain young hurler

Thank God for Manny Ramirez.  Not only does he have the best hair in baseball, but now he's also hogging the Hollywood spotlight and I LOVE IT!  Not because I enjoy living vicariously through the most abominable baseball players, but because it takes some attention off other Dodger players who may be on the cusp of fantasy (and baseball) dominance/stardom/relevance (take your pick).

Look back a few months to how much attention Clayton Kershaw received in May.  Dodger fans and fantasy aficionados treated this kid like the second coming of the Messiah while others (like myself) found more reliable options while Kershaw took his hits before being demoted to Triple-A.

Now, about two month later, I am ready to jump on board the Clayton Kershaw express.  He's pitched two efficient, impressive games in a row and hasn't allowed an earned run in 13.1 consecutive innings.  His walks have been cut down over this span and his innings have increased.

Basically, my official recommendation with this kid is to grab him and watch what happens.  If you have the room, take a flier and cross your fingers that he does exactly what Chad Billingsley did at the end of 2007 (straight up dominate).

Takashi Saito Update: Dear Lord No!

So it's not season-ending surgery... but it's a Kelvim Escobar-esque rehab.  Essentially, what the Dodgers have informed us all is that Takashi Saito could have surgery, but, in the interest of the organization's play-off aspirations, he's going to take six weeks off and attempt to rehab afterwards.

So this leaves Saito owners who did not grab Jonathan Broxton in a sticky situation...  Personally, as you 

may have noticed in my last post, I am one of these owners.  Due to the short week, I am looking at favorable match-ups that may pay an immediate dividend for me before considering Saito's long-term replacement on my fantasy team.

The most interesting option to me, is Glen Perkins of the Twins.  He's on a decent role with the Twinkies and is matched up against a somewhat flammable Kevin Millwood.  Though he's facing off against the Rangers, Perkins will be staring down a Home Run Derbied-out Josh Hamilton and two All-Star Game wearied Rangers in Michael Young (who finally ended this madness as I write) and Ian Kinsler.

Over his past three starts, Perkins has been kind of impressive:

June 30:  6.1 Innings, 7 Hits, 2 Earned Runs, 1 Walk, and 7 Strike Outs

July 6:  7.0 Innings, 7 Hits, 3 Earned Runs, 1 Walk, and 3 Strike Outs

July 11:  6.2 Innings, 6 Hits, 2 Earned Runs, 2 Walks, and 2 Strike Outs

In all CBS Sports Fantasy leagues, Perkins has only a 24% ownership.  So, if you're looking for a quick fix for the upcoming short week (and can't get Jonathan Broxton), that's the direction I'd go.

I'll be back on later today with some long term replacements for Saito.  In the meanwhile, take a look at the three undervalued starters I mentioned last week and a few hot July pitchers I mentioned a few weeks ago.

Saito Watch

Not to be confused with fellow baseball blogger Mike Plugh's Yuki Saito Watch, this Saito watch surrounds the current elbow ailment of L.A. Dodger closer Takashi Saito.  Despite the All Star Break, I'm sure that anyone who has Saito on their fantasy team has been at work refreshing Dodger message boards, Rotoworld, et al. in hopes that some news on this morning's MRI would be revealed.

However, unlike Alex Rodriguez and Scott Boras during last fall's World Series debut, Joe Torre and the Dodgers decided it would be a good idea to wait until after the Home Run Derby and All Star Game to let the world know what exactly is going on with Takashi Saito.  Sure it's a classy move... but what else would you expect from an organization run by Joe Torre...

Yet...  I can't help but feel a bit selfish.  As a Saito owner, I want to know if I'm wasting my time (not to mention a roster spot) with this 38 year-old closer.  I know what you're thinking... and I can't blame you for asking:  "Fadds, what about Jonathan Broxton?  You picked him up... right?"

My answer:  "Don't Ask."  I spent an entire weekend with my girlfriend.  Pools, Barbecues, Beer, Carnivals, you name it...  I was there.  It was fantastic.  But... it cost me Jonathan Broxton.  I'm not upset about it... far from it.  I just want an answer already!  Let me know if it's time for me to add Manny Corpas before Brian Fuentes is traded to either the Yankees or the Phillies  (which is a pick up I recommend looking into if you're starved for Saves).

For the latest news on Saito, I've been checking his ProTrade page.  They're fairly pessimistic... but I like that straight shooting when it comes to guys on my team.  Personally, I wouldn't cut Saito loose just yet... wait for the calm, soothing voice of Joe Torre to let you down easy before making a drastic move like that.

I'll be back tomorrow to let you know who I am looking at as possible replacements for Saito on my team and yours.  Until then, have a night cap and attempt to get some sleep despite this uneasy news (especially if you're a team with play-off aspirations).

Clayton Kershaw: An Analysis

Yesterday when I logged onto Rotoworld, I noticed a short note coming from the Los Angeles Dodgers' official homepage: "Clayton Kershaw was pulled from his start for Double-A Jacksonville after just one inning on Thursday, suggesting that he's on his way to the majors." I was almost moved to pick this kid up for my team and ride him to the Promised Land. I have missed out, in years past, on the likes of Francisco Liriano, Yovanni Gallardo, and (this year) Edison Volquez. Of course, it was my own fault. I was slow to action and, as a result, I lost the opportunity to bolster my rotation for the second half of the season.

As of right now, I am still incredibly slow to act on this young man... but I am not so sure that my pensive approach is completely unwarranted. Let's take a step back here. Yes, Clayton Kershaw is better than Esteban Loaiza. Yes, despite his bad record in Double-A this season (0-3) his numbers (2.21 ERA in 36 2/3 innings) have been incredible. Yes, Joe Torre is his manager. Of those three yeses, Joe Torre is my biggest concern. It's hard to say if the way in which the likes of Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, and Joba Chamberlain were handled under the 2007 Yankees had a lot or a little to do with Torre... but, for fantasy purposes, I am sure that I don't want the 2008 version of any of those players.

Let's just take a minute and look at the comparables of a few of the young pitchers who have come up to the bigs over the past few years. For me, Innings Pitches is the most important category, as it demonstrates a potential innings limit any potential starter may see as a big league pitcher. There's no way a Major League franchise risks its future on a guy who has barely seen 100 IP in a season while on the farm. Here's a look at a few of the young arms of yesteryear:

Phil Hughes, NYY: In 2005, 85.4 Innings effective innings with 93 strikeouts and a 0.87 WHIP. So for as many batters as Hughes dominates in the strikeout department, he wasn't allowing terribly many base runners while on the hill either. In 2006, 146 IP, 168 K's, and a 0.87 WHIP, demonstrating, again, that Hughes was absolutely dominating from the full wind up. However, as Yankee fans remember from the 2007 version of Phil Hughes, he had difficultly pitching from the stretch. He was so dominating in the minors, that the scarcity of base runners handicapped his ability to perfect pitching from the stretch.

Francisco Liriano, MIN: Here's Liriano's IP over his minor league career:

2001: 71
2002: 80
2003 (Injury Shortened): 9
2004: 156.2
2005: 191.1

Here's the next extreme. Liriano was making steady progress in '01 and '02 before his injury shortened '03. Then, out of no where, he was somehow allowed to throw 150+ innings a year after coming off an debilitating injury (which is ridiculous when looking at these numbers, but I digress). In 2005, the Twins saw Liriano nearly throw 200 innings in Double-A, Triple-A, and the Majors. In 2006, we all saw what happened, Liriano threw 121 innings, and blew his arm out. Obviously, Liriano's 2006 injury, as well as the injuries to high-profile prospects like Mark Prior and Kerry Wood (years ago), has led to a different approach for some organizations when dealing with pitching prospects, a la 2007 Yankees.

Yovanni Gallardo, MIL: To me, Gallardo was dealt with the best of these three prospects. In 2004, he threw 26.2 IP. In 2005, Gallardo took a huge leap with 121.1 IP for Single-A West Virginia. In 2006, between Single-A and Double-A he, again, increased his workload with 155 IP. In 2007, as we all remember, he threw a combined 188 IP between Triple-A and MLB. Gallardo received the most pampering and, therefore, provided the Brewers with a dominating ace that only a freak injury could snatch away.

And now, we return to our old friend Clayton Kershaw. Which of these three paths will he follow? Let's take a look:

In 2006, Kershaw threw 37 innings in the rookie league. In 2007, between Single and Double-A, Kershaw threw 122 innings, a huge increase over his rookie league campaign. Thus far in 2008, he's thrown 43.1 innings, striking out 47, with a 1.09 WHIP. Looking back over the last three years, the only Hughesian WHIP he's ever maintained was in the rookie league, after that he's allowed enough base runners to work on his pitching from the stretch.

However, the Liriano/Prior/Wood problem, as we've seen last year with the '07 Yankees, is something that is usually fresh on Joe Torre's mind. Hughes, Kennedy, and Chamberlain were all kept on a strict innings limit and, in 2008, the Dodgers have announced that they do not want Kershaw throwing more that 25 innings a month. Torre has shown in seasons past that the front offices' wish is his command when it comes to decisions such as this one.

Does your team really need a guy who, at most will be throwing 5-6 innings a start. Remember how frustrating Felix Hernandez was two years ago when Seattle placed the same inning limitations on him? Combine these inning limitations with the fact that Kershaw is a strikeout pitcher and his fantasy owners will be lucky if he makes it out of the 4th inning for each start.
It's a shame that this is the situation, but if I were the Dodgers, I'd look to the way in which the Brewers managed Yovanni Gallardo and deal with Kershaw in this same way. For me, I passed on Kershaw for this year and picked up his compete antithesis: Jake Westbrook, and innings-eater.